What to expect from Dunn, Lewis with Mariners

September 10th, 2019

With the Mariners’ Double-A affiliate, the Arkansas Travelers, losing in Game 5 of their Texas League playoff series on Sunday, the parent club had the chance to call up some prospects for the rest of the regular season. Two of the bigger names coming up from that club are right-hander Justin Dunn, the team’s No. 5 prospect (No. 73 overall), and outfielder Kyle Lewis, No. 10 on the Mariners’ Top 30.

Dunn, one of two top prospects the Mariners got from the Mets in the Robinson Cano-Edwin Diaz deal last December, looked very much like one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game. He also was very durable in topping 130 innings pitched for the second straight year (he was fourth in the Texas League this season with 131 2/3 IP), ending any lingering questions from his Draft year about his ability to be a starter long term.

Along the way, Dunn was both a midseason and postseason Texas League All-Star and represented the Mariners in the Futures Game in Cleveland. He led the league in strikeouts with 158 and WHIP (1.19), while he finished fourth with his 3.55 ERA. While hitting double digits in strikeout rate (10.8/9) for the second straight season, he cut his walk rate from 3.5/9 in 2018 with the Mets to 2.7 in his first year with the Mariners.

Using his four-pitch mix effectively, Dunn was consistent all year long, never sporting an ERA above 4.00 in any month during the season. He clearly had plenty left in the tank, with a .200 batting average against in August to go along with a 39/8 K/BB ratio in 31 1/3 IP. Look for him to get some work out of the bullpen, but mostly use the rest of the month to get the lay of the big league land for a larger contribution in 2020.

On the surface, Lewis had what looks like a rather pedestrian season, finishing with a .263/.342/.398 line in the Texas League. And there is a part of this callup that is a tip of the cap for how hard the outfielder has worked to get to this point. A gruesome injury suffered during his debut summer after being the No. 11 overall pick in the 2016 Draft cost him nearly all of the 2017 season and parts of 2018 as well. In 2019, Lewis set career highs in just about every offensive category, most importantly games played and at-bats.

The Mariners also feel he simply had a lot of bad luck. Yes, his 30 percent strikeout rate was a bit high, but their data has him as having hit the ball as hard as anyone in baseball. He made good swing decisions and had good launch angle numbers as well. He just hit a lot of balls hard that landed in gloves.

The Mariners have an internal competition among hitters in the organization. The “regular season” runs April-July and August serves as their “March Madness.” Seedings are based on hard contact, exit velocity, launch angle and swing decisions. Heading into August, Lewis was the No. 1 seed in the tournament. He did struggle in August, so he didn’t win, but he did bounce back to hit .389 in five postseason games.

He also showed why his home park in Arkansas has a reputation as being very pitching-friendly. Lewis hit just .196/.282/.273 at home, but looked like the former Top 100 prospect he was on the road, with a .319/.392/.504 line.