Inbox: Where do O's stand ahead of the Draft?

Beat reporter Joe Trezza answers questions from fans

May 27th, 2020

Hello and welcome to another edition of the Orioles Inbox, our first in a while. It’s been too long.

Before we dive into your questions, I want to thank our readers for their continued enthusiasm and engagement with baseball on pause due to the coronavirus pandemic. Your passion is recognized, acknowledged and appreciated.

Now let's get into your questions, many of which involved the upcoming MLB Draft. It will be an enormous two days for the franchise, regardless of what else is going on in the world.

Are the Orioles set on either Spencer Torkelson or Austin Martin (depending on who the Tigers take at No. 1)? Or are they still considering pitching prospects such as Asa Lacy?
-- @mattbollinger18

The short answer is: I don’t think anything is decided as of this moment, and as owners of the No. 2 overall pick, the Orioles will give themselves enough flexibility to react to any surprises on Draft night. But let’s go with a longer answer here and use this question to provide an overview of where the O’s stand two weeks before the Draft.

The five-round 2020 Draft is set for June 10-11. The Orioles have six picks, including the No. 2, No. 30 and No. 39 overall selections. They also have the largest bonus pool in the Draft -- $13,894,300 to spread out over six picks. It’s an enviable position to be in.

With little amateur baseball played this spring and teams relying solely on video scouting, pre-Draft prospect lists have been more static compared to years past. The top three prospects per MLB Pipeline are Arizona State slugger Spencer Torkelson, Vanderbilt infielder Austin Martin and Texas A&M lefty Asa Lacy, with many expecting the Tigers to take Torkelson first overall. This Draft class is considered position-player heavy at the top and deep in pitching, particularly from the college ranks.

So what do the O’s do? They have options. Both MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo have Baltimore taking Martin in their latest mock drafts, assuming Torkelson goes No. 1 to Detroit. The Southeastern Conference’s reigning batting champion, Martin is seen as the best pure hitter in the Draft. The Orioles would also happily take Torkelson if he fell into their laps, but they can go the pitching route with Lacy or Georgia righty Emerson Hancock if concerns over Martin’s arm and eventual position prove too much.

The working theory, though, is that the Orioles won’t overthink it too much. Martin has one of the highest floors in the Draft; there are enough college arms available for the O’s to grab him at No. 2 and still have solid options at 30 and 39, if they want to go that route.

Do you think the Orioles do an under-slot deal at No. 2 so they can go above slot at 30 or 39? If so, who are some names you've heard regarding a 30th or 39th pick?
-- @HailtoThefutuRe

That’s possible for any team picking high in the Draft, and given the economic uncertainty 2020 is presenting, I wouldn’t take it off the table. The general sense at this point, though, is that it’s still unlikely.

Simply, the O’s huge bonus pool means they don’t really have to save high in the Draft to spend money later. It should also allow them to go after a high-end high school arm who drops a bit because of signability concerns, perhaps even with a college position player and pitcher already in the bag. They have more spending power than any other club.

All that said, if they try to go under slot at No. 2, a name to keep in mind is Nick Gonzales. The New Mexico State middle infielder has similar tools to Martin and is the reigning Cape Cod League MVP. But he’s always been dinged a bit by the fact that he played his college home games in New Mexico’s high-altitude environment. I’ve only heard good things about him from Orioles people -- there is a chance they believe he’s comparable enough to Martin to take their chances, then gamble their favorite arms will still be available later. Of MLB Pipeline’s Top 20-60 ranked Draft prospects, 26 are pitchers -- 18 from the college ranks.

With the Orioles' first-round Draft position, I imagine they'll take the best player available. What's their strategy after the first round? Picks 30 and 39 are very valuable as well.
-- @alex_pollack0

It's difficult to say at this juncture, but overall, the expectation is for teams to lean toward college position players in this Draft -- with data being the reason. Most teams use data-based models to drive their Draft decisions, and given the lack of baseball played this spring, there simply is less of it than usual. That is going to make the two high-risk Draft demographics -- pitchers and high schoolers -- bigger gambles than ever.

Will Renato Núñez get time at a corner infield spot, or will he be the primary designated hitter again?
-- @vinsonseed

Nothing wrong with a question about the current team. The Orioles worked Núñez out at both corner spots this spring, often lauding his improvements with the glove. While he was still set to start the year as their primary DH, the assumption was that he would need to increase his versatility with bat-first prospect Ryan Mountcastle nearly big league ready. Then Trey Mancini’s cancer diagnosis happened, easing Baltimore’s bat-first corner-type logjam a bit. Mancini being out should probably free up more at-bats for Núñez at DH than originally planned.