How the division races have changed since the All-Star break

You know what they say: A division isn’t won in April. Sure, sometimes the team atop the standings in April does end up capturing the division crown, but a lot can change over the course of a baseball season -- and even over the course of the final two months.

With that in mind, and with help from FanGraphs’ division title odds, here’s a look at how each division race has changed since the All-Star break.

Note: All odds below are entering Saturday.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

Biggest riser: Rays, +29.5 (55.9% to 85.4%)
Biggest faller: Yankees, -29.2 (41.4% to 12.2%)

Before the break: The Yankees got off to a strong start this season, and by the end of April, New York had a slight lead over the Rays atop the AL East standings. But Tampa Bay began heating up in May, overtaking the Yanks to build their own lead atop the division, which sat at three games at the All-Star break.

Since the break: The Rays just keep on rolling, and with the help of Trade Deadline acquisitions such Liam Hicks and Tyler Wells, they’ve quietly become the club with the AL's best record, at 74-48. Tampa Bay has won 18 of its past 24 games to open up a 6 1/2-game cushion in the division. The Yankees, meanwhile, continue to tread water after the anchor of their lineup, Aaron Judge, went on the injured list at the beginning of June -- New York has gone 32-32 since then.

AL CENTRAL

Biggest riser: White Sox, +22.3 (23.7% to 46.0%)
Biggest faller: Guardians, -28.8 (44.0% to 15.2%)

Before the break: The White Sox have been baseball’s biggest surprise in 2026. The South Siders really took off in May, winning 15 of 21 from May 9 through the end of the month. That pulled them to within one game of the division-leading Guardians. By June 10, Chicago had surpassed Cleveland, and from there until the All-Star break, the clubs traded places until they finished tied atop the division at the end of the first half.

Since the break: While the White Sox have played just about .500 baseball so far in the second half, the Guardians have fallen on hard times, losing 18 of 27 since the All-Star break. The result is a 4 1/2-game cushion atop the division standings for Chicago -- but that advantage is over the Tigers, whereas Cleveland has slumped to fourth place.

AL WEST

Biggest riser: Astros, +53.8 (10.0% to 63.8%)
Biggest faller: Mariners, -31.9 (49.2% % to 17.3%)

Before the break: The Rangers found themselves in first place in the AL West at the All-Star break despite being just two games above .500, at 49-47. The Mariners and Astros, each with records below .500 through the first half, were nonetheless each within three games of Texas.

Since the break: Just when many thought Houston’s run of dominance over the past decade might be coming to an end, the Astros caught fire in late July, winning 13 of 16 to leapfrog Texas and Seattle and take hold of the top spot in the division. Their 53.8-point jump in odds to win their division is the largest in the Majors since the break.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Biggest riser: Braves, +37.7 (56.9% to 94.6%)
Biggest faller: Phillies, -33.0 (38.4% to 5.4%)

Before the break: The Braves jumped out to a big lead in the NL East, finding themselves nine games up on the Phillies at the start of June. But then Philadelphia started playing better baseball while Atlanta came back down to Earth a bit. By the All-Star break, the Braves’ division lead had dwindled to just two games.

Since the break: Atlanta has regained that huge division lead, sitting 7 1/2 games ahead of the Phillies thanks to winning 18 of 28 since the break while Philadelphia has gone 12-15. The Phils have seen the biggest drop in odds to win their division of any club since the All-Star break.

NL CENTRAL

Biggest riser: Cubs, +12.8 (15.0% to 27.8%)
Biggest faller: Brewers, -7.2 (79.4% to 72.2%)

Before the break: The Brewers, as they tend to do, grabbed first place in the NL Central and they haven’t lost their grip. The Cubs were perched atop the division for a bit, but Milwaukee eclipsed Chicago in mid-May and hasn’t looked back. At the All-Star break, the Crew had a five-game lead on the North Siders.

Since the break: Milwaukee hasn’t lost its grip on the top spot in the NL Central, but with as well as the Cubs have played since the break, that grip has loosened a bit. The clubs are currently separated by four games, with Chicago winning 10 of 14 so far this month. NL MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to lead the lineup, and Alex Bregman, who launched three homers and drove in seven runs against the Nationals last Wednesday, has had a strong August.

NL WEST

Biggest riser: Padres, +0.3 (0.0% to 0.3%)
Biggest faller: Dodgers, -0.2 (99.8% to 99.6%)

Before the break: The Dodgers, seeking a third consecutive World Series title, built a solid lead in the NL West early on this season. While they were neck-and-neck with the Padres atop the division at the end of April, the lead grew to 5 1/2 games by the end of May. The Padres stagnated and were surpassed by the D-backs by the All-Star break, and L.A.’s lead over Arizona was 11 1/2 games.

Since the break: The Padres have gotten hot and tied the D-backs for second place while the Dodgers went uncharacteristically cold. San Diego has won 10 of 14 games in August and Los Angeles dropped five straight to open the month. Still, all of that has only gotten the Padres to within eight of the two-time defending World Series champions.