How Astros fans should watch Yanks-Tribe G5
Having dispatched with the Red Sox in the American League Division Series presented by Doosan, the Astros now have three days off before starting the American League Championship Series presented by Camping World on Friday.• Dress for October: Shop for Astros postseason gear And given that the Astros are one
Having dispatched with the Red Sox in the American League Division Series presented by Doosan, the Astros now have three days off before starting the American League Championship Series presented by Camping World on Friday.
• Dress for October: Shop for Astros postseason gear
And given that the Astros are one of the most analytically inclined teams in baseball, they will surely relish the extra days to have their scouts and data folks dive in on the Indians and Yankees. Against the Red Sox, Astros hitters were clearly prepared, hitting .421 with four homers in the first inning and limiting Boston starting pitchers to a total of 11 1/3 innings pitched across four games.
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There are some complications, of course. They don't know who they're playing. They don't know where they're playing. And they won't know the answers to those questions until late Wednesday night, when the Yankees and Indians play a deciding Game 5 in Cleveland. (If the Yankees win, the Astros will host Game 1. Houston will be on the road if its opponent is Cleveland.)
Those are nice problems to have, obviously. The Astros get to rest their roster, reset their pitchers, and they'll be relaxing Wednesday night while the Yankees and Indians play a high-stress game, perhaps emptying their bullpens while doing so. Still, the outcome matters. Should the Astros prefer to be in Cleveland on Friday, or to welcome the Yankees to Houston?
It's not as clear-cut as it seems, because both Cleveland and New York are very talented clubs with deep bullpens built for October; there's no "easy" option here. If there's a real rooting interest here for Astros fans, it ought to be something along the lines of "a game that goes 17 innings." But this is a choice every fan gets to make for him- or herself, so let's help them along with some information. Here's how the educated Houston fan ought to view Game 5.
Don't get caught up with head-to-head record
When sitting down to enjoy Game 5, what happened during the 2017 regular season might come to mind. The Astros took five of seven from the Yankees while losing five of six to Cleveland, and it's only natural to try to place meaning upon that.
That, however, would be a mistake, because it's been long proven that regular-season success has little meaning in the postseason, partially because teams can look very different weeks or months later. As an example, the Dodgers just swept Arizona out of the postseason, despite going 8-11 against the D-backs this year and being swept by them not once but twice in the last six weeks of the season. It didn't matter. Perhaps most famous in recent history is that the Mets were 0-7 against the Cubs during the 2015 regular season only to sweep them in the NLCS.
Better yet, think about it this way: If the Yankees advance, then the premise is by itself proven false. New York did, after all, lose five of its seven meetings with Cleveland in 2017.
While it's true Houston did well against New York this year, all seven meetings took place by the first week of July, before the Yankees traded for
What matters: Cleveland's roster may be more affected
If there's any reason to want to see the Indians, it might be because of what's going to happen with their rotation now that they're stretched to a Game 5.
Not only that, but Kluber's first start would come on the road. Obviously, he's good anywhere; it's not like his road numbers of a 2.83 ERA and a .266 wOBA allowed are poor. But Kluber has been absolutely spectacular at home, with a 1.81 ERA and a .218 wOBA against, with the latter number being the best of any home starter in baseball this year.
It's not that the Indians don't have other talented starters, of course.
Still, any time you can get in a situation where one of the best pitchers in baseball can't be used to his full capacity, that's a win.
Don't forget, also, that Cleveland's lineup has been somewhat diminished by the ankle injury to
What also matters: The top Yankees pitchers may be less affected
While it's true that the only thing better than seeing Kluber less is not seeing him at all, things are set up differently for the Yankees. As effective as Game 5 starter
But it's worth noting here that the home-field advantage the Astros would hold over the Yankees may not matter as much as you'd think it would. For every example like
That carries through to the team records. At home, the Yankees were an outstanding 51-30, a .630 winning percentage. On the road, that was merely 40-41, or .493. But while the Astros were very good at home (48-33, .593), they were even better away (53-28, .654).
All of which is to say: Don't worry about home field all that much, Astros fans. Both the Yankees and Indians are extremely good teams, capable of reaching and winning the World Series. In Game 5, root for an outcome that weakens one side or the other. Root for Kluber to throw 120 pitches; root for Gray to be called upon to throw four innings of relief; root for many, many extra innings. Mostly, cheer for the Astros; appreciate that they managed to overcome Chris Sale,
After all, no one wants to be playing in a Game 5. Regardless of the opponent, avoiding that situation is the best advantage the Astros could have right now.
Mike Petriello is an analyst for MLB.com and the host of the Statcast podcast.