They say the third time’s a charm. The Lansing Lugnuts (7-16, 36-51) will put that theory to the test this week as they matchup with the Great Lakes Loons (16-7, 52-35) for the third time this season in a six-game series beginning on Tuesday night at 7:05 p.m. at JacksonⓇ Field™.
The Loons have had their way with the Lugnuts this season. In the first matchup back in the beginning of June, Great Lakes defended Dow Diamond, winning four of the six games in the series. Later in the month, at the beginning of the second half, Lansing hosted the Loons and surrendered five of six games.
After barely losing the Midwest League East first half to the Dayton Dragons, the Loons are off to a hot 16-7 second-half start. The Lugnuts are on the exact opposite end of that spectrum, sitting at 7-16 since the reset of records, in last place in the division and nine games behind the Loons for first.
Meet the Opponent
Pitching continues to be a strength of the Loons. Great Lakes enters the series with the lowest ERA (4.29), batting average against (2.13) and number of hits allowed (164) among teams in the Midwest League in the second half. The team is also ranked second in strikeouts (250), third in WHIP (1.38) and fourth in number of runs allowed to its opponents (115) in that time.
The starters are led in the second half statistically by Tyler Gough and Zach Root. Gough’s first High-A start was against the Lugnuts back on June 28; Gough pitched five shutout, one-hit innings, allowed two walks and collected seven strikeouts in the extra-inning loss. In the three starts he has made since joining the Loons on June 23, Gough has a 0.00 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and a .073 batting average against over 13 innings.
Root has been a mainstay in the Great Lakes rotation for the whole season. In the second half specifically, Root has a 1.69 ERA (tied for 2nd in the MWL among qualified pitchers), a 1.03 WHIP (tied for 5th) and a .197 BAA (4th) in four starts. Against the Lugnuts on June 23, Root threw 4 ⅓ innings, allowing five hits and one run with one walk and four strikeouts.
However, as scary as this Loons team is throwing the ball, they’re a force to be reckoned with at the plate as well. In the second half, Great Lakes is ranked fourth in the Midwest League in batting average (.267), third in OPS (.838), runs scored (152) and hits (209) while being ranked second in RBIs (146), strikeouts (191) and run differential (+37).
The Loons have a total of six players that are hitting above .280 in the second half. The team is led by Eduardo Quintero, who is hitting .318 with 21 hits, four doubles, three triples and five home runs over 20 games in the second half. Among qualified hitters, Quintero is ranked first in the Midwest League in OPS (1.186), first in SLG (.697), third in OBP (.489), tied for second in extra base hits (12), tied for first in triples (3), tied for third in walks (18) and runs scored (20), fifth in total bases (46) and tied for sixth in RBIs (19).
Emil Morales is another name to watch. In 20 games, Morales is hitting .297 in the second half with a 1.076 OPS (3rd in MWL among qualified hitters), 22 hits, 14 runs scored, 25 RBIs (1st), 14 extra base hits (1st), seven doubles (tied for 5th), seven home runs (1st) and 50 total bases (3rd).
What to Watch for
The pitching in this series is intriguing. Great Lakes brings plenty of firepower to the table in that regard, but don’t forget about the Lugnuts.
Zane Taylor leads qualified pitchers in the Midwest League this season in ERA (3.22), is second in WHIP (1.21) and third in batting average against (.234) with the fourth-most innings pitched (81.0). In his start last weekend against Fort Wayne, Taylor pitched five scoreless, one-hit innings with five strikeouts and no walks.
Samuel Dutton ranks fourth in the league this season among qualified pitchers in ERA (4.71), ninth in WHIP (1.54) and eighth in BAA (.283) in the fifth-most innings pitched (80.1). Last time he pitched against the Loons, Dutton threw seven quality innings, allowing five hits, two walks and one run with two strikeouts.
Steven Echavarria enters the series after posting a 2.45 ERA in his last three games, allowing just four runs and collecting 17 strikeouts in 14.2 innings of action. Among qualified pitchers, Echavarria has the eighth-best ERA in the league this season (5.50), the fifth-best WHIP (1.39) and the fourth-best BAA (.235) in the sixth-most innings pitched (75.1).
The relief corp appears to be finding its way as well. In the first half of the season, the group was ranked ninth in ERA (6.09), 10th in WHIP (1.81), 12th in BAA (.288), seventh in hits allowed (277) and fifth in runs allowed (196). In the second half, the bullpen is ranked second in ERA (4.35), second in WHIP (1.45), sixth in BAA (.243), tied for fourth in hits allowed (91) and first in the league in runs allowed (57).
JacksonⓇ Field™could be in for a treat of pitching performances this week.
Powell’s Predictions
I predict this series is going to be a tough one for Lansing. Statistically, the Loons have been better on both sides of the ball during the second half, and they haven’t had much trouble against the Lugnuts this season.
While I think Lansing’s pitching would have enough juice to make it somewhat competitive, the offense just isn’t clicking. In the second half, the Lugnuts are hitting .220 (12th) with an OPS of .632 (12th). They’ve scored the fewest runs in the league in that time period (94), have the lowest number of RBIs (85) and are 11th in hits (172).
Lansing’s best hitter right now is Myles Naylor, who is hitting .286 in the second half, but no one else on the roster is hitting over .280. Ali Camarillo (.267 in 2nd half) and Jared Sprague-Lott (.253 in 2nd half) showed flashes of success against Fort Wayne last weekend, but this roster needs players to step up and hit well consistently, something that is just not happening right now.
With as good as this Great Lakes pitching staff has been this season, I don’t foresee enough offensive output from the Lugnuts to win or tie the series. At best, I predict a 4-2 series win for the Loons.