Polanco's injury an omen for struggling Twins' bats

Hitting coach Popkins says two-strike approach among Minnesota's main offensive issues

June 8th, 2023

ST. PETERSBURG -- Here’s how things are going for the Twins: They strung together three well-hit balls in the first inning for the kind of sustained rally they haven’t seen in many days -- but Jorge Polanco’s 107.8 mph line drive up the middle, destined for the outfield turf, caromed first off the pitcher, then the second-base umpire to stay in the infield for a force out.

The Twins lost the momentum of that potential rally, lost Polanco to a day-to-day injury on that very play and, hours later, lost the game.

It’s not that Minnesota was run out of Tropicana Field by the MLB-best Rays in Thursday afternoon's 4-2 loss, which extended the Twins’ losing streak to a season-long five games. But close losses have piled up as the result of the offense’s nadir, which continued with a sixth straight game in which they scored two or fewer runs.

“As soon as you start to panic, as soon as you start to doubt yourself, doubt the guys around you, that’s when you don't come out of those trenches,” catcher said.

The Twins have scored just seven runs across their past six games, their lowest total in any six-game stretch since August 2011. Before that, every such instance had come in 1982 or earlier.

Hitting coach David Popkins has certainly felt the pressure from this recent stretch, and he described the Twins as having gotten to the point where they adjusted their plan over the past two days to address the record pace of strikeouts. And indeed, in those two games, the strikeout total has decreased and they’ve contributed as much -- if not more -- hard contact than the Rays.

But expected stats don’t win games. So Popkins also knows that doesn’t mean much until the results on the field do change.

“Regardless of the expected number or walks or whatever, it doesn’t matter, because runs aren’t crossing the plate,” Popkins said. “So we have to find a way to make that happen.”

Popkins does feel like the Twins are doing some things well. For instance, he points out that when they’re in hitters’ counts or have runners in scoring position, they have among the best expected numbers in the league, leading to a .941 OPS when ahead in the count and an .825 OPS with runners in scoring position.

But there is a glaring need for improvement in one key area.

“Our glaring weakness is with two strikes,” Popkins said. “That’s something we need to get better on. I take full responsibility for that. We’ve got to better prepare and execute in those situations.”

Unsurprisingly, the Twins -- who lead MLB in whiff rate -- also lead MLB in whiff rate with two strikes, with their 29.3% mark well above the league average of 25.1%. They’re really starting to emphasize putting the ball in play in those situations.

“We potentially have gone up with a driver a little too much, instead of just picking up your single, moving the ball forward,” Popkins said. “That’s what we’ve talked about, especially as of late.”

But part of it, too, is that the Twins are trying to avoid getting to those two-strike counts in the first place. A team that will swing and miss as much as Minnesota will naturally get deeper in counts, which has benefited the club in a sense with the fifth-best walk rate in the Majors -- but also leads to those two-strike situations.

Part of lowering the strikeout total, too, is in trading off some of those walks for earlier contact -- an area in which the Twins had been successful but allowed to get away from them.

“Early in the year, I feel like we were a very aggressive team,” said , who was off on Thursday. “We were striking out a little bit, and then we kind of talked about it. And now, we overreact and are not swinging in the zone.”

“Hey, it’s OK to go up there 0-0 and just shoot the ball the other way,” Popkins said. “You don’t always have to wait until you’re behind or even kind of take what the game gives you.”

The Twins are not panicking yet, especially as they see some underlying improvement -- but the urgency has certainly ramped up as the team has dipped below .500 (31-32) and the close losses in seemingly winnable games continue.