Inbox: Mize vs. Wright,  Franco vs. Adell

March 21st, 2019

This is my last Pipeline Inbox before Opening Day, so it's time to get my 2019 predictions on the record ...

AL Division Winners: Red Sox, Indians, Astros

AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Twins

NL Division Winners: Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers

NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Mets

AL Championship Series: Astros over Red Sox

NL Championship Series: Nationals over Dodgers

World Series: Astros over Nationals

Casey Mize and Kyle Wright -- who you got?
-- Mark D., Atlanta

MLB Network's Mark DeRosa asked me this question when we were getting ready to tape some Phillies content for the "30 Clubs in 30 Days" series. These are the two most advanced pitchers from the last two Drafts, with Mize going No. 1 overall to the Tigers last June and Wright becoming the first member of the 2017 class to reach the big leagues, 15 months after the Braves selected him fifth overall.

Both Mize and Wright have four pitches that can grade as at least plus at their best, but I give Mize the edge for two reasons. His splitter is the best weapon between them, an almost unhittable offering that he controls better than almost anyone who has even thrown the pitch. Additionally, his control and command might be a full grade better than Wright's.

I love these types of questions -- so much so that we're going to dedicate this entire Inbox to them.

Rays shortstop vs. Angels outfielder:

It's not out of the question that these guys could rank 1-2 on next year's Top 100 Prospects list. Adell has some of the best all-around tools in the Minors and is a legitimate 30-30 threat, but I'll side with Franco because his bat is that special. I'm still trying to make my "Vladimir Guerrero III" nickname stick to Franco.

Oregon State catcher and the favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2019 Draft vs. Giants catcher and the No. 2 pick last year:

They have similar arms; Bart has more power while Rutschman is a better hitter and receiver. I'll go with Rutschman, who also has the added bonus of being a switch-hitter.

Nationals shortstop who played in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game and reached high Class A last year at age 18 vs. Phillies shortstop who won the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League batting title (.369) in his pro debut at age 17:

Philadelphia's Garcia is a better defender and has a stronger arm, while Washington's Garcia has a better bat and more power potential. He also has a decent chance to stay at shortstop and a longer track record, so I'll take the Nationals version.

Padres right-hander who hasn't pitched in a game since August 2016 vs. Yankees right-hander with otherworldly stuff but also a 6.25 ERA and 11.5 walks per nine innings in Rookie ball last year:

Before he had Tommy John surgery, Espinoza had a mid-90s fastball with late life, an advanced changeup and a potential plus curveball. He's still just 21 and expected to return to the mound in high Class A in April. The 19-year-old Medina has a heater that reaches 102 mph with natural cutting action, a high-spin curve that's a plus-plus pitch at its best and a low-90s changeup with splitter action.

While Medina has a crazy ceiling, Espinoza also has a high ceiling and a much higher floor. I'll bank on Espinoza's reconstructed elbow holding up and choose him.

Cubs outfielder taken in the supplemental second round (77th overall) last June vs. Cubs outfielder taken in the second round (62nd overall) last June:

This is somewhat a floor vs. ceiling argument. Roederer draws Andrew Bentinendi comparisons and is a safer bet to hit, while Davis is stronger and faster but more raw at the plate. I'll bet on the bat and opt for Roederer, who could develop into a .300 hitter with 25-homer power.