Who wins each Wild Card Series? MLB.com experts weigh in

It’s time. The postseason has arrived and all four Wild Card Series open up on Tuesday as eight of the 12 playoff entrants vying for a World Series title begin their October quest in earnest.

It all begins at 2 p.m. ET, when the Phillies and Braves open up their National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on NBC/Peacock. The White Sox and Astros open the American League side of the ledger in Houston at 5 p.m. ET on Peacock/NBCSN. At 8 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock, the historic rivalry between the Red Sox and Yankees renews at Yankee Stadium. And at 10 p.m. ET, the Cubs face off against the Padres at Petco Park on Peacock/NBCSN.

How will each series play out, and which teams will move on to the Division Series? We asked several MLB.com experts to weigh in, and here are the results:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

White Sox (6) at Astros (3)

The pick: Astros

This one was close. Our experts have Houston emerging victorious, but this matchup pits a group with decorated veteran experience against one with youthful -- and slugging -- exuberance.

One of the central differences here is that the White Sox are in the playoffs for the first time in five years, whereas the Astros have reached the postseason in nine of the past 10 years and have won a pair of World Series titles. Houston’s lineup is headlined by household names like AL MVP frontrunner Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, one of the most successful hitters in postseason history.

On the other hand, Houston snuck into the playoffs at the last minute and is the first team in postseason history to not finish above .500 and yet still secure a berth. Chicago, meanwhile, is enjoying the feeling of going from a record 121 losses two years ago to a playoff appearance in 2026. The South Siders also feature big power in the middle of the lineup, led by Munetaka Murakami and Miguel Vargas.

In the end, the nod goes to the club that’s been there and done that … a lot.

• “Houston's veteran core outlasts Chicago’s upstart offense in a series that goes to a rubber match.” -- Anthony Castrovince, senior national reporter

• “The Astros have been here before, and that experience -- plus home-field advantage -- will be enough to advance.” -- Mark Feinsand, senior national reporter

• “No team hit more home runs this year than the Astros (226), who also boast Yordan Alvarez, a lockdown closer (Josh Hader) and plenty of postseason pedigree.” -- Jared Greenspan, writer/researcher

The dissenting view

“The Astros have so much more postseason experience and the bigger names (Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña), but when there's no clear favorite, go with the hungry young team that has enough talent and vibes to do damage and surprise.” -- Jason Catania, supervising editor -- breaking news

Red Sox (5) at Yankees (4)

The pick: Yankees

Two words illustrate the difference here: starting pitching.

The big question surrounding the Yankees is whether three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge, the anchor of a lineup that often tends to rise and fall with the superstar slugger, will play after going back on the injured list earlier this month due to a right calf strain. But a major advantage New York has in this showdown with its biggest rival -- at least on paper -- is the starting rotation.

Led by AL Cy Young Award frontrunner Cam Schlittler, along with star veteran hurlers Max Fried and Gerrit Cole, the Yanks clearly have the upper hand when it comes to who will start on the mound. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have struggled at the plate this month, scoring an MLB-low 71 runs in September.

• “Starting pitching. Starting pitching. Starting pitching. Cam Schlittler is the type of guy that will bear down and be a dominant force in the playoffs.” -- Noah Yingling, reporter/producer

• “Whether Aaron Judge plays or not, the Yankees are absolutely loaded on the mound, though Boston is no slouch there either. Still, in a short series, I like the team with Schlittler and Fried.” -- Bryan Horowitz, supervising editor -- content operations

• “Since Boston's magical run ended on Aug. 7, they're 23-24. That's two months of unimpressive ball, and they had September's lowest-scoring offense.” -- Mike Petriello, director of stats and research

The dissenting view

“The Yankees' lineup is already vulnerable against left-handed pitching, which the Red Sox are loaded with, and now Aaron Judge's health is back in question, too.” -- Ryan Kelapire, senior editor

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Phillies (6) at Braves (3)

The pick: Braves

A deeper lineup in Atlanta and a Phillies starting rotation with durability concerns made the difference among our experts in their views on this series.

The Braves’ offense is stacked with big names and extensive postseason experience. Ronald Acuña Jr. is a former MVP and a five-time All-Star. Matt Olson produced his best power output since 2023, belting 41 homers and slugging .502. Fresh off winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award in ’25, Drake Baldwin launched 25 homers and cemented his place as one of the game’s best catchers. And Michael Harris II delivered a bounce-back performance at the plate after a pair of mediocre campaigns.

Meanwhile, the Phillies had to pitch star right-hander Zack Wheeler on Sunday to help them punch their ticket to the playoffs on the final day of the regular season, and they’ve lined up the left-handed duo of Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez for Game 1 and Game 2.

But with it being unclear whether Wheeler will appear on short rest, along with Luzardo having thrown only four pitches in a big league game since being sidelined with left shoulder inflammation, whether Philadelphia will get what it’s accustomed to out of its big three is questionable.

• “Having to use Zack Wheeler on Sunday to get into the playoffs will hurt the Phillies, while the Braves are well rested and would love some revenge for 2022 and 2023.” -- Theo DeRosa, writer/researcher
• “The Phillies needed Game 162 to secure their spot in the postseason, and had to use their top four starters to get there (one coming off the IL to pitch an inning on the last day). They don't look like a team ready to make a deep run ... which probably means they'll end up in the NLCS.” -- Dan Cichalski, senior manager -- content operations
• “The Phillies stumbling into the postseason will get a lot of the attention, but the Braves are just a better team. Home-field advantage plays a big role here.” -- Michael Avallone, content producer -- MiLB

The dissenting view

“Even on short rest, the Phillies’ starting pitching is tough." -- Christina DeNicola, Marlins beat reporter

Cubs (5) at Padres (4)

The pick: Padres

This one came down to two factors: a lockdown bullpen and home-field advantage for San Diego.

With the Mason Miller-led Padres relief corps, and the outsized role a bullpen can play in the postseason, a game can get late early for the opposition. Petco Park can get loud early for San Diego, a club that won 51 of its 81 home games this season. The Padres have also been playing good baseball at the right time -- they won 18 of their final 22 games to surge into the top Wild Card position in the NL.

On the other side, the Cubs are led by the NL MVP frontrunner Pete Crow-Armstrong. PCA is a singular force who is capable of taking over a game with his incredible power-speed combo. Our experts see shutting down PCA as a huge key to this series. The Cubs did, however, score the most runs in the Majors this season (850) and if Alex Bregman continues to swing a hot bat, he could also play a major role in helping Chicago advance.

• “The Padres bullpen was built for a three-game Wild Card Series at home.” -- AJ Cassavell, senior club reporter covering the Padres
• “Baseball's hottest team down the stretch can shorten every game with its superb bullpen.” -- Brian Murphy, reporter -- research and breaking news
• “Pete Crow-Armstrong is a force of nature, but the Padres are firing on all cylinders and look unstoppable right now, especially with their spectacular bullpen shortening games.” -- David Venn, senior national reporter

The dissenting view

“Mason Miller was uncharacteristically wobbly in the final couple weeks of the regular season, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will continue his MVP run with a big series.” -- Tom Vourtsis, supervising editor -- content operations