Clock is ticking for Boston in AL East race

May 23rd, 2019

For now, the Red Sox currently don’t have a closer or bullpen good enough for them to defend their World Series championship. They have two of their October home run heroes -- Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Steve Pearce -- both hitting well south of .200. They are still recovering from a 3-8 and 6-13 start, and they are 3 1/2 games behind the Rays for the first Wild Card spot in the American League entering Thursday. Through Wednesday night’s games, the Red Sox had the same number of losses as the Indians and the Rangers. If Boston had blown Wednesday’s game to the Blue Jays -- which it kept trying to do despite 3-1 and 4-2 leads and then a 5-4 lead in extra innings -- the Red Sox would have walked away from it four games better in the loss column than Toronto.

They keep saying it’s early in Boston. But you know what Yogi Berra said about how it gets late early around here. The Yankees are in first place in the AL East. The Red Sox are in third. If the Red Sox don’t pick things up fast -- with series coming up on the road against the Astros and the Yankees -- they could be 10 games out of first in the division by next week.

“It wasn’t easy,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said after ’ 13th-inning home run finally put the Sox ahead for good.

Very little has been easy for the Red Sox this season, even against sub-.500 teams like the Blue Jays. Going into Thursday afternoon’s Boston-Toronto game, the Sox are 21-15 so far against teams like that. That doesn’t look too bad, except for the fact that the four best teams in the AL have this record against sub-.500 teams:

Yankees: 23-9
Rays: 18-8
Astros: 16-3
Twins: 24-8

The Red Sox have had one significant injury this season, to Nathan Eovaldi --another of their October pitching stars; as much of a star, when you add up what he did and when he did it in the postseason, as David Price was. The Yankees? You know what a MASH unit they have been. Aaron Judge has been on the injured list, so has Giancarlo Stanton, so has Luis Severino, so has Dellin Betances. Didi Gregorius, their shortstop, is still recovering from last season’s Tommy John surgery. Aaron Hicks, the starting center fielder, just joined the season. Yankees fans know all this the way they know about the ending to “Game of Thrones,” as their team tries to take back the throne in the AL East.

Cora has variously tried to replace Craig Kimbrel, last year’s (currently unemployed) closer, with Ryan Brasier, Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree. On Wednesday night against the Blue Jays, he tried Marcus Walden when the Red Sox were trying to close out a 4-3 game. The Blue Jays tied it off Walden, who did manage to pitch out of a one-out, bases-loaded mess after they did. Hembree eventually got the last three outs of the bottom of the 13th, but not before Rowdy Tellez had tied the game with a two-out homer in the 12th. This is a bullpen that gave away a game to the Rockies last week at Fenway, and then the Astros.

The Red Sox have absolutely fought their way out of that 6-13 start, have played 20-10 ball since then, not dug an even bigger ditch for themselves. But the Yankees, who were carried by guys like Gio Urshela early but are now being carried by Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres, started out 8-10, and have now gone on a 23-7 rip -- even though it does sometimes seem as if they play the Orioles every single week. And the reality of the season being played so far is that the Red Sox have played more games against sub-.500 teams than the Yankees have.

The defending champions have three games at Minute Maid Park this weekend against the Astros. Three next week at Yankee Stadium against the Yankees. This is a team that won 108 games last season and then went 11-3 in October. The Red Sox are supposed to do a little more than hold their own against the varsity. They have their chance right now.

Since April 29, the Red Sox do have the third-best record in the league, and they are even a half-game better than Yankees since then. Chavis has made a huge difference in the order. But the bullpen continues to be an issue. And it’s always worth remembering that the best Red Sox relievers last October were their best starters. Maybe they can do it again this October. They have to get there first.

Of course it’s early; that’s not just a default position in Boston. Of course it doesn’t even become a 50-game season for the Red Sox until they’ve finished Thursday’s game against the Blue Jays. Of course the Red Sox have worked hard to changed their own narrative over the past month, and would be in the AL Wild Card Game if the season ended today. Of course, only one Wild Card team (2014 Giants) has won a World Series since MLB moved to the two-Wild Card format in 2012.

Bottom line: The Red Sox still should be better than three games over .500. This would be a good time for this season to look like last season. By the time they play the Yankees in London at the end of June, they don’t want their fans wondering whether Chris Sale or David Price should start the AL Wild Card Game.