After a four-day All-Star Break, the Lansing Lugnuts (35-50, 6-15) jump back into action on Friday, beginning a three-game series at JacksonⓇ Field™ against the Fort Wayne Tincaps (36-51, 9-12).
The Nuts are back home for the first time in nearly three weeks. After dropping five-of-six games against the Great Lakes Loons in Lansing between June 23-28, the Lugnuts spent two weeks in Ohio. Lansing split a six-game series against the first-half champion Dayton Dragons before dropping four-of-six against the first-half runner-up Lake County Captains.
The Lugnuts and Tincaps clash for the second time this campaign after Lansing got the better of Fort Wayne at the beginning of the season, taking a series at Parkview Field in Indiana with four victories. The Lugnuts will host the Tincaps a third time to close out the season in the first week of September.
An Even Matchup
The Tincaps present the Lugnuts with a very even matchup on paper; both teams are ranked at or near the bottom of the Midwest League in terms of hitting and pitching statistics.
On offense, the Tincaps have a league-worst -174 run differential and have allowed 10 or more runs 19 times. The Lugnuts are responsible for two of those. Lansing grabbed a 15-1 win behind a Steven Echavarria gem on April 8 and a 12-4 victory on April 11 in which the Lugnuts collected 16 hits.
Fort Wayne ranks last in several Midwest League categories, including batting average (.233), hits (655), runs (384), and RBIs (353) while placing 11th in OPS (.712) and 10th in walks drawn (358).
While slightly better, the Lugnuts offense hasn’t found a lot of success either, tied for eighth in AVG (.244), ranked last in OPS (.709) and 10th in season run differential (-58).
Kasen Wells leads the Fort Wayne bats, hitting .287/.384/.341 with 75 hits, 45 runs scored and 22 RBIs with a team-leading 17 stolen bases in 79 games this season.
Alex McCoy is also a name to watch. McCoy, San Diego Padres No. 19 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, is hitting .267 with 79 hits (tied for fifth in the Midwest League), 43 runs scored, 44 RBIs and 12 home runs in 78 games. McCoy is tied for first in the league in doubles (23), tied for second in extra-base hits (36) and tied for fifth in total bases (140).
On the mound, the teams are ranked closely as well. The Lugnuts are sixth in the league in ERA (5.40), eighth in WHIP (1.58) and 12th in opponent batting average (.277). Comparatively, the Tincaps are 10th in ERA (5.90), 12th in WHIP (1.66) and eighth in opponent batting average (.258).
Fort Wayne’s starting pitchers are not confirmed for the weekend yet, but the group is led by No. 4 prospect Kash Mayfield (3.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .208 AVG/A, 13 games) and No. 30 prospect Carson Montgomery (4.65 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .220 AVG/A, 14 games).
Clay Edmondson spearheads the relief effort with a 1.67 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .134 AVG/A and a league-leading 11 saves in 23 games. Ryan Och follows with a 1.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and a .167 AVG/A in 10 games.
Things to Note
As can be expected, both team’s rosters look quite a bit different than they did at the beginning of the season. The Tincaps, however, have retained the three players that did the most damage against Lansing earlier in the year; McCoy (.350/.350/.750), Wells (.267/.500/.267) and Kavares Tears (.263/.417/.526).
It’s not the same story with the Lugnuts. Back in April, Davis Diaz led the way, slashing .611/.696/.833 in 23 plate appearances over five games, going 11-for-18 at the plate with four doubles, four RBIs, nine runs scored and four walks, enough to earn the title of Midwest Player of the Week.
Justin Riemer followed with a .357/.524/.357 performance, going 5-for-14 with four RBIs, five runs scored, six walks and one stolen base in five games. Casey Yamauchi hit .350/.381/.700 in four games, going 7-for-20 with eight RBIs, five runs scored, one double, one walk, a stolen base and two home runs.
Bobby Boser rounded out the club of Lugnuts hitting over .300 in the series, finishing .348/.500/.478 in six games, going 8-for-23 at the plate with three doubles, four RBIs, seven runs scored and five walks.
The potential problem for Lansing is that none of those players are still with the team; all of them were promoted and are playing in Double-A Midland. To find success this weekend, the Lugnuts need to look elsewhere in its roster, and Myles Naylor is the name to watch.
Naylor had a quiet first half of the season, joining the team in the middle of May and hitting .225/.333/.288 with two doubles, one home run, 11 RBIs, 13 runs scored and 12 walks in 80 at-bats. Naylor has since exploded in the second half, slashing .320/.409/.560 with five doubles, two triples, three home runs (including a grand slam), 12 RBIs, 14 runs scored, 11 walks and four stolen bases in 75 at-bats.
Powell’s Predictions
It’s no secret that the Lugnuts have had a tough several weeks. Since the 23-15 loss to the Cedar Rapids Kernels on June 13, Lansing has picked up just six wins and set the franchise record for most losses in a row with an 11-loss skid.
The second half schedule hasn’t been easy. Great Lakes has been near the top of the league all season, Dayton won the first half in the Midwest League East and Lake County was the runner-up and has looked scary. And unfortunately, the road is just as hard going forward. But the Lugnuts have shown fight, and I think they will continue to battle for the rest of the season.
This series feels important for Lansing, and I like this matchup against the Tincaps. It presents Lansing with a small series in which I believe it is possible to collect the sweep. Fort Wayne is a beatable squad, and I think sweeping the mini-series would go a long way for giving the team some confidence and traction.
In terms of specifics, I expect Naylor to continue performing well and to lead the squad in hitting this weekend. And watch for pitcher Steven Echavarria if he gets a start. Echavarria has been on a tear recently; in his last three games, the starter has posted a 2.45 ERA, allowed just four runs and collected 17 strikeouts in 14.2 innings of action.