July 2021 Newsletter

How will the upcoming MLB Draft look after COVID?

On a normal gameday at a Top 25 college baseball stadium, the seats directly behind home plate are dotted with men raising radar guns in synchrony, charting what could be the next big prospect for the professional baseball team they work for.

It’s a sight that was dominant across the college baseball world prior to 2020. And on the nights when a potential No. 1 pick was pitching, it was not uncommon to see 20-30 scouts in attendance. Then, just a few weeks into the 2020 season, everything was shut down in the sports world thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the college baseball season was canceled. Suddenly, those scouts whose job it is to chart the progress of hundreds of players across the country had to figure out how to do so in ways they were not used to yet still provide as thorough a report as possible.

Not only that, but there was very little summer baseball to evaluate talent, and even when the season resumed in 2021, travel and COVID restrictions limited how much evaluation the scouts could do.

All this makes for an interesting process as the 2021 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft begins Sunday, July 11, and current draft-eligible players begin to ponder their future in the game.

But evaluation is just one of the many factors that will play into how the 2022 college baseball landscape will look. Fewer minor league teams means fewer roster spots, a 20-round draft (after only five rounds in 2020) and more draft-eligible players means pro teams will be very choosy in who they select.

“A shortened draft will push a lot of lower-level bonuses into amateur free agent signings,” said Michael Fiore, vice president of the Boras Corporation and a 2014 inductee into the National College Baseball Hall of Fame. “It also will likely lead to fewer draft picks being used late on unsignable amateur players, in particular high school prospects planning on attending college. Teams will be using all 20 rounds to draft players they expect to sign.”

Fiore knows well what it’s like to be a college player hoping to be drafted. He was a standout outfielder at the University of Miami from 1985 to 1988 and won the Dick Howser Trophy as the nation’s best player in 1987. He left Miami holding 12 school offensive records, earning consensus All-American honors in 1988 and a spot on the gold-medal winning 1988 USA Olympic team.

He has served in various roles in his almost 24 years with the Boras Corporation, representing professional athletes in all sports around the world. Fiore’s experience has him particularly plugged in to how COVID has affected and will continue to affect amateur baseball and its relationship with Major League Baseball.

With the draft only a few days away and the chances to evaluate talent dwindling, the time for teams to solidify their draft boards and decide what direction they will go with their picks is at hand.

20 rounds in 2021

The 2020 draft had just five rounds, which left many draft-eligible players with a tough decision to either sign a free agent deal or hold out for potentially more money in 2021 while not knowing how many rounds the draft would be.

Normally, the MLB draft is 40 rounds, but with professional baseball taking big financial hits due to the COVID shutdown, MLB reduced the number of minor league teams throughout the game, which means teams have fewer roster spots needed to fill from the draft.

Therefore, the 2021 draft will be only half of its normal number – 20 rounds. While that’s significantly more than the five rounds of 2020, it still will play a large role in whether many college players sign or go back to school. Not only that, Fiore said, the fewer rounds and lower number of minor league roster spots will alter how teams approach who they draft.

“In 2019, teams typically signed 26-28 players from the amateur draft,” Fiore said. “With one less minor league affiliate per organization, teams don’t necessarily need to sign that many players out of the draft anymore. Between the 20 rounds in the draft and additional amateur free agent signings, teams will be able to fill all their roster needs in the minors. There could be an additional 100-150 players total returning or going to college instead of signing with less rounds and less minor league teams.”

Fiore said the announced slot pool for the top 10 rounds of the draft in 2021 will be almost identical to what it was in 2019 before COVID — around $226 million.

Decisions, decisions

The NCAA announced shortly after the 2020 season that all players who came back to school in 2021 would not lose a year of eligibility. While that certainly benefitted college rosters, it also created a glut of draft-eligible players for 2021.

Not only are those players who were draft eligible in 2020 back in the mix, so is a large group of players who are technically draft-eligible sophomores, not to mention redshirt freshmen who have met the draft age requirement of being at least three years removed from high school.

Fiore said while that creates a larger pool than normal of players to choose from, it also has been detrimental to players who are on teams that returned a wealth of experience this season.

“Teams may be looking to add more new players into their organization after having a limited number of amateur players join last year,” Fiore said. “There also will be a large group of fourth-year juniors eligible this season who were not drafted last year with a five-round draft. Teams have additional leverage over fourth- or fifth-year college players due to age and already completing their academic career.

“Having fewer college upperclassman drafted and signed last season has led to more depth on college teams this season. There is more experience among college players in 2021. While this is a positive for the 2021 season, it also means fewer underclassmen are earning prominent roles on college teams since there are an abnormally high amount of returning upperclassmen.”

That means pro scouts had to ramp up their diligence in evaluating players. Fiore said the problem isn’t more players, but fewer chances for scouts to get out and evaluate. It’s not the process, it’s the access.

Then there’s the high-school factor, which adds even more talent to the pool and will make this draft one of the most intriguing in its history.

“There should be a normal amount of high school players signing out of the draft this season,” Fiore said. “High school signings predominantly occur within the first 20 rounds of the draft. A shortened number of rounds should have very little impact on the total number of high school players electing to sign.”

Artifact of the Month

Stanford head coach Mark Marquess wore this hat during an 11-1 win over California in March 2014. The game marked his 1,500th win and added Marquess’ name to an elite list of only six coaches who have more than 1,500 wins. Marquess led the Cardinal from 1977 to 2017, compiling a 1,627-878-7 career record at his alma mater. He was inducted into the National College Baseball Hall of Fame this year. Watch Marquess and the other members of the 2021 Hall of Fame class be inducted during the Virtual Night of Champions event here.

