How many 2025 playoff teams will return to October? Let’s rank their chances

Seven of the 12 teams that reached the playoffs in 2025 also made it in 2024: the Yankees, Guardians, Tigers, Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers and Padres. That’s just more than half, which is actually a little high. Six teams repeated in 2024 after six repeated in 2023.

That’s to say: It’s harder to make the playoffs for two straight years than you might think.

So we have to ask: Who is going to return this year? With the season approaching the first-third marker, we thought we’d take a look at the 12 teams who made it last year and rank them by the likelihood of them returning in 2026.

1. Dodgers

Entering Tuesday, the Dodgers were 42-24, three games ahead of where they were through 66 games in 2025, when they were clinging to a one-game lead over the Padres and a two-game lead over the Giants. It’s going better in 2026, even outside of the record. The Dodgers entered Tuesday with a 7 1/2-game lead on both the Diamondbacks and Padres in the NL West -- and much farther ahead of the reeling Giants and Rockies. The Dodgers have mastered the art of cruising through the regular season and making sure they’re at their best and healthy for the postseason. That’s clearly happening again in 2026. See you in October.

2. Mariners

It took the consensus offseason American League favorites a little bit longer to get going this year than they might have hoped, and they certainly aren’t getting the historic season from Cal Raleigh that they did last year. But circumstances have still set up splendidly for them. They’ve played much better over the last month, pulling back into first place, and it doesn’t look like anyone else in the division is in position to make any sort of serious run at them. They’re starting to round into shape, and before long, they’ll get Raleigh back. It honestly would not be particularly surprising to see them end the season with the widest division lead in the sport.

3. Brewers

Yeah, we all dumbly underrated the Brewers again. The team that has won the last three NL Central titles (and four of the last five) was once again dismissed as the favorite heading into the year. Not only are they the class of the division once again, but they also look like they’re going to keep getting better. The emergent dominance of Jacob Misiorowski and the acquisition of Kyle Harrison have given them a 1-2 punch atop the rotation that's among the best in baseball, Brice Turang is going to get MVP votes and Jackson Chourio seems to be make a different improvement every time you see him. The NL Central is a lot better than anyone thought it would be. But the Brewers are still the best team in it.

4. Guardians

The Guardians, famously, required a record-setting comeback -- culminating with a win on the last day of the season -- to make it to the playoffs last year. It shouldn’t be nearly as stressful this time. The surprising White Sox are still hanging around in the AL Central, but no one else in this division is even within shouting distance of .500. If the White Sox can’t keep this up -- and as fun as they have been, that might be asking a lot -- it should be smooth sailing for the Guardians.

5. Yankees

Obviously, losing Aaron Judge for the next month-plus is far from ideal. But the Yankees are well-positioned to weather this just fine. The rotation, save for Max Fried (who is about to start working his way back soon), is healthy and deep, and now the Yankees have more lineup reinforcements than they had the last time Judge missed extended time, including Ben Rice, who has actually put up better numbers so far this year than Judge. Even better, the Yankees began Tuesday with an eight-game cushion in the AL Wild Card race. Passing the Rays in the AL East may be a challenge. But the postseason -- which Judge should be back for -- seems a very safe bet.

6. Phillies

The Phillies made a playoff run the last time they changed managers in-season; it sure looks like they may do that again. Since naming Don Mattingly as the interim manager to replace Rob Thomson, the Phillies are 27-11, the best record in baseball. The rotation is cruising, the veteran bats are holding up and if there are any reinforcements to be made, you can trust the Phillies to make them. It sure looks like they avoided disaster.

7. Cubs

No team has gone through a wilder season so far than the Cubs, who have had two 10-game winning streaks and a 10-game losing streak. They’re not in the midst of a streak right now, but not much is going right. Most of the lineup is in a slump, and their starting pitching has collapsed. Take away Ben Brown, and the Cubs’ starting pitchers had a 7.85 ERA from May 8 through Sunday, leading to an overall 7-20 record during that span. That’s not going to get it done. The Cubs are capable of going another winning streak at any time, of course. But even if they did, how much would you really trust them?

8. Blue Jays

How you feel about the Blue Jays may depend on how much you feel their problems are due to all the injuries they’ve suffered -- they have 13 players on the IL right now -- and how much you think maybe we all get a little over our skis about the Blue Jays in the first place. The good news for Toronto is that Dylan Cease returned Tuesday, and Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber also are on their way back. Plus, the AL Wild Card chase looks like it’s going to remain muddled all year. The bad news is that everyone they’re fighting against feels the same way … and sees the Jays as very, very vulnerable.

9. Padres

It was looking great for the Padres, who actually were in first place in the NL West as recently as May 18. But it has gotten very wobbly since then -- 5-13 entering Tuesday -- leaving the team well behind the Dodgers in the division and right on the Wild Card bubble. The biggest problem has been the offense and, specifically, the high-priced hitters who are supposed to be leading this lineup: Fernando Tatis Jr. (89 OPS+), Xander Bogaerts (86), Jackson Merrill (68) and Manny Machado (64). You’d hope these guys are going to turn things around, but it’s far from a guarantee, especially with Bogaerts and Machado both being 33 years old.

10. Reds

The Reds’ loss to the Cardinals on Saturday dropped them under .500 for the first time since Opening Day, and they followed that up with two more losses on Sunday and Monday, making them 2-9 since May 27. To show you how little breathing room anyone’s going to have in this division this year, it was the first time anyone in the NL Central had gone under .500 since April 14. It’s starting to teeter a bit for the Reds, who are 2-13 against the NL Central and have endured some serious bullpen problems (as evidenced by the loss Saturday). There’s still a lot of talent here, but the team that was 20-11 at the end of April doesn’t look much like this one right now.

11. Red Sox

This is not how this was supposed to go down this year. Check all the those preseason predictions: A lot of people picked the Red Sox! It sure doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. They fired Alex Cora after a 10-17 start, but things haven’t gotten much better under interim skipper Chad Tracy (17-20 entering Tuesday). Considering how strong their division is, the climb back is going to be steep, to say the very least. The Red Sox already made a very difficult decision in response to how the 2026 season has been going. There are likely more of those to come.

12. Tigers

But the Red Sox aren’t in this situation: The Tigers -- who, to remind, haven’t won the AL Central since 2014 -- are in some deep, deep trouble. They’re already a shocking nine games behind the first-place Guardians (down from a high of 11 1/2 games), and their phone is going to be ringing off the hook with Tarik Skubal suitors. The Tigers came within one game of taking out the Mariners in the ALDS last year. That is not happening again.