Philip Stalzer
KNOXVILLE, TN - The Smokies are back in Covenant Health Park this week to take on the Birmingham Barons. This series marks yet another big series amongst North Division rivals as the Smokies and the Barons sit tied for second place in the North at 13-14. A strong series from either team could put them solidly in second place and allow them to shift their focus to catching the first place Lookouts.
While these two teams did meet earlier this season, it came in a brief three-game opening weekend set, meaning many hitters on both sides have yet to see the full mix of arms each pitching staff has to offer.
Birmingham rolls into Knoxville with momentum after taking a big road series from Chattanooga, winning the final three games. The Smokies, meanwhile, return home following a split in Rocket City, having won three of their last four and starting to build some rhythm of their own.
First pitch for the series will be at 7:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday night at Covenant Health Park
After a strong offensive start to the year, the Smokies have become one of the weakest offenses in the Southern League. Since April 20, the Smokies have the worst team batting average (.208) and on base percentage (.301), and the third worst team slugging percentage (.354). Built on what has been exceptional patience at the plate, the Smokies have struggled to even get runners on base.
Once among the league leaders in total walks, the Smokies have slipped to fourth in the league with 134, largely due to their struggles to draw free passes in Rocket City, where they recorded just 15 walks compared to 51 strikeouts over the series.
As the offense has faltered for Knoxville, the pitching staff has stepped up. Since April 20, their pitching staff leads the league in ERA with 4.19 while giving up just four home runs, the best over that span by six. The Smokies pitching staff also has the second most strikeouts over that span with 121.
The bullpen has been the driving force behind the pitching staff’s success. Of the nine Smokies pitchers with ERAs under 5.00, only two have made more than one start, and just one has made more than two.
While Knoxville’s offense has deflated already this season, Birmingham has been one of the best offenses in the Southern League. With the best team batting average in the league at .251 and the second best team OPS in the league at .781, it’s no wonder they have scored the most runs (160) in the Southern League.
Where Birmingham struggles more is on the mound. With a team ERA of 5.44, the third worst in the league, they have played some high-scoring games. They have the second highest batting average against, the third highest WHIP, and the fewest strikeouts in the league by nine despite throwing the second most innings.
The Smokies and the Barons seem to be having the same success record wise, but for opposite reasons. Here are some of the names to pay attention to this week for each squad.
Players to Watch
Ariel Armas has been the Smokies’ hottest bat over the last 10 games. Over that span, Armas has hit .303 with a .410 on base percentage. While he hasn’t been slugging the ball, he has been a consistent baserunner everyday for the Smokies who have struggled with that as of late. Armas has also driven in five RBIs while only striking out four times over that span. The 23-year-old is thriving in his first chance at the Double-A level.
On the mound, Dawson Netz was Knoxville’s go-to arm out of the bullpen early this season, but may be transitioning into a starter role due to his success. Over 14.1 innings across six appearances (five out of the bullpen), Netz has held opposing hitters to a .106 average, striking out 23 while walking just four and allowing only one run for a 0.63 ERA. The 25-year-old spent most of last season in South Bend before finishing the year in Knoxville, and he’s picked up right where he left off with a dominant start to this season.
Hayden Cantrelle has been recalled from Triple-A after a slow start to the year. Cantrelle batted just .205 with a .279 on base percentage in Iowa. While his .462 slugging percentage is impressive, the consistency is likely not enough for a player that has a career .376 on base percentage in the minors.
Birmingham’s hottest bat over their last 10 games is definitely Adam Fogel. Fogel is slashing .343/.425/.800 over that span for a team best 1.225 OPS. Although he has struck out 10 times in those 10 games, Fogel has bashed four home runs and driven in a team best 13 runs. At 27 years old, Fogel may be coming into his own.
The Barons may be struggling on the mound, but Connor McCullough has been dominant as a starter for them all season. With a 2.25 ERA over 20 innings, McCullough has been extremely reliable for the Barons. McCullough had one start in late April where he gave up three runs in three innings, but has been lights out other than that. The one weakness of McCullough is that he has yet to throw more than four innings in a start yet this season, but that is likely due to him continuing to work back from yet another injury.
Probable Pitching Matchups
5/5 Tuesday, 7:00 PM ET - Chips & Salsa Giveaway/Cinco De Mayo Night
RHP Yenrri Rojas vs. RHP Dylan Cumming
5/6 Wednesday, 7:00 PM ET - All-You-Can-Eat Wednesday
RHP Grant Kipp vs. LHP Jake Palisch
5/7 Thursday, 7:00 PM ET - Knox Vegas/Thirsty Thursday/College Night
RHP Dawson Netz vs. LHP Lucas Gordon
5/8 Friday, 7:00 PM ET - Camo Replica Jerseys/Chick-fil-A Friday
TBD vs. LHP Lucas Gordon
5/9 Saturday, 7:00 PM ET - Big League Chew T-Shirt Giveaway
RHP Tyler Schlaffer vs. RHP Connor McCullough
5/10 Sunday, 2:00 PM ET - Clear Purse Giveaway
RHP Nick Dean vs. RHP Dylan Cumming
Tied for second place, this series could be vital to either team’s pursuit of a first half division win in the North. The winner of this series could separate themselves from the pack and make a run at the Lookouts.
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