A way-too-early attempt at predicting 2026 award winners

Oh look, the guy who didn’t pick Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani to win MVP honors in 2025 is back with more awards predictions. This ought to go well.

Hey, I could have used this space one year ago to predict repeats in those races, as well as the AL Cy Young with Tarik Skubal and both Manager of the Year slots with Pat Murphy and Stephen Vogt. I could have also gone with preseason favorite Paul Skenes for the NL Cy Young.

But that would have been one boring baseball column.

Nope, at the risk of being rendered dumb again -- especially in an MVP realm currently dominated by all-time talents -- I’m sticking with my usual formula of using this space to come up with plausible award winners for next season while veering away from repeats and otherwise obvious favorites. It’s a task made even more difficult by all the moving parts of the offseason and not knowing what developments await us in Spring Training.

These are risks I embrace for you, dear reader, at the start of a new calendar year. Because if I’m going to be wrong, well, at least I’ll be wrong even earlier than everyone else.

So here we go with my picks for the Baseball Writers’ Association of America honors in 2026.

AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP: Julio Rodríguez, Mariners
It bothers me that I didn’t pick Cal Raleigh here last year, even though he didn’t win. (I still think he should have won.) Raleigh had been top 10 in FanGraphs WAR in 2024, so it was plausible. But catcher MVPs are rare. And after the wear and tear of his epic offensive year and deep postseason run, I’m loath to pick Raleigh now. His 2025 just feels unrepeatable (though I’d love to be proven wrong).

Instead, I’m going with Raleigh’s teammate.

Julio, Julio, wherefore art thou, Julio? Are you ready for your close-up? Are you willing to meet the moment in your age-25 season and cement the M’s as the AL West’s team to beat? Are you able to avoid the sluggish starts of seasons past and be something other than merely a second-half sensation?

I think you are, Julio. You reduced your strikeout percentage last season, your bat speed is off the charts, your defense and speed are appreciated assets, and the passion and the pain of your first extended October run have, I’m sure, instilled a hunger to get back and to do more. You have all the tools to be an MVP.

Or at least, to finish second to Judge.

NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP: Juan Soto, Mets
I’m following my own (admittedly unnecessary) rule in not picking Ohtani here, but I’m also in dire need of a W. So I’ll go with probably the next-most obvious pick in Soto.

It feels like this is the 10th time I’ve picked Soto to win an MVP, which is wild, given that he’s only played eight seasons. It’s bound to happen eventually, right?

Were the Mets a mess last season? Yes. Was it Soto’s fault? Well, he could have hustled to first a few more times, but the answer is no. The man was the third player ever and the first this century with a 40-homer, 100-RBI, 100-walk, 100-run, 30-steal season. His defense will continue to hinder his case, but there’s no reason to think this 27-year-old at the peak of his patience/power prowess can’t win the MVP.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG: Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
Picking Skubal to win here again might actually be the bold play, considering Hall of Famers Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux are the only pitchers to win three straight Cy Youngs. But that would go against my policy, and, anyway, we can’t even be totally certain Skubal is in the AL in 2026.

So again, give me a 2025 finalist who seems destined to win one of these. That’s Crochet, who was the runner-up to Skubal in a race that honestly could have been a lot closer. Crochet threw 10 more innings than Skubal, and Baseball Prospectus’ WAR model, which considers opponent quality, actually had Crochet at 7.0 vs. Skubal’s 5.9 mark.

While this isn’t an inventive pick, it’s a sensible one now that Crochet is fully stretched out to a true ace’s workload and in full command of his wipeout stuff. When you strike out roughly one-third of opposing batters as a matter of routine, you’re going to find yourself in the Cy Young conversation.

I whiff a lot on these picks, so it stands to reason that I should go with the guy who is the best at whiffing people to help my chances.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers
There’s probably no stopping Skenes, whose 1.96 ERA from 2024-25 was the best in MLB … by 34 points!

But fake rules are fake rules. So let’s go with the reigning World Series MVP, who might be a risky pick after logging 17 2/3 inning in the span of a week in that Series. The Dodgers are also deep enough in the rotation (if healthy) to play the load management game, and that might leave Yamamoto short on Cy Young-caliber innings.

