Surprising HOF ballot 1-and-done pitchers

Brown, Cone, Saberhagen, Doc had strong resumes

January 24th, 2024

Some of the great aces who have appeared on baseball's Hall of Fame ballot over the years have also fallen off the ballot long before they deserved -- even after a single year. These are the best of those one-and-done pitchers.

Players eligible for election to the Hall need 75% of votes from the Baseball Writers' Association of America to be enshrined in Cooperstown; they only need 5% to reserve a spot on the ballot for the following year. But not all candidates hit that mark, and many have dropped off the ballot after only one year. In 2024, that happened to 247-game winner Bartolo Colon. It will happen to many more will in the future.

Here are five of the best pitchers who, since the rule's institution in 1979, surprisingly didn't get the 5% they needed to remain on the ballot for a second year, even though they should have, because they compare favorably to others who did make it to the Hall.

Kevin Brown, RHP, 1986-2005
Career stats: 211-144, 3.28 ERA, 3,256 1/3 IP, 2,397 K, 17 SHO, 67.8 WAR (Baseball Reference)
HOF voting: 2.1% of ballots in 2011

At his peak, Brown was one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. In a five-year run from 1996-2000, he had a 2.51 ERA, averaged 242 innings and 212 strikeouts a season and threw 10 shutouts. He led the league in ERA and WHIP twice -- including a Major League-best 1.89 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 1996 -- finished in the top six of Cy Young voting four times, threw a no-hitter and helped the Marlins win their first World Series in 1997.

Among starting pitchers, Brown's 2.51 ERA and 36.7 Wins Above Replacement across those five seasons were second only to Pedro Martinez. He didn't hit the 300-win or 3,000-strikeout milestones, but Brown's traditional stats are more than respectable, as is his career WAR of nearly 70.

Compares favorably to: John Smoltz. Smoltz had the saves (154) and the strikeouts (3,084), but Brown's WAR is right in line with Smoltz's (69), and his best seasons stack up well. Brown had two seasons with a higher WAR than Smoltz's best season (8.6 in 1998 and 7.9 in '96, while Smoltz's high was 7.4 in '96). Brown had over six WAR five times; Smoltz did only once. In Brown's five best years, he totaled 36.7 WAR; Smoltz totaled 28.5.

David Cone, RHP, 1986-2003
Stats: 194-126, 3.46 ERA, 2,898 2/3 IP, 2,668 K, 22 SHO, 62.3 WAR
HOF voting: 3.9% in 2009

Cone, like Brown, didn't collect all the wins and strikeouts of some other Hall of Famers. But in his best years, he too was matched by few other pitchers. Between 1988 and '99, Cone was an All-Star five times, won 20 games twice, led the Majors in strikeouts twice and, most importantly, won the AL Cy Young Award in 1994.

Only Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux had a higher WAR than Cone's 59.8 in that 12-year span, and only Randy Johnson and Clemens had more strikeouts than Cone's 2,331. Cone also threw a perfect game on July 18, 1999, and won five World Series, with a 2.12 ERA in six appearances in the Fall Classic.

Compares favorably to: Whitey Ford. Ford and Cone were each part of Yankee dynasties, and Ford won six championships with New York to Cone's four (Cone won once with the Blue Jays). But Cone's advanced stats give him a leg up. Cone's 62.3 WAR beats Ford's 57, and his best years were better as well. Cone had two seven-WAR seasons, a mark Ford never reached. And Cone's five-year peak WAR of 33.3 is well more than Ford's 25.6.

Bret Saberhagen, RHP, 1984-2001
Stats: 167-117, 3.34 ERA, 2,562 2/3 IP, 1,715 K, 16 SHO, 58.9 WAR
HOF voting: 1.3% in 2007

Saberhagen burst onto the scene as a 21-year-old with the Royals in 1985, winning the AL Cy Young in his first full season as a starter and leading Kansas City to a world championship. In the World Series, Saberhagen threw two complete-game gems, including a shutout in Game 7. Four years later, he won the Cy Young again. He's one of only 21 pitchers to win multiple Cy Youngs.

