These storylines will drive free agency in MLB

What to watch in addition to the Harper, Machado sweepstakes

November 3rd, 2018

Free agency opens today, and, unlike the bum rush we see in some other sports, baseball's signing season has a plodding pace that, in recent years, has extended to and even through Spring Training. That means there is a lot of time for dynamics to evolve and team plans to change course.
For now, here are the seven biggest free-agent storylines in MLB.
Who will sign Manny Machado and (and for how much)?
Injuries, regression and tragedy took a lot of the shine off what was supposed to be a historic free-agent class, but two 26-year-old talents of this caliber still have the potential to break records.
The biggest contract in the history of North American professional sports is the 10-year, $325 million extension signed with the Marlins three years before they traded him to the Yankees. The highest free-agent contract in MLB history is Alex Rodriguez's 10-year deal (either the $252 million contract he signed with the Rangers or the $275 million deal he signed with the Yankees after opting out, depending on whether you view the latter case as a legitimate "free agency").
A 10-year, $300 million deal for both Harper and Machado seems a legitimate base of thought (and of course, with opt-outs all the rage these days, it's a good bet they'll both build that option into whatever deal they sign). From there, it's just a matter of where market dynamics push the price tag from there.
Machado's postseason antics aren't expected to affect his final price all that much (he's helped by the fact that he's not tied to Draft pick compensation after getting traded), but it could lessen the enthusiasm of certain squads. Harper doesn't play as valued a defensive position, but he's one of the sport's most marketable stars. The market for both players is inherently limited to the select few clubs that can even entertain the idea of carrying a player making $30 million a year or more, but either (or both) could break a record this winter.

Will we see another slow market?
Harper and Machado will do well. As for everybody else, it will be fascinating to see how the dynamics of the past year's market malaise apply to the present.
We can debate the merits and value of clubhouse chemistry and veteran input, but the bottom line is that teams don't pay for those premiums the way they once did. They are often open to giving opportunities to pre-arbitration-eligible kids over wily vets when the cold, hard data projects similar production from each. And they've seen plenty of examples of a ruthlessly patient approach driving down price tags, with even big names like , J.D. Martinez and signing well after the New Year in '18. Furthermore, when players like , Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland and were forced to settle for one-year deals in an especially selective market last offseason, it further complicated this year's pool.
Having said all of that, relievers moved relatively quickly last year, and 's deal with the Nationals is an early indication that they'll do so again (that market is loaded with the likes of , Zach Britton, , , , Joe Kelly and others). It's also possible that more players will jump at early offers rather than waiting for the golden ticket that never comes (, for instance, wasted no time re-signing with the D-backs).

Will anyone accept the qualifying offer?
Coming into this Hot Stove season, only 5 percent of players extended the offer since the process was initiated in 2012 have accepted it.
Again, though, the evolving dynamics of free agency make a one-year, $17.9 million offer look awfully enticing for certain players. That's why only seven got the offer. For injury-prone players like A.J. Pollock or , the one-year premium might be worth forgoing multiyear possibilities on the open market, especially given the way the attached Draft pick compensation could impact the offers they receive. We'll see.

Will bullpenning and openers have any impact on the starter market?
's breakout year puts him in a sterling spot in the starting pitching market, perhaps ahead of fellow lefty (and former Cy Young winner) . And right-hander (who, unlike those two, is not tied to Draft pick compensation) seemingly did himself plenty of favors with his epic October.
But this is not a starting market that bowls you over, and one reason the reimagination of starting and relief roles makes sense for clubs in the present tense (at least, until the market catches up to reality) is that middle relievers are generally less expensive than even back-end starters. What we saw from the Brewers' budget pitching staff in their run to the National League Championship Series is a template others are sure to try replicate. That could impact offers.

How much will the trade market impact the free-agent market?
The question is most meaningful right now in the aforementioned starting pitching market, because the availability of a controllable ace would affect the number of teams engaged with Keuchel, Corbin and others.
We know the D-backs are trying to pare down payroll, which could lead to a Zack Greinke deal -- though his age (35) and contract ($104.5 million through 2021) obviously complicate matters. With their budget stretched thin, the Indians will at least listen to offers on and , among others. There are other starters who, if made available, could really shake up the market -- the Giants' and the Mariners' , for instance -- but the trade market is only beginning to take shape.
Will the Yankees be major players again?
When the Yankees essentially removed themselves from the top end of free agency last offseason, it affected the market in a dramatic way, so it only stands to reason that if they re-engage, the effects will be equally disruptive.
Getting under the luxury tax threshold was an organizational goal that didn't stop the Yankees from obtaining Stanton and winning 100 games. But now that the Yanks have reset their Competitive Balance Tax penalty, they could be in play for Machado, who is a natural fit after Didi Gregorius' Tommy John surgery, and they could go after top-of-the-market starting help, too.
On the other hand, having only recently seen some bloated contracts come off the books and having gotten less-than-expected impact from Stanton in his first year in pinstripes, the Yanks know too well the dangers of bidding boldly.
Which other teams will drive the market?
Only one man's best guess, but the Phillies are a club on the cusp with money to burn, the Dodgers could be motivated to go past the luxury tax threshold again after consecutive World Series defeats, the Braves might be ready to significantly supplement their young core after a surprise NL East title, the Cardinals are trying to avenge three straight October absences and have the resources to spend big, and the Astros have a few big names in free agency (Keuchel, and Charlie Morton) and will be ready to reload.
There are surprise spenders every year (the Reds, as an example, are signaling an intent to dole out dollars on pitching), but the above clubs are the ones probably most likely to be at the forefront of this free agency.