It's gonna be Maeda: Starter helps Tigers open month with win

May 1st, 2024

DETROIT -- The Tigers finished April with 17 wins on the season, their most before May since 1984, despite an up-and-down opening month from their veteran starter. But Wednesday turned out to be a perfect afternoon to flip the calendar to May-eda.

With six innings of one-run ball and five strikeouts, Kenta Maeda not only pitched the Tigers to a winning series and homestand with a 4-1 victory over the Cardinals, he earned his first win as a Tiger and continued his career trend of some of his best pitching in May, a stark contrast to several years of April struggles.

Maeda finished April with an 0-1 record and 5.96 ERA in five March and April starts this season, and an 11-14 record with a 4.93 ERA in 36 career outings in March and April, by far his highest ERA of any month. Wednesday’s win improved Maeda to 11-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 24 career May starts, including six victories since his last May loss in 2018.

Maeda can’t pinpoint a specific reason behind the difference.

“That's a good question,” Maeda said through translator Dai Sekizaki when asked after the game. “I've never really thought about it. I don't think I really have an answer for you.”

Maeda is admittedly not a fan of pitching in cold weather, so some of the difference is understandable. A rough first month back from Tommy John surgery last year with the Twins exacerbated the difference.

This year, Maeda seemingly had been searching for feel on his pitches since Spring Training, and it reflected with seven home runs allowed before Wednesday’s game.

“Part of it, I think, is real,” manager A.J. Hinch said. “Listen, these guys have track records. I know cold weather is not fun to pitch in, but he doesn’t want to make excuses. But if you see somebody who does something over a decade, it’s going to get your attention.”

It’s real enough that when Monday’s rainout pushed Maeda’s start back from April 29, there was some kidding about the change of calendar.

“What I know about Kenta so far is when he catches that rhythm, he catches his delivery and he starts to repeat things, he can disrupt timing as good as anybody,” Hinch said.

Five scoreless innings with five strikeouts last week against Tampa Bay represented a big step in the right direction. On Thursday, he took a warm, sunny afternoon in Detroit and flashed midseason form, playing sliders off of splitters and keeping Cardinals hitters off balance. Willson Contreras’ 433-foot drive to center field off a hanging slider was St. Louis’ only extra-base hit of the day.

Still, Maeda also enjoyed some of the good fortunes of a new month, getting outs on hard contact. Nolan Gorman flied out to the left-field warning track in the third inning, then hit a sharp line drive to first baseman Spencer Torkelson for a double play to end the top of the fifth. A strikeout-throwout double play ended the day for Maeda, whose 91.6 mile per hour fastball past Contreras was tied for his hardest pitch of the outing.

“Probably his best fastball, both location and velo today, which coincides with May 1,” Hinch said.

In fairness to Maeda, the 91.6 mph fastball also tied his highest velocity of the season -- from April 13, when he was facing his former team, the Twins, at Comerica Park.

Said Maeda: “I think it’s everything. It’s the hitters, the big moment, and I put a little extra [on it].”

More than velocity, metrics suggest a difference in Maeda’s pitches once he settles into a season and gets out of chilly weather. In 2021 in Minnesota, Maeda posted a 6.17 ERA in his opening month. His primary pitch that month, his slider, was hit for a .364 average and 90 mph average exit velocity. Those numbers dropped to .200 and 82.2 in May. His four-seam fastball went from a show-me pitch in April (.400 average, 96.1 mph average exit velocity) to more usable in May (.250, despite a 96.5 average exit velo). His 2019 season, his final year as a Dodger, had similar trends.

Maeda’s slider was sharp Wednesday, drawing three swings and misses and four called strikes. His splitter drew four more whiffs.

More good news for Maeda? He gets even better in June, with a 3.14 ERA in 25 career games despite an 8-8 record. But let’s enjoy May first.