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Playoff percentages appear to be in Pirates' favor

PITTSBURGH -- The sages at Baseball Prospectus have determined that heading into Wednesday night's game, the Pirates had a 55.5 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Relayed that information, manager Clint Hurdle just stared blankly.

"It doesn't matter," Hurdle finally said. "We've just got to go play the games. I guess it's better than 35 [percent]. We've earned our way to get to 55, I guess. I don't think we were at 55 last year at this time."

Correct. By Aug. 8, 2011, the Pirates' mid-July contention had unraveled into a record of 54-59, and the free fall would continue.

It isn't known how the prognosticators at Baseball Prospectus go about these things, but a meat-and-potatoes approach would strongly suggest that 90 wins is a good target for postseason qualification, at least for one of the two Wild Card berths.

And to reach that lofty number, the Bucs need a relatively conservative 28-25 record to the wire. They began Wednesday's game with 33 wins in their previous 53 games.

PITTSBURGH -- The sages at Baseball Prospectus have determined that heading into Wednesday night's game, the Pirates had a 55.5 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Relayed that information, manager Clint Hurdle just stared blankly.

"It doesn't matter," Hurdle finally said. "We've just got to go play the games. I guess it's better than 35 [percent]. We've earned our way to get to 55, I guess. I don't think we were at 55 last year at this time."

Correct. By Aug. 8, 2011, the Pirates' mid-July contention had unraveled into a record of 54-59, and the free fall would continue.

It isn't known how the prognosticators at Baseball Prospectus go about these things, but a meat-and-potatoes approach would strongly suggest that 90 wins is a good target for postseason qualification, at least for one of the two Wild Card berths.

And to reach that lofty number, the Bucs need a relatively conservative 28-25 record to the wire. They began Wednesday's game with 33 wins in their previous 53 games.

This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.