WASHINGTON -- Stephen Strasburg’s changeup wouldn’t have been any less unhittable. The Cardinals probably wouldn’t have suddenly started bashing the ball around Nationals Park. And St. Louis still might have struggled to contain a surging Washington lineup led by unlikely postseason hero Howie Kendrick.

And yet it’s fair to wonder if Monday night might have played out differently for the Cardinals had left fielder Marcell Ozuna held on to the ball that bounced out of his glove as he slid across the outfield grass in the third inning of their 8-1 loss to the Nationals in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series.

“It's not an easy play, any time you have to leave your feet and go a distance and slide. It's a play that he's clearly capable of making, but it's not a play you absolutely expect somebody to make,” manager Mike Shildt said. “There's a lot of other plays in the game that were a factor that I can't single that out as being the fulcrum that led to the rest of the game.”

But when the ball got away from Ozuna, the game started slipping away from the Cardinals. Now they are one loss away from their season ending.

The Nationals had already taken a 1-0 lead in the third, as Victor Robles scored on Adam Eaton’s two-out single up the middle. Even as difficult as hitting has been for the Cardinals against the Nats’ star-studded rotation, a one-run deficit didn’t feel insurmountable -- especially not with ace Jack Flaherty on the mound.

• Dress for the NLCS: Get your Cards gear here

The Nationals didn’t hit Flaherty hard to score their first run. They smacked a pair of ground balls that found holes. Flaherty struck out Trea Turner, putting himself in position to escape the inning. All the Cardinals needed was one more out.

Flaherty got ahead of NL MVP Award candidate Anthony Rendon and stood one strike away from the third out. But Rendon does not go down swinging easily, as he struck out in only 86 of his 646 plate appearances during the regular season, and he showed why against Flaherty.

Flaherty fired an 86.5-mph slider just below the strike zone, right where he wanted it, and Rendon found a way to flick it into left field.

“Rendon does a good job of not punching out on what I felt was a pretty good, executed pitch,” Flaherty said. “That’s what he does. That’s why he is who he is.”

Per Statcast, Ozuna had a 75 percent chance to make the catch. The former Gold Glove Award winner capably covered the necessary 67 feet in 4.3 seconds, sliding underneath the ball as it dropped toward the grass.

But according to Ozuna's manager and teammates, it was a much tougher play than that probability might indicate. He may have slid too early, if anything, or maybe he slid too hard to squeeze his glove around the ball. Either way, the ball found the webbing of his glove, then quickly slipped out.

Ozuna elected not to comment after the game.

“That’s a tough play,” second baseman Kolten Wong said. “Any time you’re sliding feet-first like that trying to make a play, as soon as you hit the ground, there’s going to be some kind of movement. I think that’s what jarred the ball out of his glove.”

The Nationals seized the opportunity, as they’ve done all series to support their sterling starting pitching. Eaton dashed home to score, giving the Nats a 2-0 lead and another chance to wear down Flaherty.

“You have to do that in the playoffs. When they give you the crack in the door, you’ve got to knock it down,” Eaton said. “So a two-out hit for myself, and then as soon as that ball is hit, I’m thinking I’m scoring right away. You have to do that. You can’t lollygag, you can’t take it easy. If there’s something to get, you have to go out and get it.”

Those two runs were enough for the Nationals to win the game, but they did not relent. Juan Soto played his part, working an eight-pitch walk. A wild pitch skipped past catcher Yadier Molina, allowing both runners to advance into scoring position. Rather than walking Kendrick to face hot-hitting veteran Ryan Zimmerman, Flaherty threw the one pitch he still wanted back late Monday night: a 93.5-mph fastball that Kendrick cracked to right field for a two-run double.

“He put a good swing on it. That’s how that inning unfolded,” Flaherty said. “But you just look at it, for me, I’m one pitch away there -- executing one to Kendrick. Maybe we get a different result, walk out of there 2-0, different ballgame.”

“That was probably the biggest part of that -- that pitch at that moment,” Shildt agreed. “But I thought Jack was good. It's 4-0, and unfortunately, we've got to hit for him.”

But it could have felt entirely different had Ozuna made the catch and kept the Nationals’ lead at one run.

Perhaps Flaherty would have found his groove and rolled through the middle innings with the Cardinals’ first lead of the series still within reach. Maybe if the Cards hadn’t been desperate for runs with a four-run deficit, Shildt wouldn’t have lifted Flaherty for pinch-hitter Matt Carpenter in the fifth inning. Then Flaherty wouldn’t have given way to a middle relief corps that allowed four runs in the final four innings.

With the Nationals shutting down their lineup, the Cardinals can only look back at moments like that and wonder what might have been.

“The breaks haven’t been going our way right now,” Wong said, “but we’ve got to figure out a way.”