But this guy’s preparation is second to none, and the more comfortable he’s gotten in MLB, the better the results have been. His 2.74 expected ERA last season trailed only that of Skenes (2.63) and Skubal (2.71), so he was definitely in Cy company.

AMERICAN LEAGUE RELIEF PITCHER OF THE YEAR: Cade Smith, Guardians
The questions on everybody’s lips as we embark upon 2026: Who will be the winners of the first-ever BBWAA Relief Pitcher of the Year Awards? Will they be the same as the winners of the already existent Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards? And if not, will the wrong guys accidentally show up to the BBWAA dinner out of confusion?

Only time will tell. For now, with Cleveland going back to Smith in the ninth after he took over the closing role from Emmanuel Clase in 2025, he’s my pick. After all, Smith has spent his first two Major League seasons holding opponents to a .558 OPS – eighth-best among MLB relievers with at least 100 innings in that span. He’s a big guy (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) with big stuff and big extension, and so far he’s been unflappable.

NATIONAL LEAGUE RELIEF PITCHER OF THE YEAR: Mason Miller, Padres
That OPS stat I cited for Smith? Mason is first in that span, at .494. The Padres sure gave up a lot to get him last summer, and either a lot will be asked of him on what will be a revamped San Diego pitching staff or a lot will be received for him in a trade (if the latter, hopefully it’s to an NL team so as not to screw up this prediction).

In any event, because he has yet to win MLB’s version of the Reliever of the Year honor, I’m allowed to take the relatively safe route in selecting Miller here.

AMERICAN LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers
Trey Yesavage will of course be a popular pick after what he and his savage splitter did in the postseason. So he’s off the table for me, unfortunately.

Instead, I’ll go with the guy who has maybe the best hit tools in the Minors right now. McGonigle’s approach and bat speed are impressive, and he slashed .305/.408/.583 with 46 strikeouts against 59 walks in 88 games across three levels in 2025. He might not crack the Tigers’ Opening Day squad at shortstop like some fans will hope, but I think there will be ample opportunity for him in 2026.

NATIONAL LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals
Nolan McLean was an insta-ace for the Mets down the stretch last season and, therefore, the likely favorite in the NL.

As much as I’d love to go with that, let’s pivot to a Cardinals kid with clear opportunity to meaningfully impact what is bound to be a new-look roster. Brendan Donovan is still with the Cards as I type this, but I would expect that to change and Wetherholt’s above-average offensive game to earn him ample playing time in the infield.

AMERICAN LEAGUE MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Craig Albernaz, Orioles
Though 2025 gave us rare repeats for this prize, no way it happens again, right?!

Nah, we’ll go back to the tradition of giving it to a skipper who leads a squad from the abyss to October. That’ll be Albernaz, a gifted dugout mind who was instrumental in helping the Guardians’ Stephen Vogt win this award in consecutive seasons. It only stands to reason that Vogt will now hand it off to his friend and former comrade, who is taking over a Baltimore squad that had too much talent to be as big a dud as it was in 2025, even before the Pete Alonso deal. The O’s seem somewhat allergic to acquiring pitching, but I suspect they’ll remedy that. They won’t be AL East favorites, but they’ll have a reasonable shot at reaching the postseason, so they’re right in the sweet spot for this award.

NATIONAL LEAGUE MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Don Kelly, Pirates
Let’s finish this off with a wild one. Go-big-or-go-home kinda stuff.

The Pirates have a good pitching staff fronted by Skenes, who is probably destined for a second Cy now that I picked someone else. So that’s a good start. What they couldn’t do in 2025 (and plenty of other years) is hit. They’ve been looking to change that this winter, and Kelly is a native Pittsburghian who will emerge as one of the great stories of the 2026 season in guiding the Buccos back to October (via a Wild Card spot, let’s not get too crazy) for the first time in more than a decade.

Don’t you just love a happy ending? Me too. Even if it’s incorrect!