After Luzardo's injury, what are the Marlins' options?

May 16th, 2022

MIAMI -- Hours before losing 7-3 on Sunday afternoon to the Brewers at loanDepot park, the Marlins placed left-hander  on the 15-day injured list with a left forearm strain (retroactive to May 12). 

Until this point, Miami had avoided an injury to its rotation, which entered the series finale with the ninth-lowest ERA (3.46) in the Majors. Luzardo said he first started feeling something after his May 5 start, then again following last Tuesday’s outing. But there is positive news: Should Luzardo be out for just the minimum 15 days, as the Marlins anticipate, he would miss just one turn through the rotation thanks to three upcoming off-days (Thursday, May 23 and 26).

Through six starts, Luzardo has posted a 4.03 ERA, a 3.74 FIP and a 1.17 WHIP. His season totals were skewed by that Tuesday start against the D-backs, when he gave up four runs on two hits and four walks with six strikeouts over 2 2/3 innings. According to Statcast, the 24-year-old Luzardo ranks in the 93rd percentile in average fastball velocity (96.9 mph), 92nd percentile in K% (34.5) and 90th percentile in whiff% (34.4). He has certainly looked more like his former Top 100 prospect self rather than just a fifth starter.

"It's definitely frustrating," said Luzardo, who has backed off throwing for now. "I got off to a good start and kind of got on a roll. But at the same time, it's so early in the year, we have so much time, that I feel like I [would] rather get this under control and then be back to 100 percent soon, hopefully. However long it takes, compared to something getting worse and kind of snowballing into something longer."

In the meantime, Sunday marked the continued struggles of No. 4 starter , who was chased in the fifth inning. Working with a 3-1 lead, he surrendered consecutive homers in a four-run frame. Of Major League starters with at least 20 innings, Hernandez entered with the second-highest HR/9 (2.43), behind Reds rookie Hunter Greene (3.81). Two defensive miscues led to three unearned runs on Hernandez’s line.

But Hernandez’s Statcast numbers paint a little brighter picture. Entering Sunday, his average exit velocity against and sweet spot percentage, for example, were better than MLB average. His expected ERA (3.90) was nearly three runs lower than his ERA (6.37).

“It's a matter of just staying positive and not letting those thoughts win the battle,” said Hernandez, who said the key was minimizing mistakes. “I think I'm going to do well at any point. So it's just a matter of keeping working hard.”

How does the rotation line up?
Ace will be pushed up to start in Luzardo’s place in Monday’s series opener against the Nationals on regular rest because of this past Thursday’s off-day. Miami will then turn to a spot starter on Tuesday.

“It depends,” Mattingly said, when asked who would start Tuesday. “No. 1, we haven't talked to the player yet, so it's hard for me to come out here and say who we're going to start. They don't know.”

Who are the active roster options for the spot start?
Right-hander has worked in long relief so far this season, allowing just one run in 16 1/3 innings across eight appearances. The most pitches he has thrown in an outing is 66 on April 16. The 27-year-old rookie opened his MLB career with seven starts in 2021, cruising through the first three (1.06 ERA) before a right knee sprain affected him over his final four and ultimately cut his season short.

Who are the other 40-man options?
and are on the Minor League injured list, while and Edward Cabrera (MLB Pipeline’s No. 32 overall prospect) started for Triple-A Jacksonville on Wednesday and Saturday, respectively. (MLB Pipeline’s No. 56 overall prospect) is slowly progressing in a throwing program. He hasn’t pitched in a game of any capacity since March 2021.

Would the Marlins make a big callup?
Fans have been clamoring for Max Meyer (MLB Pipeline's No. 33 overall prospect). The 23-year-old righty has a 2.97 ERA through seven starts at Triple-A Jacksonville this season, though he surrendered six runs, including three homers, over five innings on Thursday.

Keep in mind the 40-man roster is full, and things will soon get interesting when reliever and utility player , both of whom have been sidelined for undisclosed reasons, need to be placed back on the roster.

With an MLB-worst 3-11 record in May, the Marlins (15-19) have dropped to fourth in the National League East, seven games behind the Mets (23-13). Meyer's highly anticipated debut could be the spark Miami needs.