How Harper, Machado signings would affect races

February 4th, 2019

Where will and land? In the final week before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, the baseball world still waits for a resolution to this offseason's biggest question.
The answer figures to have far-reaching implications for the organizations that add these two stars. But with a new season approaching rapidly, let's focus on 2019 and see how Harper and Machado might affect their new teams and the playoff races.
For guidance here we turn to the Steamer projections available at FanGraphs, which have Machado (5.1 wins above replacement) and Harper (4.9) both ranking among the game's top dozen position players. Of course, both are capable of more, with Machado having reached as high as 6.6 WAR in a season, and Harper 9.3.
By using Steamer to compare that duo with the players they might displace, and factoring in the projected standings, we can offer a rough idea of how these long-awaited signings could alter the outlook. (To simplify things, the Steamer WAR projections cited below all are based on the player in question receiving 600 plate appearances -- roughly a full season's worth).
We will start with breakdowns of the four teams that have been clearly and repeatedly tied to Harper and Machado this offseason. But since MLB Network insider Jon Heyman reported Monday that "at least" eight teams remain in on Harper, we also will take a quick look at some other possible landing spots.
Nationals
Current projection: 92-70 (First in National League East)
How they would fit: Machado hasn't been tied to Washington, which has at shortstop and at third. Harper's return to right field at Nationals Park would knock either veteran (2.4 WAR) or talented rookie (2.2) of the starting lineup.
Effect: The Nationals are fairly well insulated against Harper's pending departure but still could stand to jump at least a couple of games if he stays in D.C. That would pad their projected seven-game edge over the Mets and perhaps nudge them over the Dodgers (93 wins) for the No. 1 spot in the NL.
Playoff impact: None, based on the projections, but last year was a stark reminder not to take anything for granted. And even if the Nats cruise into October, they still have to get over the hump and win a postseason series.

Padres
Current projection: 76-86 (Tied for fourth in NL West)
How they would fit: San Diego could put Machado at shortstop until the arrival of No. 2 overall prospect , or move him straight to third base. At least initially, he would be supplanting someone like (1.3 WAR). Harper would be entering a crowded outfield situation, perhaps forcing a trade. The Padres would have just one corner outfield spot left for (2.0), (1.7) and (1.0).
Effect: A four-win bump would not be unreasonable, and it would push the Padres past the Giants (76 wins) and D-backs (79) in the projections, with the Rockies (82) not far away. The Mets (85) and Cardinals (86) currently sit in NL Wild Card position, but the Padres could move within range if Harper or Machado performed closer to his potential -- and some of San Diego's existing young talented matured quickly.
Playoff impact: Minor, at least for 2019. Acquiring Machado or Harper would put San Diego on the outskirts of the Wild Card conversation, but it would take an unusual confluence of events for them to challenge the Dodgers this season. However, the impact could be huge for 2020 and beyond as the Padres' plethora of prospects start to arrive.

Phillies
Current projection: 79-83 (Fourth in NL East)
How they would fit: With the Phillies already having acquired shortstop and outfielder this offseason, Machado would supplant (2.3 WAR) at third, and Harper would move into right field for one of a few players, such as (0.4 WAR).
Effect: Based on these numbers, the Phillies have more room for growth with Harper, potentially adding four or five wins as a baseline. That would vault their projected standing over the third-place Braves (82 wins) and within striking distance of the Mets (85) for the second NL Wild Card spot.
Playoff impact: Potentially huge. The Phillies are in the range where a big acquisition would lift them from the periphery to full-fledged contender. While adding both players is perhaps a far-fetched scenario, it could make them a Wild Card favorite. Given the side benefit of taking Harper away from a division foe, Philly could find itself in the thick of the NL East race as well.

White Sox
Current projection: 70-92 (Tied for third in American League Central)
How they would fit: The White Sox have flexibility to add either player. Machado could push third baseman (1.5 WAR) or shortstop (1.3) to another position, or to the bench. Harper would take over a corner outfield spot from someone projected for under 1 WAR, such as , or . (No. 3 overall prospect , projected for 3.6 WAR in a full season, also could enter the picture before long).
Effect: One of those players would be projected to add something like four wins, or enough to at least separate the Sox from the Tigers (69 wins) and Royals (70) at the bottom of the division.
Playoff impact: Minor, at least for 2019. Even with Harper or Machado, a lot would have to go right for Chicago to challenge for a postseason berth in the top-heavy AL. Such a move would be geared more toward '20 and beyond, as Jimenez and other well regarded young players emerge.

THE FIELD
Here are eight more potential "mystery teams" to consider:
Angels: Already projected to be right in the mix for the second AL Wild Card spot with the Rays and Twins, the Halos could add three potentially crucial wins. Options include replacing right fielder (1.9 WAR) with Harper, or putting Machado at third and sliding to second for (1.9).
Braves: (0.9 WAR) was re-signed recently, but Harper could provide a four-win bump for the defending NL East champs, who are projected to be about that far out of a Wild Card spot in 2019.
Cardinals: It looks like (1.1 WAR) will get a shot to reclaim right field, with (2.1) and (2.0) also in the picture. An extra three or four wins would move St. Louis (86 wins) from Wild Card team to NL Central favorite over the Cubs (88).
Cubs: There isn't as obvious a spot here as with some other clubs, but an extra couple of wins from either player would provide a little breathing room in what looks like a highly competitive division.
Dodgers: They have an edge of 11 games in the NL West, so a two-win jump from, say, (3.0 WAR) to Harper wouldn't really affect the projected standings. Of course, that doesn't consider the postseason.
Mets: Their offseason thus far has helped put them in Wild Card position at 85 wins, so even two or three additional wins from either player would go a long way toward solidifying that status.
Twins: At a projected two games out of a Wild Card spot, and with the Indians looking vulnerable despite a 10-game gap, Minnesota could bolster its chances considerably. Installing Machado and moving to first for (2.0 WAR) would be about a three-win bump.
Yankees: In a tight division battle with the Red Sox (97 wins), the Yanks (96) theoretically could tack on two or three more big wins by moving aside (1.8 WAR) for Harper or the recently signed (2.4) for Machado.