What to expect from Gorman, Liberatore

May 20th, 2022

Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore have been paired together since they were four and five years old, respectively. You may have heard that before.

The Arizona natives were first teammates on a coach pitch team at that age, played summer ball together in high school and went three picks apart from one another in the 2018 Draft (Liberatore 16th to the Rays, Gorman 19th to the Cardinals). Even when it looked like they could be separated, fate brought them back together when St. Louis traded for Liberatore in January 2020. The pair were roommates at the alternate site that summer and then again at Triple-A Memphis last season.

Of course, they’re headed to the Majors around the same time.

The Cardinals are calling up No. 29 overall prospect Gorman for his MLB debut on Friday on the road against the Pirates. He is expected to start at second base and be an immediate everyday player for St. Louis, which stands 20-18 and four games back of the Brewers in the NL Central. No. 39 overall prospect Liberatore will make his first Major League start one day later in Pittsburgh, the club has confirmed.

Gorman has been known for his power throughout his brief and budding baseball career. He was a Home Run Derby darling before the Draft, winning the 2017 All-Star High School Home Run Derby in Miami, and has carried that tool through to every stop along the way in the Minors.

The lefty slugger joins St. Louis as the Triple-A leader in home runs with 15. That total also sits second in the entire Minor Leagues, two behind fellow Cardinals prospect Moisés Gómez's 17 for Double-A Springfield. Since Gorman entered pro ball in 2018, he leads all St. Louis farmhands with 72 home runs. No one else has hit more than 54 in that span, and the one with 54 is current Rangers outfielder Adolis García.

Gorman’s strength and bat speed have helped him pound the ball in the past, and this season, he has done a better job of elevating the ball with Memphis, allowing him to make better use of his power. His 2021 Triple-A groundball rate of 45 percent has plummeted to 26.5 percent in his return to the level, allowing his slugging percentage to jump from .465 to .677.

Gorman has fit a bit of the classic slugger mold, however, marrying that power with significant potential for whiffs. He has struck out in 34 percent of his plate appearances this season, and his 15.7 swing-and-miss rate is 20th-highest among 120 qualifiers in the International League.

Expect that to continue against Major League pitching, but Gorman’s potential to provide left-handed thump to St. Louis’ lineup can’t be overlooked. Cardinals left-handed batters have hit only five home runs at this point in 2022, tied for second-fewest in the Majors. The injection of Gorman into the lineup could send St. Louis higher up that leaderboard if he’s able to make enough contact out of the chute.

Defensively, much has been made of Gorman’s move from third base to second following the acquisition of Nolan Arenado last year. Gorman has worked extensively with Cardinals coordinator of instruction Jose Oquendo on getting comfortable at the keystone. It’s still a work in progress, but he’s shown enough gains with his footwork and range to be solid enough there. Speaking from New York on Thursday, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol confirmed that Gorman is coming up to play second base with Tommy Edman sliding over to shortstop to make room.

As for Liberatore, there has been no pitcher more experienced at the Triple-A level over the last two seasons. His 169 strikeouts and 164 2/3 innings pitched are both tops among all Triple-A hurlers since the start of the Triple-A season.

The Cardinals, who acquired the southpaw from the Rays in a famous deal involving Randy Arozarena, have been aggressive with Liberatore in the Minor League seasons in which they’ve had him, opening him at Memphis in 2021 at 21 years old when he was Triple-A’s youngest hurler. Most of his 2022 numbers (3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .247 average-against in 40 innings) have been modest improvements over his 2021 editions (4.04 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .257 average-against in 124 2/3 innings), though his strikeout rate has bumped up a healthy amount from 23.7 percent to 28.4.

All four of the 6-foot-4 left-hander’s offerings can be above-average pitches, though nothing may be solidly plus at least on a consistent point. He made two mid-April starts in Charlotte (where we have Statcast data), and in each of those outings, his fastball, slider, curveball and changeup all received at least two whiffs. You can find the April 12 outing here and the April 17 one here.

The heater sits around 92-93 mph but can touch as high as 96 when he needs it. A mid-70s curveball used to be his bread-and-butter breaking pitch, and it can still fool hitters with its vertical, 12-to-6 movement. But his mid-80s slider has overtaken it among the breakers, thanks to its good late break. On April 12, he threw the slider 19 times (24 percent of his pitches) and got a called strike or whiff on nine occasions, resulting in a 47 percent CSW%. Anything above 30 percent is considered good.

Liberatore’s mid-80s changeup can be just as dominant on its day -- it accounted for seven of his 16 whiffs in the April 12 start -- but it doesn’t make him split-proof. Righties have batted .297 off him to begin the season, compared to the lefties’ .164 average through seven starts in Memphis.

Debuting on the road is never easy, but Liberatore could have a solid matchup to get his feet wet. Pirates batters rank 26th in the Majors with a collective 86 wRC+ and are only slightly better on the lefty split leaderboards (87 wRC+, 23rd).

Whatever the splits may be, Liberatore will find some own personal comfort in knowing Gorman has his back on the infield.

“I don’t care as long as he’s behind me,” Liberatore told MLB.com’s John Denton in March. “I have that trust in his ability.”