Inbox: Surprising prospects of the past decade

July 2nd, 2020

Before we take a look at big leaguers of the future, let's reflect on the recent past ...

I really thought Jesus Montero was going to be a star. I never bought into him being more than adequate behind the plate but I was all-in on his bat. He hit .308/.366/.501 in the Minors before making his big league debut with the Yankees at age 21, and he exhibited prodigious power to all fields while making consistent contact.

Montero never worked particularly hard to stay in shape or to improve his defense, which contributed to him getting just one full season as a regular in the Majors. He posted a .685 OPS and was a liability behind the plate in 2012 after going to the Mariners in a deal for Michael Pineda, and he has played in just 73 Major League games since.

I came up with three underestimated players who far exceeded expectations in six-time All-Star Paul Goldschmidt and two-time Cy Young Award winners Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber. Of that group, Kluber stands out the most. When I was editing Baseball America's Prospect Handbooks at the beginning of the decade, he was unranked on our Indians Top 30 entering 2010, No. 26 entering 2011 and unranked again entering 2012.

Kluber didn't distinguish himself with fairly ordinary stuff in the Minors, but he finally enjoyed some extended success in Triple-A once he added a lively two-seam fastball in 2012. He got knocked around in Cleveland that year and was decent the next, then really took off once his breaking ball became a weapon in 2014. After going 44-50 with a 4.42 ERA and a 2.5 K/BB ratio on his climb through the Minors, he has gone 98-58 with a 3.16 ERA and 5.0 K/BB ratio in the big leagues.

First, a disclaimer: Mike Rosenbaum handles our Mets Top 30, so he'll have the final call. But if it were solely up to me, I'd be aggressive and rank their first three selections among their 11 best prospects.

California high school outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (first round) could develop into a plus hitter, runner and center-field defender, so he slots in at No. 6 between right-hander Matt Allan and third baseman Mark Vientos. Mississippi State righty J.T. Ginn's (second) mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider would have landed him in the first round if he hadn't had Tommy John surgery in March, and he fits right behind Crow-Armstrong at what would be No. 7. California prep outfielder Isaiah Greene (supplemental second) has tools similar to Crow-Armstrong's and would go at what would be No. 11 between righty Josh Wolf and lefty Kevin Smith.

I'll take the way over. Development is a priority for the rebuilding Tigers and obviously more difficult than usual in a year without the Minor Leagues. Their outstanding young pitching group of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and Alex Faedo requires innings and already has conquered Double-A, so all of them could get their first taste of the Majors this summer.

There are scouts who believe that No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson could step into Detroit's lineup immediately, though service-time considerations make it more sensible to wait on bringing him up. Third baseman Isaac Paredes could get a look because he needs some quality at-bats after spending last year in Double-A at age 20.

The Giants have one of baseball's most improved farm systems over the past couple of years. I'm going to cheat a little bit by letting recent first-rounders Joey Bart (No. 2 overall, 2018) and Patrick Bailey (No. 13 overall, 2020) split time between catcher and first base so I can get more out of their bats and get them both in the lineup:

C/1B: Joey Bart
1B/C: Patrick Bailey
2B: Will Wilson
3B: Luis Toribio
SS: Marco Luciano
LF: Alexander Canario
CF: Hunter Bishop
RF: Heliot Ramos
SP: Seth Corry

I wanted to squeeze outfielder Luis Matos in there, but there just wasn't room. If the electrifying Luciano outgrows shortstop and winds up at third base, Mauricio Dubon can take over at short.