Where Are They Now

Aaron Nola, right-handed pitcher, LSU

Aaron Nola, the 2014 Pitcher of the Year Award winner, recently tied a 51-year-old Major League Baseball record by striking out 10 consecutive batters. Nola, who pitches for the Philadelphia Phillies, struck out 10 batters in a 2-1 loss to the Mets in the first game of a doubleheader on June 25.

With the 10 consecutive strikeouts, Nola tied Tom Seaver’s 1970 feat. Seaver, who pitched for the Mets, accomplished the record in a 1970 game against the Padres.

“It’s pretty cool being in a category with Tom,” Nola told MLB.com.

Nola also broke the Phillies’ franchise record of eight consecutive strikeouts, a record previously held by Steve Carlton, Curt Shilling and Jerad Eickhoff, according to MLB.com.

“My curveball was effective today,” Nola told MLB.com. “It wasn't popping out of my hand. I was getting swing and misses on that. My changeup wasn't really popping either. I think the key is those pitches were down for the most part all day, and I think that's why I got those swing and misses.”

Nola finished his day with a career-high 12 strikeouts in 99 pitches, according to MLB.com. He also had a good day at the plate with a single in the third inning and an RBI double in the fifth inning, recording the Phillies only run of the game.

“It was tough,” Nola told MLB.com about the loss. “I mean, yeah, it's a cool accomplishment. But winning's cooler, in my opinion.”

Photo courtesy of LSU Athletics

Inductee Spotlight

Jackie Robinson, infielder, Pasadena Junior College/UCLA, 1937-38; 1940

Career Highlights:

Starting shortstop for UCLA in 1940
In his sophomore year at Pasadena JC, hit .417, scored 43 runs and stole 25 bases in 24 games, earning regional MVP honors
Became UCLA’s first four-sport letterman, also gaining fame in football, basketball and track
Recorded four hits and stole four bases, including home plate once, in debut game for the Bruins
Struggled overall in only season of Bruin baseball, hitting just .097
Was hand-picked by Brooklyn Dodgers general manager Branch Rickey to break the color barrier in Major League Baseball
Inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1962
UCLA plays baseball at Jackie Robinson Stadium.
Was named to the Pac-12 All-Century Baseball Team in April 2016

Did you know:

On July 6, 1944, Robinson refused to give up his seat on a U.S. Army bus, and faced a general court-martial, according to the National Archives. Robinson, then a 2nd lieutenant stationed at Camp Hood (today known as Fort Hood), was seated next to a woman the bus driver believed to be white and, because of that, was asked to move to a seat at the back of the bus.

“Robinson, perhaps conscious of being an officer and a husky one at that, refused, suggesting that the driver tend to driving instead,” wrote John Vernon in a Spring 2008 Prologue Magazine, a publication of the National Archives and Records Administration.

Henry Louis Gates Jr. wrote for his magazine, The Root, that “Robinson sat next to Virginia Jones, the wife of one of his fellow officers. Jones looked white — at least the white bus driver thought so. After a few blocks, the driver abruptly ordered Robinson ‘to move to the back of the bus.’ Robinson, justifiably outraged, refused. Among other things, he had read that segregation was no longer allowed on military buses and proceeded to engage in a form of protest prefiguring a similar action by Rosa Parks 11 years later.”

When the bus reached Robinson’s stop, he was met by military police who asked him to accompany them to police headquarters to question him about what had occurred on the bus. According to Vernon, Robinson was repeatedly subjected to racial epithets while being questioned and was alleged to have behaved in a “sloppy and contemptuous” manner. He strenuously denied the allegations being made against him by the bus driver, and after he left the police facility before giving his full version of events, he was taken back to the military hospital under guard and under protest.

“He subsequently learned that his behavior had been construed as so spectacularly incorrect that he would now be subjected to a general court-martial,” Vernon wrote. “The justification given was that he had committed a number of monstrously serious transgressions — including the show of disrespect toward a superior officer and failure to obey a direct command.”

Vernon writes that Robinson believed the charges to be blatantly racially motivated and was determined to draw attention to his case and his account of what happened. These efforts included letters on Robinson’s behalf as well as his own letter to Truman Gibson, assistant to the civil aide for the secretary of war.

“I want know to know just how far I should go with the case, what I mean is should I appeal to the NAACP and the Negro Press?” Robinson wrote, according to images on the National Archives website. “I don’t want any unfavorable publicity for myself or the Army, but I believe in fair play, and I feel I have to let someone in on the case. If I write the NAACP I hope to get statements from all the witnesses because a broad-minded person can see how the people framed me.

“You can see sir that I need your advice. I don’t care what the outcome of the trial is because I know I am being framed and the charges aren’t too bad. I would like to get your advice about the publicity. I have a lot of good publicity out and I feel I have numerous friends on [sic] the press, but I first want to her [sic] from you before I do anything I will be sorry for later on.”

As attention on Robinson’s case grew, he was transferred to the 758th Tank Battalion on July 24, where he was officially arrested and charged, Gates wrote. His trial began on Aug. 2, and his fate was in the hands of nine men, eight of whom were white. After a four-hour trial, Robinson was acquitted of both the charges he was facing.

According to the U.S. Department of Defense, after his acquittal, Robinson was transferred to Camp Breckinridge, Ky. There, he served as a coach for Army athletics until he was honorably discharged in November 1944.