Inbox: Will Dobnak stay in the rotation?

Beat reporter Do-Hyoung Park answers fans' questions

July 28th, 2020

The Twins reigned supreme in the clash of the division's top two offenses to open their season, plating 27 runs over three games against the White Sox and taking advantage of another special delivery from American League Player of the Week winner -- seven hits, three homers, seven runs, 10 RBIs over the series -- to decisively win Sunday's rubber match over their AL Central rivals.

They'll now have to use Monday's off-day to regroup and buckle in, because the upcoming stretch of schedule is unforgiving. Starting with Tuesday's home opener against the Cardinals, the Twins will have to play 36 games in 37 days through Sept. 2, with the club's lone off-day in that stretch coming on Aug. 13 -- in between a stretch of 16 consecutive games and another of 20.

Seems like a good time to stretch out, take a deep breath and look back at what we've learned about the Twins over their first three games before this big -- potentially even season-defining -- stretch of games.

did, indeed, look quite good on Saturday, when he allowed one run on three hits over four innings in a start in place of the injured . That was a spot start, but manager Rocco Baldelli indicated after that game that Dobnak would continue to see starting opportunities moving forward.

"I think Dob's earned some real opportunities," Baldelli said. "Obviously, we continue to watch and evaluate everything as we see it, matchups as we run into different teams and things like that. I think it's safe to say we're going to see Dobber back out there and making some starts for us. We're not going to lock in on anything yet, but I think that's something he's definitely earned."

Now, I don't think that necessarily equates to a consistent place in the rotation, both because that's not the only way in which Dobnak can provide value, and also because the Twins have a large group of veteran starters -- Odorizzi, , , and, eventually, -- who are rooted in their routines. I'm sure there will still be chances for Dobnak to make his mark, whether as a long reliever in big situations or making starts here and there where matchup considerations dictate an advantage.

That flexibility is actually considerable added value in my mind. It's important to keep as many starting-caliber pitchers in the fray as possible from a depth standpoint, and Baldelli already knows that Dobnak can be effective and flexible on short notice in whatever role the Twins need. That's not necessarily something we can say for sure about, say, Bailey or Pineda, who have been starters throughout their careers. Pitching coach Wes Johnson said earlier this summer that the swingman/long relief role is among the toughest in baseball -- and it's a luxury for the Twins that they have someone like Dobnak who has taken so well to it.

I'd say the Twins will give as long as he needs. We saw just this weekend that the depth of the Twins' lineup helps mask lack of production from any one or two spots in the lineup. Consider that the Twins scored 27 runs in three games while walked a few times and managed an infield single -- or that they scored 14 runs in the series finale with three of their most important starters on the bench. This team can generally afford to drop Sanó into the eighth spot in the lineup and let him work things out.

Why go to the trouble? Because the upside is elite.

It's easy to forget that before Sanó put up career-best numbers last season, he also started extremely slowly with a .195/.278/.483 line through his first 31 games as he acclimated to the season. The Twins stuck with him, and he rewarded them with not only a steady stream of homers, but also bombas in big spots late in the division chase. The upside there is that Sanó's exit velocity and barrel numbers are Top 5 in the sport when he's on. So long as the whole offense doesn't start slumping at once, the Twins can afford to be patient as Sanó gets acclimated.

Really good question. I think that the trend of having an early hook for starting pitchers will at least continue until rosters condense back down to a more standard size, even if those pitchers have more left in the tank. There's something to be said for leaving an ace in the game if he's shoving, but modern front offices and coaching staffs are becoming more attuned -- and responsive -- to the steep penalty that starting pitchers face when they go through a lineup for a third time. (Just ask Odorizzi, who saw a handful of earlier-than-expected exits last year.)

So long as you have a deep bullpen -- and the Twins are carrying 10 relievers, including two long men, for now -- you can afford to get your starter out of there and turn to your relievers for fresh innings in bulk without overly taxing any arms. , Dobnak and Maeda went four, four and five innings, respectively, this past weekend, and the Twins still got out of it using only more than once out of their bullpen -- and without touching or at all.

If you have all those arms sitting around and the capability of leveraging matchups to the fullest extent, why not take advantage?

I'm inclined to think that Aaron Whitefield will survive the first round of cuts because his skill set is uniquely applicable to important situations throughout the season.

Having both and on the active roster is redundant in a way. They're both decent defenders with solid bats, but assuming health around the roster, you're not really ever going to dig all the way down to a fifth outfielder outside of true garbage time in a shortened season. I'm finding it difficult to imagine a late or close scenario where you're replacing , or with Cave or Wade.

On the other hand, Whitefield is uniquely built for several of those situations due to his elite baserunning and defensive ability. Take the new extra-inning rule, for example, where a runner begins each half-inning on second base. Having Whitefield as a pinch-runner will considerably increase the Twins' margin for error. And in close games, it's a luxury for Baldelli to be able to plug the Australian rookie into left and have three true center fielders manning his outfield between Whitefield, Buxton and Kepler.

Frankly, it wouldn't stun me if Whitefield made it all the way to the final 26. The Twins managed just fine with a 25-man roster last year, and they could afford to get creative with that final slot -- especially when Whitefield can be a real difference-maker in those important close games.

You could easily extend that same argument about slotting in Cave against Wednesday's probable starter, Miles Mikolas, who also pitches right-handed. As a whole, I don't think there's any real way to keep Buxton off the field when he's fully healthy because he just adds that much value with his defense and baserunning. Like I said earlier about Sanó, even if Buxton initially struggles a bit at the plate, the Twins' lineup is deep enough to hide that.

Cave will get his opportunities. I'd be surprised if Baldelli immediately pushes Buxton into everyday action, which should give Cave some more looks in the short term. In the long term, these issues of playing time tend to sort themselves out due to injury or considerations of rest, anyway. I wouldn't be too worried about this.

The Garv Sauce beer, obviously. All jokes aside, it's a very pleasant drink.