One more regular-season game. One win away.
After months of baseball and a final week spent watching scoreboards across the International League, your Rochester Red Wings enter today with their postseason future in their own hands.
Beat Buffalo, and the Wings win the second-half title.
Rochester closes the regular season today at Sahlen Field, with first pitch scheduled for 12:05 p.m. ET. The Wings enter at 44–30 in the second half, just ahead of Syracuse at 43–30. They are the only two teams still competing for the league’s remaining playoff berth.
Saturday’s 7–3 victory over Buffalo put Rochester in this position. Cayden Wallace drove in three runs as the Wings improved to 89–58 overall and moved within one victory of extending their season. After Friday’s loss, Rochester delivered the response it needed at exactly the right time.
Now comes the final step.
There is no next regular-season series to make up ground. No extra week to straighten things out. Today is the last game on the schedule, and Rochester has a chance to make sure it is not the last game of its season.
Syracuse, however, refused to let the race end Saturday.
The Mets were two outs from elimination when D’Andre Smith hit a two-run walk-off homer to beat Lehigh Valley, 5–4. Instead of watching Rochester celebrate, Syracuse stayed alive and forced the second-half race into its final afternoon. The Mets host the IronPigs today at 1:05 p.m. ET, one hour after Rochester’s scheduled first pitch.
The scenarios are straightforward:
- Rochester wins: The Red Wings clinch the second-half title, regardless of Syracuse’s result.
- Syracuse loses: Rochester clinches, regardless of its result in Buffalo.
- Rochester loses, and Syracuse wins: The Mets take the second-half title.
Winning percentage explains that final scenario. A Rochester loss would leave the Wings at 44–31 (.587). A Syracuse victory would put the Mets at 44–30 (.595), enough to move ahead despite both clubs finishing with 44 wins.
The race has narrowed considerably since our last update.
Indianapolis is out**.** The Indians lost 2–1 at Gwinnett on Saturday, falling to 43–31 and officially ending their postseason hopes. Even a win today combined with a Rochester loss would only pull Indianapolis even with the Wings at 44–31, and Rochester holds the tiebreaker. A team that shared the lead earlier this week now heads into its finale knowing its season ends today.
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Worcester are also eliminated**.** Rochester’s Saturday victory closed the door on both clubs. The RailRiders won their own game, 6–5 over Jacksonville, but even another victory today would leave them at 42–31 (.575), below Rochester’s lowest possible finish. Worcester fell 4–3 to Durham and enters Sunday at 40–32. Neither can catch the Wings. St. Paul, another team with a mathematical chance earlier in the week, is out as well.
That leaves Rochester and Syracuse fighting to join Memphis, which already secured its postseason place by winning the first half. The Redbirds will host the best-of-three International League Championship Series beginning Tuesday, September 22, at AutoZone Park.
For Rochester, that trip is within reach. But first comes Buffalo.
The Wings have spent this week answering losses with wins and keeping themselves in position. Saturday’s performance earned them the opportunity every contender wants on the final day: win your game, and you are in.
One more good start. One more timely hit. One more afternoon of finishing the job.
The regular season ends today.
Let’s make sure our season doesn’t.