Which Draft prospect will reach the Majors quickest?

May 31st, 2018

I've had several people ask how many picks will be made and what the broadcast schedule will be for each of the three days of the Draft, so here goes:
:: Complete prospect coverage ::
Monday -- Draft preview show (MLB Network, MLB.com) at 6 p.m. ET. First round, first-round compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round A (MLB Network, MLB.com), starting at 7 p.m. ET, followed by second round, Competitive Balance Round B and second-round compensation picks (MLB.com only).
Tuesday -- Day 2 preview show (MLB.com) at 12:30 p.m. ET. Third through 10th rounds (MLB.com), starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Wednesday -- Eleventh through 40th rounds via team conference call (MLB.com) at noon ET.
Before all that, tune in to our Top 100 Draft Prospects special (MLB Network, MLB.com), which will premiere at 9:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. And check out all of MLB Pipeline's written content at Draft Central.
:: Submit a question to the Pipeline Inbox ::

As of now, I believe the teams with the first five selections -- in order, the Tigers, Giants, Phillies, White Sox and Reds -- will make their decisions based on ability rather than signability. I do present a couple of possible alternative scenarios in the video at the top of this Inbox.

The leading candidate for the first draftee to reach the Major Leagues usually is the best college reliever, and this year that's Texas Christian right-hander Durbin Feltman. With a running 95-99 mph fastball and a power slider that give him two well above-average pitches at times, he has logged a 0.74 ERA and a 43/6 K/BB ratio in 24 1/3 innings this spring.
Breaking this question down further by demographics, Auburn right-hander Casey Mize should be the first college starter and Oregon State second baseman Nick Madrigal should be the first college hitter to make it to the big leagues. On the high school side, left-hander Matt Liberatore (Mountain Ridge High, Glendale, Ariz.) and outfielder Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha, Wis., West High) are the frontrunners.

The obvious answer is a high school right-hander, because this Draft is deep with them and they often don't go as high as they should because a lot of clubs consider them risky investments. My pick for the most talented player who will go in the second round is Brandon (Miss.) HS righty J.T. Ginn.
Besides being a prep righty, Ginn also creates concerns because he's a bit smaller than desired, he throws with considerable effort and he's already 19 years old. But he also has one of the best 1-2 pitch combos in the Draft, with a fastball that reaches 99 mph with late life and a wipeout mid-80s slider. He's athletic enough to repeat his delivery and throw strikes, so don't bet against him remaining a starter.

The Mid-American Conference pitcher of the year in both 2017 and '18, Murray is a Kent State right-hander with a massive gap between his performance and the quality of his pure stuff. He ranks first in NCAA Division I in hits per nine innings (4.5), fourth in strikeouts (139), sixth in strikeouts per nine innings (13.2) and 11th in ERA (1.71). Yet there are days when he doesn't have better than an average pitch.
Murray owns an 87-91 mph fastball, but it's so deceptive that one scout noted how hitters react like they're facing a 98-mph heater. He'll flash a solid curveball and also possesses an average changeup and a fringy slider. He'll have to keep proving he can succeed with such a modest arsenal, but his track record of performance could push him to the fifth round.