Inbox: Will top prospect Tucker be dealt?

Beat reporter Brian McTaggart fields fans' questions

July 29th, 2019

HOUSTON -- Now that the Astros’ offense is at full strength health-wise and they’re essentially tied with the Yankees for the best record in the American League, all eyes turn toward Wednesday’s 3 p.m. CT Trade Deadline. Houston, like many teams, is in the market for starting pitcher, but it could also bolster its bullpen and catching situation as well.

Last year, the Astros added closer and All-Star reliever at the non-waiver Trade Deadline -- a pair of key moves that allowed them to rebuild their bullpen on the fly. Two years ago, they added pitcher Francisco Liriano at the Deadline and added Justin Verlander via a waiver trade on Aug. 31 -- a move that sparked a run to the World Series. There is only one Trade Deadline this year, so if president of baseball operations and general manager Jeff Luhnow has any moves remaining, we’ll know in the next few days.

Let’s open the Inbox for some of your questions regarding the Astros and specifically the Trade Deadline:

? Trade bait for a starter?
-- @JamesWi62221185

Tucker, the Astros’ top-ranked prospect and No. 13 overall by MLB Pipeline, could be the key to getting a deal done for an impact starting pitcher. Luhnow has been reluctant to trade his premier prospects in years past, and it’s clear Houston would love to hold onto the 22-year-old Tucker, who’s had an up-and-down season at Triple-A Round Rock.

Tucker likely doesn’t get regular at-bats in the Astros’ stacked lineup until next year at the earliest, and that’s assuming veteran is moved for the final year of his deal. If not, , and Reddick will all be back next year in their final seasons before free agency, so Tucker’s playing time might not emerge until 2021. He’s playing a little bit of first base this year, but first baseman ’s rejuvenation at the plate has been one of this season’s biggest storylines in Houston.

Tucker has a .260/.344/.561 slash line with 27 homers, 75 RBIs and 23 stolen bases through 96 games for the Express. After a slow start in which he had a .599 OPS in April, Tucker got his season on track in May (1.169 OPS) and June (1.1013 OPS), though he has slipped in July (.197/.329/.364). The Astros may have to decide in the next couple of days if it’s worth moving him or keeping him and hoping he will blossom into a cornerstone player.

If we are not going to trade Tucker, then how will we provide him a chance to prove himself in the big leagues? Should we wait until roster expansion?
--
@spdlife26

Tucker will get his chance eventually. As stated above, the entire starting outfield will be free agents after the 2021 season, so at least one of those spots will be available for Tucker to take. As far as this year, the consistent at-bats won’t be there for Tucker, barring an injury. He’s certainly not going to play over Brantley and Springer -- both All-Stars -- and Reddick brings value on offense and defense, as well as leadership. Gurriel’s terrific July has him entrenched at first, and rookie is mashing at designated hitter.

Tucker should get called up in September and should do whatever he can to impress the big league staff, because his time is coming. That’s if the Astros don’t trade him.

Where does the Astros’ Minor League system rank prospect-wise these days? By reports, they are no longer considered among the top systems due to promotions, trades, injuries, etc. How does that impact their Deadline approach and planning for 2020?
-- @briandewan73

The Astros’ Minor League system is still highly regarded, though certainly not like it has been in years past. That’s to be expected following a number of trades that have impacted the depth, as well as the promotion of players like Alvarez to the big leagues and an injury to pitcher Corbin Martin. Houston’s system is generally regarded as middle of the pack and certainly outside the Top 10, where it had been for so many years. Still, there’s enough in the cupboard to get a deal done. That could begin and end with elite prospects like Tucker, right-handed pitcher Forrest Whitley (No. 17) and slugger Seth Beer (No. 100). But pitchers J.B. Bukauskas and Bryan Abreu have considerable trade value as well.

Starting pitcher, backup/starting caliber catcher and relief pitcher. Do you think the Astros address all three before the Deadline?
--
@_King1103

That would be an ideal scenario for the Astros, but I don’t see them being able to address all three of those areas. It might be easier to add a relief pitcher at this point and get someone to impact the club. How many Houston fans had heard of Pressly at this time last year? Catching may be more difficult because there’s not a lot of quality catching on the market that would be considered an upgrade. The club had interest in a reunion with Martin Maldonado, who was traded to the Cubs from the Royals (and could be available again). Everybody seemingly is in the market for starting pitching, so it’s a not a given the Astros will be able to get a deal done there, either.

Can you talk about Alvarez's development in the outfield? Is he practicing? Getting better? If we go to the World Series, is he only playing in half the games?
-- @reyguerra

Alvarez takes fly balls during batting practice and has worked with outfield coach Gary Pettis. I mean, he’s able to make the routine plays in the outfield, and as long as he can do that and hit the cutoff man, you will see him in the outfield now and then. Alvarez has been bothered by a sore left knee in the past couple of weeks that has made manager AJ Hinch reluctant to play him out there more.

Still, Alvarez is only 22, so being labeled as a designated hitter only at this point of his career isn’t ideal. I’d be surprised if we don’t see Alvarez pick up some first base this offseason and into Spring Training to increase his versatility and give him a better chance of staying on the field.

As far as the World Series, that’s a problem the Astros would love to have.

So with the Trade Deadline approaching, and all the rumors swirling, what are the odds the Astros sign during offseason? Is it foregone conclusion he's gone after this season?
-- @rattlehead79

Owner Jim Crane should offer Cole seven years for $200 million right this second to get a feel for their chances, and if he accepts, then great. I think it’s at least worth putting an offer out there to Scott Boras before the offseason.
-- @stros19wschamps

has thrust himself into the thick of the AL Cy Young Award race with the kind of run he’s been on since the end of May. He’s been one of the most dominant pitchers in the game and is on track for 300 strikeouts. Boras, his agent, hinted earlier this season at Minute Maid Park that Cole would hit free agency after the season. Cole likes Houston and is certainly open to returning, but he’ll have no shortage of suitors. He’s a West Coast guy and would likely love a return to California.

In the end, it’s going to come down to money. Cole could command north of $200 million, and maybe well beyond that. The Astros already have more than $120 million in payroll committed for next year, and that doesn’t include Springer, Osuna, Lance McCullers Jr. and Carlos Correa. That could be another $40 million. In other words, it would be challenging for Houston to add the contract of a player making $25 million to $30 million a year, though certainly not impossible.