Yankees-Red Sox to star in AL East clash in '19

March 18th, 2019

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- As we approach the start of a new season, a lot of Yankee fans I know, and you can trust me on this one, still haven’t quite let go of the last one.

Yeah, they say, the Red Sox won 108 games, but how would everything have worked if we’d swept that four-game series at Fenway in August and not them? Who ends up winning the American League East then? And when Yankee fans talk about another four-game series, the Division Series the two teams played in October, they remember how the Red Sox were hanging on for dear life at the end of Game 4, and wonder how everything works out if Gary Sanchez hits the ball a few feet further against Craig Kimbrel in the bottom of the ninth.

Now the Yankees have added James Paxton, more relief pitching and Aaron Judge is healthy. The Yankees themselves are saying they might even hit more home runs than the record-breaking 267 they hit in the regular season last year. Even though Aaron Hicks won’t be ready to start the season at the same time as his teammates, and Luis Severino has a sore shoulder and won’t pitch until May at the earliest, the Yankees are ready to shorten games with their bullpen and hit more home runs than anybody and win the AL East for the first time in seven years.

By the way, you hear a lot about how the Yankees never have a losing season. They seemingly don't, with their most recent coming in 1992. Seven years is a long time for them to go without winning the East, the way 10 years is a long time for them to go without playing in, or winning, a World Series.

I asked an AL manager the other day how good he thinks the 2019 Yankees are. Here was his answer:

“I think they are good if their rotation holds up, or if they don’t have to absorb so many innings in the 'pen early. I like their team. But their starting pitchers are low impact.”

Then I asked the best Yankee fan I know, one whom I have quoted in this space before, just because his take on his team is always both informed and realistic, which team he liked better for the East this year:

“The Sox lineup remains superior. More dynamic, more versatile. Their best players are better than the Yankees' best players. As much as I love Judge, I’d still take [Mookie] Betts over him. J.D. [Martinez] over [Giancarlo] Stanton isn’t a debate. The Yanks have kids [Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar] who should be even be better in 2019 than they were in ‘18. So do the Sox -- Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers. The Sox have pitching questions, absolutely, especially in the 'pen. But I trust [president of baseball operations] Dave Dombrowski to answer those Sox pitching questions more than I trust [general manager] Brian Cashman to answer his team’s pitching questions. And with Severino down for at least a month with a cranky shoulder, the Yankees, as much as I’m sure they’d like to convince themselves otherwise, have some real pitching questions.

“Maybe this team will get healthier as the spring goes along, but right now, the injuries have to be a concern: Severino, Hicks, Didi Gregorius. Even their top prospect and potential trade chip -- [Estevan] Florial -- can’t get out of Spring Training without another broken wrist. And then there is this -- over the last 15 years, it’s the Red Sox, and not the Yankees, who as an organization have shown more of a winning DNA. When the sides appear to be that close, give me the team with the winning DNA every time.”

This doesn’t mean that the manager to whom I spoke is right, nor is this Yankee fan, though in a rivalry that is endlessly fascinating, it is rather fascinating that a passionate Yankee fan now refers to the Red Sox as having the “winning DNA,” just because in the last century “winning DNA” was more the Yankee brand than anything else.

If it’s a battle of bullpens, you bet the Yankees are the ones who win this time, even though the Red Sox have the better starting rotation with David Price, Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and Nathan Eovaldi. The season starts in 10 days and the Red Sox really don’t know who their closer is, or their setup man. The Yankees? They really have three guys who can close -- Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Zack Britton -- and a fourth guy, Adam Ottavino, who could do it if he had to.

And if it’s a Home Run Derby contest between the two teams, the Yankees win that one going away. But it’s not a Home Run Derby contest this season any more than it was last year in the AL East. The Red Sox not only have the league’s reigning MVP in Betts, they have a guy in Martinez who hit more home runs than anybody the Yankees have (Judge, of course, missed 50 games with a wrist injury), and who was the most important hitter in the game last season. And they have a more balanced order because of more left-handed bats than the Yankees have.

Nobody, certainly not me, is dismissing the Rays after they shocked the world by winning 90 games last season. But Red Sox vs. Yankees still does look like the main event.

So, are you more worried about the Red Sox relievers than the Yankees starters? Do you think a healthy Judge and Stanton playing his second year in the big city will bash the rest of the division in the way we thought they would last season? The Yankees have a cupcake early schedule. The Red Sox start out West. I like the Yankees to get a jump early and then make the Sox chase them all summer. Who do you like?