CHICAGO -- When asked about the importance of a particular game or stretch within a season, Cubs manager Craig Counsell has more than once told the story of a teammate he had during his playing career who arrived each day with the same mantra.
“Biggest game of the year.”
“He did it on April 1. He did it on September 30,” Counsell said. “And it was because, yep, that’s what’s in front of you. And that was the point of it. And he was teaching you something when he said that.”
It is important throughout a long season to maintain that type of grounded workmanlike mentality in an effort to avoid the trap of overreacting to a hot streak or a prolonged slump. This Cubs team has certainly experienced both extremes, with Friday afternoon’s 18-3 rout at the hands of the Giants at Wrigley Field -- one day after a wild 7-6 comeback win over the A’s offering the latest loops in the roller coaster.
And while that approach is crucial for the players who occupy the clubhouse and take the field, the decision-makers in the front office have to start gauging the next phase of this season. The Trade Deadline will arrive on Aug. 3, giving teams roughly two months to evaluate the level of aggressiveness that is appropriate.
As the Cubs look to keep digging out of the hole created over the last few frustrating weeks, there are indeed a lot of “biggest” games of the year looming. The Cubs’ level of play in the two months ahead will influence how president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer tackles the need for pitching reinforcements for the rotation and bullpen.
“We just have to play better. That’s the priority,” Hoyer said. “It’s pretty clear what our needs are going to be. Our position-player group is deep and it’s pretty set. The backbone of this team is our position players. They have to play well for us to be a good team. That’s not going to change at the Deadline.
“I think, obviously, we’ll be looking at pitching at that point, but sitting here talking about the Deadline, given how we’ve played, seems like the wrong thing to talk about. We have to play better.”
The Cubs need positive regression to kick in for some of their key veterans like Alex Bregman and Dansby Swanson. Chicago needs the law of averages to show up after the team hit .157 as a group with runners in scoring position in the 23-game stretch prior to Thursday night’s walk-off win. The Cubs need the respective returns of Edward Cabrera (activated Friday) and Matthew Boyd (later this month) from the injured list to offer a boost to the rotation.
“That’s how, ultimately, you get back to winning ways,” Hoyer said. “Your offense gets back to clicking and you churn out good starts.”
Cabrera showed rust on Friday, allowing eight runs on eight hits -- including homers from Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Casey Schmitt -- in 3 2/3 innings. And a lineup that rallied for four runs on seven hits in the ninth on Thursday followed that up with three late runs -- one via a solo homer by Seiya Suzuki -- against San Francisco.
With the game blown open, Cubs catcher Carson Kelly took on the mound in the ninth, allowing the final two of the Giants’ seven homers.
The question that Cubs fans will want to know is whether Hoyer will try to pull off a blockbuster -- like taking a big swing for Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. If Chicago’s play does not improve much, playing things more safe and targeting pitching depth could be the response.
Asked if a team’s World Series odds could impact aggressiveness at the Deadline, Hoyer pointed instead to the odds of securing a first-round bye. On May 8, when Chicago finished a run of 20 wins in 23 games, the team had 37.5% odds of a bye, per FanGraphs. That percentage had dwindled to 2.5% entering play on Friday.
“Getting a bye is such a big deal,” Hoyer said. “The aggressiveness, a lot of it’s based on the ability to get a bye.”
That is why this section of schedule the Cubs are in right now could prove critical.
Friday’s game was the fourth within a 22-game period against the A’s, Giants, Rockies, Blue Jays and Mets. Those five teams entered June with a collective .431 (128-169) winning percentage. To frame that differently, that is a 69-win pace for a 162-game season. The Cubs should expect to rack up wins against teams in that category.
“I don’t know when it’s time not to capitalize,” Counsell said. “That’s why you bring the same thing every day. We’ve got a job to do and I don’t think it changes where we’re playing, who we’re playing, what time of the year it is. And that’s how you have to approach this.”