Inbox: Free agency expectations for 2020

Beat reporter Rhett Bollinger answers questions from Angels fans

October 28th, 2019

ANAHEIM -- With the World Series set to wrap up either Tuesday or Wednesday, things will start to heat up this offseason for the Angels, who already officially introduced Joe Maddon as manager on Thursday and are close to hiring Mickey Callaway as pitching coach.

The Angels are expected to be aggressive in free agency, which begins five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible players become free agents a day after the Fall Classic ends, and there is a five-day quiet period where teams must decide on club options and whether to extend qualifying offers to eligible free agents. After that five-day period, free agency begins, which brings us right into the first question of this week’s Inbox.

Owner Arte Moreno said at Maddon’s press conference that payroll will go up this offseason, which is a clear sign that the Halos they will be looking to improve their rotation via free agency. The Angels had an Opening Day payroll of roughly $160 million in 2019, which was the ninth-highest in Major League Baseball.

The luxury tax threshold in 2020 is $208 million, and considering the Angels have roughly $35 million coming off the books after signing Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Cody Allen, Jonathan Lucroy and Justin Bour to one-year deals, they should have flexibility without having to come near the threshold. They could also save money by opting not to pick up Kole Calhoun’s $14 million option.

The Angels do have about $115 million committed to Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Zack Cozart, Andrelton Simmons and Justin Upton, and they could have up to 11 players eligible for arbitration. But even with that, they still have long-term flexibility as only Trout, Pujols and Upton are signed beyond 2020.

It’ll be very interesting to see what kind of contract Gerrit Cole is looking for, especially after a stellar showing in the postseason, but the Angels are willing to spend and have the ability to take on a long-term contract. Moreno wouldn’t say how much the payroll will go up by this offseason, but with the decision to hire both Maddon and Callaway, it’s evident the Angels are looking to win right away after four straight losing seasons.

The Angels are going to look at just about every available starting pitcher this offseason. Just for reference’s sake, here’s the list of all free-agent starting pitchers who accrued at least two Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this season, per Fangraphs: Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey, Madison Bumgarner, Cole, Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, Wade Miley, Ivan Nova, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Tanner Roark, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Stephen Strasburg (if he opts out), Adam Wainwright and Zack Wheeler.

Cole obviously stands out above the rest, but Bumgarner, Ryu, Strasburg and Wheeler are all intriguing arms, while Hamels is from Southern California and has a history with Maddon. And of course, the Angels could also look to go the trade route. But the Angels need to add at least two starting pitchers this offseason to try to fix a rotation that finished with the second-worst ERA in the Majors this season.

It is a bit awkward that general manager Billy Eppler has just one year left on his deal after having his option picked up late last season, while the Angels hired Maddon to a three-year deal. But all indications are that Maddon and Eppler are on the same page in a lot of respects.

The have similar viewpoints in many areas, including roster construction and the marriage between analytics and old-school philosophies. Also, Maddon made it clear that he wants Eppler to stay beyond this season. Maddon said he plans to manage the Angels longer than his three-year contract, and his plan is for Eppler to be with him as part of that pact.

It’s also very obvious just from their interactions that Moreno and Maddon get along really well, which is why it was an easy decision for both Maddon and the Angels for him to be the club’s next manager.

But the bottom line is, it’s going to be a very important offseason for Eppler. The Angels can’t afford to make mistakes like last winter when they struck out on signing big free agents and settled for veterans on one-year contracts, who all struggled mightily.

Eppler has rebuilt the farm system as promised, and he signed Shohei Ohtani and extended Trout, which are all huge accomplishments. But now it’s about fixing their starting pitching, which creates a make-or-break year for Eppler.

That’s still the expectation with Ohtani in the rotation, as he’s still expected to pitch roughly once a week while serving as designated hitter three or four days a week. But the Angels haven’t formally announced a plan for Ohtani next year, especially now that they have a new manager and pitching coach. Ohtani is also still rehabbing after left knee surgery, and he is expected to start ramping his throwing program back up in late November.

But having Ohtani start on Sundays like he did in his rookie season still does make sense, and it would mean the Angels would need a six-man rotation or at least several spot starts by a sixth starter next season. So it’s just another reason why they need to add multiple starters this offseason.