It's Skenes vs. the Dominican lineup -- who has the edge?

It's the matchup everyone's been waiting for at the World Baseball Classic, the tournament's unstoppable force meeting its immovable object: Paul Skenes vs. the Dominican Republic lineup.

"It’s going to be electric," United States pitcher Logan Webb said.

"I expect it to be one of the best games of all time," said U.S. manager Mark DeRosa.

Skenes will take the ball for Team USA in the semifinals against the D.R. on Sunday night at loanDepot park in Miami. He's the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner and the best pitcher left in the WBC. But the superstar Dominican Republic hitters have overwhelmed everyone they've faced, belting 14 home runs and scoring 51 runs through five games.

"That’s why we’re sending Mr. Skenes out there," Pete Crow-Armstrong said.

To send the U.S. through to the championship game for a second straight Classic, Skenes will have to shut down a lineup with Fernando Tatis Jr., Ketel Marte, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado, Junior Caminero and Julio Rodríguez … and those are just the biggest names.

No one's been able to stop them yet.

"We have many horses, many superstars on our team," Machado said earlier this week. "We have something different, and it's that we know that we are good. It doesn't depend on the pitcher we are going to face. It could be Skenes or [Venezuela's Eduardo Rodriguez] the other day. No matter what, we are going to execute our game plan. We are good at that, and that's our goal, that's our mindset."

But if anyone can, it's Skenes. So who has the edge?

Here are three keys to the heavyweight showdown between Skenes and the D.R.

1) Will the D.R. be ready for Skenes' velocity?

The Dominican Republic has been teeing off on opposing starters all tournament long. But Skenes is going to be the most overpowering pitcher it has seen in the 2026 WBC. By a lot.

Skenes' fastballs averaged 97.4 mph in his first start against Mexico. That's over four full mph faster than any starting pitcher the D.R. has faced at the WBC. The Dominican Republic's quarterfinal opponent, Korea, had 38-year-old former MLB southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu out there throwing in the high 80s.

SP fastball velocity vs. Team D.R. at 2026 WBC

• Eduardo Rodriguez (Venezuela): 93.2 mph
• Arij Fransen (Netherlands): 92.4 mph
• Ronald Medrano (Nicaragua): 90.6 mph
• Hyun Jin Ryu (Korea): 88.9 mph
• Ryan Prager (Israel): 87.2 mph
• Skenes vs. Mexico: 97.4 mph (4-seamer/sinker combined)

Skenes topped out at 99.7 mph in his WBC debut. The fastest fastball the D.R. hitters have seen from a starter is the same speed as the slowest fastball Skenes threw against Mexico: 95.3 mph (by Rodriguez in their game vs. Venezuela). They've only faced two fastballs from a starting pitcher at 95-plus, out of 111 total. All 37 heaters Skenes threw to Mexico were faster than that.

The average fastball faced by a Dominican Republic hitter from a starting pitcher in this tournament is just 90.8 mph, fifth-slowest in the 20-team field. There's a big leap from that to Skenes. Will the D.R. hitters be able to adjust?

Well, it just so happens that many of the Dominicans' best hitters crush high velocity. Caminero, J-Rod and Soto are particularly dangerous from a slugging perspective. Last year, across the regular season and playoffs, only 15 MLB hitters had at least four home runs against pitches thrown 97 mph or faster, which is the range Skenes is going to sit in. The D.R. trio was all in that group.

Vlad Jr., Tatis and Marte can also handle big heat. Guerrero batted .329 against 97-plus mph fastballs in 2025. Tatis batted .346. Marte batted .344.

A few Dominican hitters, like Machado, were more prone to swing and miss or strike out against high-velocity fastballs. But a lot of this lineup will be tough to just blow away.

2) Who are the most dangerous hitters for Skenes, and who are the most vulnerable?

Of course, Skenes' fastballs are far from his only weapon. He has a seven-pitch arsenal -- four-seam fastball, sinker, splitter, changeup, sweeper, slider, curveball -- and it's all power stuff.

"He’s got a great repertoire of pitches," Team USA's Bryce Harper said. "And the way he goes out there and commands himself, and the way he goes out there and commands the zone, as well -- it’s a tough lineup, but they’re going to have their work cut out for them with Paul."

Skenes likes to attack right-handed hitters with four-seamers up, sinkers in and sweepers away. He likes to attack lefties with high heat and then throw his pair of offspeed pitches, the splitter and changeup, down and away.

Based on those pitch combinations, and what Skenes' versions of those pitches look like, what are some especially interesting matchups to watch against the Dominican Republic hitters?

Soto -- big surprise -- could be a particularly intense battle. Historically, he hits well against all three of Skenes' main weapons for left-handed hitters: high-velocity four-seamers, splitters and changeups that all have a lot of arm-side run. It will be difficult even for Skenes to stop Soto from hitting the ball hard.

Rodríguez is another hitter to watch. Skenes likes to hammer his sinker-sweeper combo against righties -- upper-90s turbo sinkers that run sharply in on the hitter's hands, and mid-80s sweepers that break sharply away in the opposite direction. But in 2025, J-Rod teed off against sinkers and sweepers that were similar to Skenes' in their velocity and horizontal movement.

Skenes could find an advantage over D.R. right-handed hitters like Machado and Caminero if he goes after them with his sweeper, as they're weaker against power sweeper-type pitches like his (you can sometimes get Vlad Jr. to whiff against those sweepers, too, but he hits them hard if you miss your spot). And Tatis is weaker against turbo sinkers like the ones Skenes throws ... but dangerous against the four-seamers and sweepers.

As far as the lefties, Marte can sometimes have a hard time with offspeed pitches that profile like Skenes' splitter, and his D-backs teammate Geraldo Perdomo doesn't make great contact against ones that profile like Skenes' changeup.

A pitch here or a pitch there to any of the big Dominican bats could decide the game. We'll see if Skenes can make those pitches.

3) Will Skenes try something new?

Skenes has the pitch combinations he favors to each kind of hitter, but when you're a seven-pitch Cy Young beast, you don't only throw those main combos.

The Pirates ace can mix it up. He did it to Mexico in WBC pool play. Maybe he'll have a surprise in store for the Dominican Republic, too.

Against Mexico, Skenes' unexpected weapon was the front-door sinker. Normally, he doesn't throw a lot of sinkers to left-handed hitters -- it was his least-used pitch against them in 2025, with just 2% usage.

But he threw a bunch of sinkers to the Mexican lefties, namely Rays All-Star Jonathan Aranda and slugger Rowdy Tellez, to steal called strikes on pitches that started inside but came back over the plate.

Facing maybe the most fearsome lineup of his career, don't be surprised if Skenes breaks out another weapon he thinks the Dominican hitters won't be expecting.

These at-bats are all going to be battles. Skenes will have to work hard to set up those vulnerabilities against the D.R. hitters. But the D.R. hitters will have to work just as hard to cover Skenes' entire nasty arsenal, especially if he throws a twist into how he uses it.