Matt Scalzo
KNOXVILLE, TN – The first half of the two-week road trip did not end as well as it started for Knoxville, dropping the final four games in the series at Pensacola. Now, an opportunity ahead pits the Smokies against a struggling Shuckers side in the Magnolia State between the two First-Half Champions in the Southern League.
As Knoxville charters along the Gulf of America to Biloxi, it is enduring a four-game losing streak after taking the opener in a weather-riddled series against the Blue Wahoos. The Smokies bats came out of the gates sizzling for 16 runs in game one, including nine in the first inning before Mother Nature pushed the end of that contest to Thursday. The rest of the week, Knoxville had no answer, batting .176 and driving in nine runs, scoring 10 overall in the last four, and was a measly 3-for-25 (.120 AVG) with RISP.
This impending week’s matchup will be the second time the Smokies and the Shuckers see one another. They last faced off from July 7th to 12th, battling to a split; Knoxville won three of the opening four, before Biloxi spoiled by taking the final two by a 3-1 edge in both contests. Each side was 11-7 heading into the All-Star Break, and a lot has changed since that point.
While the Smokies stumbled for a moment, closing July with a 4-9 mark in their final 13 games, they lost 15 or 24 in July. Despite all this, they sit just half a game back of Rocket City for the top spot in the Southern League North. The Shuckers, meanwhile, have plummeted to last place in the South during a disastrous skid this month and dropped five of six this past week against Rocket City, which has jumped Knoxville to the top spot in the North. Biloxi had the worst record in all of Double-A in August with a 2-18 mark, headlined by a 13-game losing streak from August 5th to 19th, the longest in Double-A this season.
With three weeks left in the regular season, this series carries little weight in the standings, as the Smokies and the Shuckers won the First-Half crown in their respective divisions, clinching a spot in the postseason. Instead, the series matters more for building momentum toward the finish line. Knoxville finishes the year with two of the three series on the road, while Biloxi has 12-straight at home with Birmingham visiting next week.
A major storyline for this week is the amount of quality prospects on the field.
The Smokies have four of the Cubs' top 30 prospects, and leading the way is Kane Kepley. The 22-year-old is currently the Cubs’ No. 5-ranked prospect, and he has made himself right at home in the Volunteer State since arriving on August 4th. In his first nine games with the Smokies, Kepley is slashing .283/.484/.522, good for an OPS of 1.006, collecting 13 hits, three doubles, a triple, two home runs and driving in 11 RBI, with double the amount of walks as strikeouts.
Other numbers to note for the former North Carolina Tar Heel are his 10-game on-base streak, the longest active streak by a Smokie. Additionally, Kepley has been potent with runners in scoring position, collecting a slash line of .600/.733/1.500 in 15 plate appearances. Both of his home runs and all of his RBI have come with RISP.
While he is only 14 games into his Double-A career, Kepley is on pace to out-produce his stats from the 93 games he spent with High-A South Bend.
Drew Bowser has provided a spark in the bottom third of the order for Knoxville, with each batting above .350 in August. Bowser has made the most of his opportunities; in 39 at-bats, he is batting .359 with a trio of home runs and 10 RBI, an OPS of 1.046, and is leading Knoxville.
As for Biloxi, it boasts the top three, six of the top-eight, and nine overall of the Brewers' top-30 prospects, highlighted by the top prospect in all of baseball, SS Jesus Made. Other notables are SS Luis Pena (No. 2), OF Josh Adamczewski (No. 3), 3B Andrew Fischer (No. 5), OF Braylon Payne (No. 6), RHP Bishop Letson (No. 8), C Marco Dinges (No. 14), LHP J.D. Thompson (No. 18), and RHP Jaron DeBerry (No. 27). Collectively, the Shuckers have nearly a third of the Brewers top prospects.
Despite the quality on the field, the Shuckers pitching staff has been the worst in Double-A this month. In August, Biloxi is 2-18, the fewest wins in Double-A, and has the highest ERA in Double-A at 7.18. Opposing hitters have teed off against the Shuckers to the tune of a .303 BAA, allowing double-digit runs in six of the 20 games during August, including a season-worst 20 runs allowed against Montgomery on August 2nd.
First pitch for the series is set for 7:35 p.m. ET on Tuesday night.
Players to Watch
Another player who has given Knoxville a much-needed burst in the bottom of the order is Alex Madera. The former Tar Heel has enjoyed the best offensive month in his pro career. The 25-year-old leads the Smokies in August with a .383 batting average, the highest in the Southern League among hitters with at least 35 at-bats. While he only appeared in three games this past week, Madera took full advantage, going 5-for-11 at the dish, with a three-hit day in the series finale on Sunday, tying his single-game high in hits. Overall, Madera holds a .383/.434/.447 slash line in August with four runs batted in.
The talk of the town was baseball’s top prospect, Jesus Made, when these sides squared off in July, but this week recent Double-A call-up and No. 21 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Luis Pena, may hold that honor. The 19-year-old has taken a step forward in his second season, slashing .298/.384/.420 with a pair of home runs, 23 RBI and 27 stolen bases in High-A before getting the move to Biloxi on August 18th. In his first week for the Shuckers at Rocket City, Pena was 7-for-24 (.292) with a home run and three runs driven in, recording at least one hit in all six games.
Probable Pitching Matchup
8/25 Tuesday, 7:35 p.m. ET
RHP Kevin Valdez (1-1, 3.91 ERA) vs. RHP Peyton Niksch (0-0, 8.78 ERA)
8/26 Wednesday, 7:35 p.m. ET
RHP Brody McCullough (1-3, 3.29 ERA) vs. RHP Manuel Rodriguez (11-4, 4.82 ERA)
8/27 Thursday, 7:35 p.m. ET
RHP Jake Knapp (0-1, 4.44 ERA) vs. RHP Bishop Letson (5-6, 5.38 ERA)
8/28 Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET
RHP Dawson Netz (6-4, 3.13 ERA) vs. RHP Jaron DeBerry (7-8, 4.41 ERA)
8/29 Saturday, 7:05 p.m. ET
RHP Brooks Caple (4-4, 3.48 ERA) vs. LHP J.D. Thompson (0-3, 5.25 ERA)
8/30 Sunday, 6:05 p.m. ET
RHP Connor Schultz (5-4, 4.88 ERA) vs. TBD
Wrap Up
The Smokies head into the penultimate road series and the back half of a long road trip trying to end it better than it started. Especially for an offense that has been sluggish in the second half, Biloxi’s struggles on the mound present a golden opportunity for Knoxville to build a head of steam moving into the final home series next week against the first-place Rocket City Trash Pandas.
Lance Rymel and company are hoping one element remains constant: the pitching. The Smokies staff has been one of the best in August, holding the eighth-lowest mark in Double-A with a 3.70 ERA, limiting opponents to a .217 average, second-best in the Double-A ranks. Knoxville’s starters during August hold a 3.22 ERA, third-lowest, and a .214 BAA, second-lowest in Double-A. As they look to take advantage against Biloxi’s team average of .212 this month, second-lowest at the Double-A level.
Tune in all week against the Southern League’s two First-Half Champions at https://www.milb.com/knoxville/fans/audio-listen-live and buy tickets to upcoming Smokies’ regular season and playoff games at https://www.milb.com/knoxville/tickets/single-game-tickets