That second Cy Young season, his best statistically, Saberhagen led the Majors in wins (going 23-6), ERA (2.16), WHIP (0.96), innings (262 1/3), complete games (12) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.49). He was also a three-time All-Star, and a Gold Glove winner, and he finished in the top 10 of MVP voting in both of his Cy Young seasons.

Compares favorably to: Catfish Hunter. Hunter, who also started his career in Kansas City (but with the then-Kansas City A's), had an excellent peak run from 1972-75, winning a Cy Young and finishing in the top four of voting all four years. But so did Saberhagen -- he collected 35.4 WAR over his best five years, including his two Cy Young seasons, compared to Hunter's 28 WAR in his top five. Saberhagen also has a 20-plus career WAR advantage over Hunter's 36.6.

Dwight Gooden, RHP, 1984-2000
Stats: 194-112, 3.51 ERA, 2,800 2/3 IP, 2,293 K, 24 SHO, 52.9 WAR
HOF voting: 3.3% in 2006

If Gooden's off-the-field issues hadn't derailed his career, he might have been a surefire Hall of Famer. He won the National League Rookie of the Year Award in 1984, the Cy Young Award in '85 and the World Series in '86 -- all before he turned 22 years old. The electric right-hander was at the heart of the '86 Mets team that took New York City by storm, and Doc's Cy Young season was one of the best in MLB history.

Gooden's 13.3 WAR in 1985 is the fourth-highest by any player in baseball's modern era -- behind only Walter Johnson's 1912 and '13 seasons, and Babe Ruth's 1923. Gooden went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA, 16 complete games, eight shutouts and 268 strikeouts. He led the Majors in wins, ERA and strikeouts -- earning pitching's Triple Crown -- as well as complete games and innings pitched. Gooden also was a four-time All-Star, and he pitched a no-hitter in 1996.

Compares favorably to: Dizzy Dean. Dean, like Gooden, is known for his best year. In 1934, he won the MVP Award after going 30-7, becoming the only NL pitcher to ever win 30 games in the live-ball era. But as good as Dean was that season, Gooden was better in '85. By WAR, it is the best pitching season of the live-ball era (since 1920), nearly four WAR better than Dean's MVP campaign. And Gooden should have been MVP -- he was over five WAR better than the winner, Willie McGee. Gooden also edges Dean in career WAR, 52.9 to 46.2.

Frank Tanana, LHP, 1973-93
Stats: 240-236, 3.66 ERA, 4,188 1/3 IP, 2,773 K, 34 SHO, 57.1 WAR
HOF voting: 0% in 1999

Tanana is a testament to how a player can reinvent himself. In his early days with the Angels, Tanana dominated with a 100 mph fastball. George Brett, in a 2015 interview with the Albany Times Union, said that of the pitchers he faced earlier in his career, "The best guy with the best stuff was Frank Tanana." From 1975-77, starting at age 21, Tanana went 50-28 with a 2.53 ERA and averaged 262 innings and 245 strikeouts a season, twice finishing in the top five of Cy Young voting. He led the AL with 269 strikeouts in '75 and had an AL-best 2.54 ERA and Major League-best seven shutouts in '77.

But soon after, arm injuries sapped his fastball velocity and forced Tanana to develop an offspeed-heavy repertoire. Even so, topping out in the 80s, the left-hander went on to pitch 21 big league seasons, accumulating 240 wins and 2,773 strikeouts -- fifth-most of any non-Hall of Famer (not counting active pitchers) -- with a 3.66 career ERA. But when Tanana's name went onto the Hall of Fame ballot in 1999, the three-time All-Star didn't receive a single vote.

Compares favorably to: Early Wynn. Wynn and Tanana both pitched long careers, each throwing more than 4,000 innings over two-plus decades. Wynn ended up with exactly 300 wins, a number that likely got him into the Hall of Fame, but Tanana's career 57.1 WAR as a pitcher tops Wynn's 51.6, and each of Tanana's three best seasons (8.3, 7.5, 7.4 WAR) was better respectively than each of Wynn's (7.8, 6.1, 5.5).