What to expect from Jarren Duran

July 16th, 2021

After finishing with the fourth-worst record in MLB a year ago, the Red Sox lead the American League East with the fourth-best mark in 2021. Set to open the second half against the Yankees, they're upgrading their offense with one of the more dynamic prospects in the game.

Boston reportedly will promote outfielder Jarren Duran, ranked No. 86 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list, when its series against New York begins. He was slated to start in center field and bat seventh on Thursday, but the opener of a four-game series was postponed following positive COVID-19 tests within the Yankees organization.

Duran, 24, has made a meteoric rise since getting drafted in the seventh round in 2018 out of Long Beach State, where he batted .294/.376/.377 in three seasons while playing his home games in one of college baseball's better pitcher's parks. The Red Sox were attracted to his plus-plus speed and were pleasantly surprised when he broke into pro ball by hitting .357/.394/.516 with 24 steals in 67 games between short-season Lowell and Low-A Greenville. He also began his transition from second base, his college position, to the outfield.

Duran raised his profile even further at the start of 2019, batting .387/.456/.543 with 18 steals in 50 games at High-A Salem. He played in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game in Cleveland, and it's believed he's the lowest Draft pick ever to play in the prospect showcase during his first full pro season.

But Duran struggled for the first time when he got to Double-A Portland, hitting just .250/.309/.325 with 28 steals in 82 contests, raising some concerns about whether he could be more than a slap hitter. He didn't show much power in the Arizona Fall League during the offseason either, and he often had to use his speed to overcome inefficient routes in the outfield. 

Duran didn't get a chance to bounce back in the Minors when the 2020 season was lost to the coronavirus pandemic. He did get development time at Boston's alternative training site, however, and left club officials enthused with his offensive and defensive progress. He added more loft to his left-handed swing and started incorporating his lower half better at the plate while also improving his reads and routes in center field.

Those gains were apparent when Duran played winter ball to regain some of his lost at-bats and won MVP honors in the Puerto Rican Winter League playoffs and hit .400/.500/.640 at the Caribbean Series. In 2021, he has batted .340/.367/.702 with three homers in 47 at-bats during Spring Training and .270/.365/.561 with 15 homers and 12 steals in 46 games at Triple-A Worcester. He also starred for Team USA as it won an Olympic qualifying tournament in June. 

Duran's best tool remains his plus-plus speed, which helps him turn ground balls into base hits, create havoc on the basepaths and chase down fly balls in the gaps. His power has improved at least two grades since he has turned pro, and he looks like he'll be able to produce 20 or more homers per season while stealing at least as many bases. He has adopted a more aggressive approach than he had at Long Beach State but also is drawing more walks as pitchers respect his newfound pop.

Duran's defensive improvement also is obvious. He's more confident tracking balls and his center-field play has gone from 40-45 on the 20-80 scouting scale to 50-55. While he has fringy arm strength, it's playable in center and he compensates by getting to balls quickly.

Kiké Hernández has logged most of Boston's starts in center field this season, with Alex Verdugo and Danny Santana (currently on the 10-day injured list with a quadriceps injury) also getting time there. Red Sox manager Alex Cora suggested that Duran will get regular playing time in center against right-handers, with Hernández sliding to second base again righties. The club will protect Duran, a leadoff hitter throughout his Minor League career, by keeping him toward the bottom of the order as he breaks into the Majors.

In 2007, rookie center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury provide a spark in September and the playoffs as the Red Sox won their second World Series in four years. Duran has similar tools and the opportunity to do the same for Boston this season.