Down the stretch, Rogers setting tone for '23

Reigning NL ROY runner-up strikes out 8 in second solid start post-IL

September 8th, 2022

PHILADELPHIA -- There isn't enough time left for to salvage his overall 2022 numbers. But there is plenty of opportunity for him to set the tone for his '23 season.

Rogers continued to do exactly that on Wednesday night at Citizens Bank Park, despite the Marlins' 4-3 loss to the Phillies -- their ninth straight defeat. He matched a season high with eight strikeouts over six innings, and while he allowed three runs on a pair of homers, it's important to put each of those two hits in context.

After all, the first home run -- a two-run blast by Edmundo Sosa in the third inning -- traveled a Statcast-projected 378 feet, narrowly clearing the left-field fence. It would have been a home run in only 11 other ballparks, per Statcast.

Though Rogers left a changeup over the plate on Sosa's shot, there was little the left-hander could do about the other homer. Facing Jean Segura one inning later, Rogers threw a 1-1 slider that dived low and inside -- like, really low and inside.

The pitch was 1.38 feet from the center of home plate and only 1.23 feet off the ground. Yet somehow, Segura turned on the pitch and golfed a towering fly ball that went only 354 feet before disappearing just behind the wall in the left-field corner. Segura's homer would have left only nine other ballparks, and neither of Philadelphia's homers would have left Miami's loanDepot park.

But just how improbable was Segura's homer?

Since Statcast began tracking in 2015, no right-handed batter had homered off a pitch that was more than 1.3 feet from the center of the plate inside and less than 1.4 feet off the ground, let alone just 1.2 feet. In fact, only two righty hitters this season had even homered off a pitch that far inside -- and each of those pitches was more than two feet above the ground.

“How Segura even got to that ball, I have no idea,” Rogers said. “So just tip your cap.”

Added manager Don Mattingly: “To be able to keep it fair -- that ball is so far down and in, to keep it fair, that’s really hard to do. So that was just a nice piece of hitting.”

Sure, all home runs count the same. But those details matter to a Marlins team that has largely shifted its focus to laying the groundwork for 2023. And they certainly matter for Rogers, whose performance figures to play a key role in how Miami's '23 season unfolds.

Following an impressive 2021 rookie season that saw Rogers finish second in NL Rookie of the Year voting, the 24-year-old southpaw has struggled throughout '22. He had a 5.85 ERA in 19 starts before landing on the IL on July 29 due to back spasms.

But Mattingly believes those issues actually began down the stretch last year. After going 7-3 with a 1.87 ERA and a .199 opponents' batting average through his first 14 starts in 2021, Rogers finished 0-5 with a 3.86 ERA and a .246 opponents' average over his final 11 starts. Mattingly believes those struggles may have carried over into Rogers’ offseason work, and as a result, the start of this season.

So could a strong finish in 2022 carry over in a similar fashion to ’23?

“He kind of struggled in the second half last year, and I think that's where some of the habits started,” Mattingly said. “For him to finish strong would be really important for his offseason workouts, because then he'd be confident; and he's kind of back on track with what he's working on and what he's doing. During the winter is the time to be able to kind of set those habits in stone. So I think it's really important for him.”

“It would be huge for me,” Rogers agreed. “Just with the season I’ve had, to end off on a good note and finish strong.”

He’s trending in the right direction. Prior to Wednesday’s tough-luck outing, Rogers tossed six innings of one-run ball against the Rays on Aug. 31, which came on the heels of racking up 12 strikeouts over six scoreless frames for Triple-A Jacksonville in his final rehab start.

“He’s in a really good spot mechanically,” said catcher Jacob Stallings, whose ninth-inning solo homer snapped Miami’s streak of nine straight games scoring two runs or fewer. “I know he’s excited, and obviously, we’re all excited. It’s really good to see from him.”