Hope everyone is enjoying Spring Training and the start of the college season as much as I am!
In my last Pipeline Inbox, I answered the question of when our new organization Top 30 Prospects lists would come out, but I keep getting asked about them daily. So I'll reply again, this time with specifics: Eastern Division teams on March 2, Central Division clubs on March 3 and Western Division orgs on March 4.
Now to some questions requiring more detailed answers ...
If Jac Caglianone spent the entire 2025 season in the Minors with same success he enjoyed before his promotion, where would he have ranked on the Top 100 Prospects list?
-- Dwight G., Trenton, Mo.
The No. 6 overall pick in the 2024 Draft, Caglianone slashed .337/.408/.617 in 66 games between Double-A and Triple-A last year. If he spent the whole year in the Minor Leagues and didn't strain his left hamstring in late July, he would have been available for another 74 Triple-A contests. Let's just double his numbers, which means he would have led the Minors in batting, slugging, hits (178), homers (40), total bases (326) and RBIs (144).
I don't think we would have put Caglianone ahead of No. 1 overall prospect Konnor Griffin (Pirates). I do believe we would have ranked him at No. 2 ahead of Kevin McGonigle (Tigers), Jesús Made (Brewers), Leo De Vries (Athletics) and Co.
Of course, Caglianone didn't spent the entire season in the Minors. He also played 62 games with Kansas City, posting a .157/.237/.295 slash line with seven homers and an untenable 39 percent chase rate. His OPS+ was 49, meaning that his adjusted production wasn't quite half as good as an average big leaguer. Adjusting to right field on the fly after arriving in the Majors didn't help his cause, but that doesn't explain why he hit so poorly.
Looking at the list of rookies who performed as badly with as much playing time as Caglianone (232 plate appearances) is alarming. Very few of them enjoyed successful careers in the Majors, and almost all who did were quality defenders at up-the-middle positions. Two causes for hope: Caglianone was one of the youngest strugglers at age 22, and Noelvi Marte got back on track last season after a similarly rough start.
Caglianone always has chased pitches at a high rate -- 41 percent at Florida in 2024, 39 percent in his pro debut, 36 percent in the Minors last year -- though it hadn't stopped him from doing damage. He's so big that he can cover more of the zone and the area around the zone than most players, but big league pitchers made him pay.
UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky is the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 Draft. He's the biggest lock at this point of the calendar since Adley Rutschman in 2019, and the best all-around college shortstop since Troy Tulowitzki in 2005. Cholowsky features four plus tools to go with so-so speed, and he has homered three times in the Bruins' first four games.
Coming out of high school three years ago, Cholowsky would have landed first-round money had he wanted to turn pro. He ranked No. 44 on MLB Pipeline's 2023 Draft Top 250 behind 23 other prepsters. Thirteen of them are Top 100 Prospects, including McGonigle (No. 2), Colt Emerson (No. 9), Max Clark (No. 10), Walker Jenkins (No. 14) and Thomas White (No. 17).
I love McGonigle as a prospect, but I'd take Cholowsky over him because he's a comparable hitter with more power and a superior defender at shortstop. He's not propped up by metal bats and the quality of the Big Ten Conference, which isn't the Southeastern Conference but is still a top-five league.
Ewing (Mets) and Pratt (Brewers) are Top 100 Prospects, but neither can match Cholowsky's impact potential. They'd both be easy first-rounders in the 2026 Draft but wouldn't contend to go No. 1 overall.
Those are the Astros' three best prospects, though you'll have to wait until March 5 to see in which order we rank them. None of them quite cracked the Top 100 Prospects but all are talented enough to make their way onto the list early in the season.
Frey looks like one of the biggest steals in the 2025 Draft, a third-round pick who posted the best batting line (.331/.420/.641) on Louisiana State's national championship team. He's physically imposing at 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds, had the best measured bat speed in the Draft and combines quality swing decisions with high-end exit velocities. He batted .330/.434/.470 in his pro debut and is a strong-armed right fielder with a chance to play center.
The prize of Houston's 2025 international class, Alvarez signed for $2 million after leaving Cuba. A center fielder with a potentially special bat and a high baseball IQ, he slashed .301/.419/.455 with 17 extra-base hits and 11 steals in 47 games while making his pro debut in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League. He also earns raves for his intelligence and maturity.
Neyens offered one of the best combinations of physicality and power in the 2025 Draft, which is why the Astros made the Washington high school product their first-round pick at No. 21 overall. He already has made some mechanical adjustments to help his bat be on time more often, and he projects as a lefty-hitting version of Austin Riley with better defense at third base.
In 2024, the White Sox used their second-round pick on a high school hitter who had played for their Area Code Games team and signed him for $2,997,500: shortstop Caleb Bonemer. Last year, they did the exact same thing with center fielder Jaden Fauske. This time around, they'd love to travel that route once again with Landon Thome, Fauske's former teammate at Nazareth Academy (La Grange Park, Ill.).
The son of Hall of Famer Jim Thome, who's a White Sox special assistant and an assistant coach at Nazareth, Landon is one of the best all-around hitters in the 2026 prep class. His left-handed stroke is geared to do damage, and he makes a lot of hard contact thanks to his pitch recognition and bat-to-ball skills. There's some question about whether he winds up at second base, third base or in left field, but there's no doubt about his offensive upside and high baseball IQ.
Everyone in baseball knows that Chicago covets Thome, who's ranked No. 42 on our Draft Top 100 but might not last until their second-round choice at No. 41. The White Sox will have a huge bonus pool, which will help push players down to their second-round selection.
If Thome isn't available, Mill Valley (Kan.) HS third baseman Beau Peterson is another ACG White Sox alumnus who could fit. If the White Sox look beyond that specific demographic -- and they're not wed to it -- other possibilities could include prep catcher Will Brick and high school outfielders Trevor Condon, Blake Bowen and Brady Harris.
Before spending their last three second-rounders on their former ACG players, Chicago used its two before that on SEC right-handers who had big stuff but were coming off Tommy John surgery: Peyton Pallette and Grant Taylor. Arkansas' Carson Wiggins fits that profile -- and he also pitched for the 2022 ACG White Sox.