The young guys keep getting it done in the postseason, don’t they? On Wednesday alone, top Braves pitching prospect Ian Anderson put up more zeroes to help the Braves go up 2-0 against the Marlins. Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena keeps finding the seats, with two homers for the Rays in the ALDS against the Yankees. Dodgers right-hander Dustin May got the win as he tossed two perfect innings of relief against the Padres. The list goes on and on.

It gives us plenty to talk about on the Pipeline side of things and this week’s Inbox reflects that, with a couple of questions about postseason rookies, as well as a query about two top Mariners international signings and one about the 2020 Draft.

It’s always great when someone answers their own question for Inbox. It makes our job a lot easier, so thanks for that. You are indeed correct that the 2016 Draft has been a really, really good one for the Dodgers. And that’s without Gavin Lux having contributed much in 2020. Even so, the 5.0 bWAR produced by the quartet this year is easily the highest of any class for their team.

That doesn’t count Mitch White, who made his big league debut this year but isn’t on the postseason roster. Or Devin Smeltzer and Andre Scrubb, who played for the Twins and Astros, respectively (Scrubb is on Houston’s playoff roster). Or Dean Kremer, who made his debut with the Orioles this year. And there are a handful of others who could very well reach the Major Leagues in the future, from Jordan Sheffield to DJ Peters.

There have been some other teams who have had success in building playoff teams through the Draft. The Astros tied the Dodgers with the most draftees on a roster (10). Their 2015 Draft hasn’t been as productive this year (1.6 WAR), but there are four players from that class on the roster. And there are some interesting Draft class tandems in the playoffs, almost all playing for other teams.

2011 Red Sox: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), Jordan Weems (A’s)
2015 Rays: Brandon Lowe, Jake Cronenworth (Padres)
2009 Cubs: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), Brooks Raley (Astros)
2011 Pirates: Gerrit Cole (Yankees), Tyler Glasnow (Rays)

That last one is fun because the Yankees and Rays are currently facing each other in the ALDS. That 2011 Draft is also the most productive one in 2020, in terms of players in the postseason. The top three, according to WAR:

2011: 15.8
2012: 14.2
2015: 11.7

The Mariners farm system has improved tremendously over the last couple of years and one reason that isn’t talked about as much as the high Draft picks or the trades has been the work they’ve done on the international amateur market. Rodriguez signed for $1.75 million back in July 2017 while Marte signed for $1.55 million a year later. So yes, Rodriguez having an additional year under his belt certainly helps in terms of determining prospect status given that he’s been seen a lot more. He’s played across two levels of Class A ball and more than held his own in the Arizona Fall League while Marte has yet to play an official game in the United States, though he was the youngest player at the alternate site in Tacoma.

It pays to look at the grades we have on their tools, keeping in mind they are future grades on the 20-80 scouting scale:

Rodriguez: 55 Hit, 60 Power, 45 Run, 60 Arm, 55 Field, 60 Overall
Marte: 50 Hit, 55 Power, 60 Run, 55 Arm, 50 Field, 50 Overall

It goes beyond just the fact that J-Rod has an extra year of experience. As of right now, anyway, his projected tools are just a bit louder and he’s shown he can use them against much older competition. So even though Marte runs better, I’d say Rodriguez is the better prospect. Obviously, we feel that way since we have him No. 2 on the Mariners list and Marte is No. 7. Now, if Marte comes and blows by those projections, certainly not out of the question, then we might have to revisit this.

There is no doubt Javier has been very impressive in the big leagues, both during the regular season (3.48 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 0.99 WHIP, .188 BAA) and especially in the postseason out of the bullpen (four hitless innings, four strikeouts). He’s graduated off of prospect lists, but he was No. 6 on the Astros Top 30 at the start of the year.

There are a couple of things to take into consideration. One is that as impressive as he’s been, it’s still a small sample size. Including the postseason, he’s thrown just 58 1/3 total innings as of Wednesday. So I wouldn’t file him under the “he should definitely have been in the Top 100” umbrella, where I’m the first to admit several players belong.

Javier has always had really good stuff, with a high spin rate fastball, two breaking balls and a solid changeup, all coming from a deceptive delivery. The big hold up, however, has been his walk rate: 3.9 BB/9 throughout his Minor League career, 4.7 as he hit the upper levels of the system in 2019. It still remains to be seen if his approach will play long-term against more selective big league hitters and if he can continue to throw strikes more consistently (3.0 BB/9 during the 2020 regular season) to start. He might be more of a No. 4-type starter or he could end up in the bullpen, the main reason why he wasn’t in the Top 100

There are a couple of ways to look at this question. The first would be to pick out the higher-ranked guys from our Draft Top 200 who went after the first round because of signabillity or other concerns. Going that route, a top five impact players taken in Rounds 2-5:

1. Jared Kelley, RHP, White Sox (Ranked No. 12, taken in 2nd round, No. 47 overall)
2. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Padres (Ranked No. 23, taken in 3rd round, No. 80 overall)
3. Dillon Dingler, C, Tigers (Ranked No. 24, taken in 2nd round, No. 38 overall)
4. Chris McMahon, RHP, Rockies (Ranked No. 29, taken in 2nd round, No. 46 overall)
5. Casey Martin, SS, Phillies (Ranked No. 30, taken in 3rd round, No. 87 overall)

Beyond that, there are some players who jump out as guys who the industry, or the team that took them, valued more than we ended up ranking them. And there are some who I really like based on conversations with scouts leading up to the Draft. Keep in mind, Jim Callis and I split the country in half, so I’m likely to pick “favorites” from my areas. But here’s a player to watch from each round, almost all pitchers:

2nd: Owen Caissie, OF, Padres (No. 45 overall pick out of Canadian high school ranks)
3rd: Nick Garcia, RHP, Pirates (No. 79 overall pick out of Chapman University)
4th: Beck Way, RHP, Yankees (No. 129 overall pick out of Northwest Florida State JC)
5th: Carter Baumler, RHP, Orioles (No. 133 overall pick out of Iowa high school ranks)