2nd-half opening series with the biggest playoff implications

The Phillies and Mets kicked off the second half of the season with the lone game on Thursday, but the rest of baseball begins the second-half trek on Friday.

While more than half of the season has been played, so much is yet to be determined in regards to standings, individual achievements and much more. With that in mind, we’re taking a look at the biggest series to begin the second half of the season.

To find the most compelling series, each team must have double-digit playoff odds, according to FanGraphs. From there, it’s a ranking of the series by looking at what’s at stake to factor in not just making the playoffs, but also winning the division and securing a first-round bye for prospective teams.

1. Pirates (40.6%) at Guardians (61.8%)
Plenty will be at stake for both of these clubs in the second half of the season. The 51-46 Guardians are neck-and-neck with the 50-45 White Sox for the AL Central. The 50-47 Pirates are just two games back of a Wild Card spot in the National League. It’s the optimal matchup to highlight for this exercise, as every game will seemingly take on more importance as the year progresses.

Pittsburgh will turn to Jared Jones and 2026 All-Stars Braxton Ashcraft and Paul Skenes on the mound this weekend, while Cleveland will likely use some combination of Parker Messick (also a ‘26 All-Star), Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee.

2. Rays (97.8%) at Red Sox (40.5%)
At 56-38, the Rays boast the top record in the American League and third-best record in baseball behind the Dodgers and Brewers. They’re also engaged in a tight battle for the AL East with the Yankees, as Tampa Bay only holds a three-game lead over New York. As usual, the Rays operate in an interesting space of balancing the long-term and short-term success, so they’ll be a team to monitor at the Deadline.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have been one of baseball’s best teams since starting season 31-45. Since that point, Boston is an MLB-best 15-3 and firmly in the playoff picture at 46-48 -- the Red Sox are half-game back of a Wild Card spot. With the looming (potential) return of young star Roman Anthony later in the season, the Red Sox could make serious noise in the second half.

3. Rangers (61.5%) at Braves (90.8%)
The Braves have cooled off since a hot start, but at 55-40 they’re still one of the best teams in baseball. The larger problem for Atlanta is a Phillies club that was just two games back of the Braves entering the second half of the season. Much like we’ve seen in past years, the Phillies and Braves will probably have an epic battle in the second half.

The Rangers are leading the AL West at 49-47, making them the only team above .500 in the division. Texas has gotten healthier after dealing with a barrage of early-season injuries and given the state of the AL West -- and the AL Wild Card picture -- the Rangers have a real shot at playing October baseball again.

4. Marlins (34.0%) at Brewers (98.2%)
It’s another ho-hum season for the Brewers, who are once again one of baseball’s top clubs and have had several huge developments. Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison have blossomed into one of the most potent 1-2 starters in baseball, while the position-player group has seen Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell emerge as legit everyday players. With a five-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central, the Brewers are primed for another division title.

While we’ve come to expect this from the Brewers, what the Marlins have done has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. An MLB-best 26-11 since June, Miami is firmly in the playoff mix with a 52-45 record -- the Marlins currently hold a one-game lead over the Cardinals for the third Wild Card spot. With huge steps forward from the likes of Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards and Max Meyer, the Marlins have been one of baseball’s most fun clubs.

5. Twins (34.4%) at Cubs (76.8%)
It’s a Midwest battle between a strong Cubs team (54-42 record) and a surprising Twins club (48-49) in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. It’s been much of the same for the Cubs this season, who boast one of the top offenses in baseball and a legitimate MVP candidate in Pete Crow-Armstrong. It’s been a struggle again, though, for Cubs pitchers, who have dealt with both injuries and underperformance.

The Twins are tied with the Mariners for the third Wild Card spot in what is a crowded AL Wild Card contingent. Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan have been awesome, resulting in All-Star selections, while the Twins have received key contributions from the likes of Kody Clemens, Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach and Taj Bradley. Minnesota also isn’t too far off in the AL Central race, so it could be a fascinating second half for the Twins.

6. White Sox (40.2%) at Blue Jays (20.3%)
The White Sox have been a blast to watch, going from a historically bad 2024 campaign to legit playoff contenders in 2026. The South Siders are in a tight battle with Cleveland for the AL Central and have created a fascinating second-half race. The combination of Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery and Davis Martin have helped push the White Sox into a real competitive window.

The Blue Jays have had sluggish follow-up to last year’s AL pennant, with Toronto posting a 45-51 record in the first half. Despite that, the Jays are only 2 1/2 games back of a playoff spot and have had so much go wrong in terms of performance (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s tough season) and injuries (Addison Barger and many of the starting pitchers).

7. Cardinals (31.7%) at D-backs (24.2%)
The Cardinals were one of baseball’s biggest surprises for most of the first half, but cooled down as the All-Star break approached. Still, the fact that the Cards sit at 50-45 and just a game back of an NL Wild Card spot is surprising given the club’s sell-off during the offseason. With a new front office in place and an influx of young players taking steps forward -- like Home Run Derby champ Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt -- the Cards are in a good position.

It’s been something of an odd season for the D-backs, who are 2 1/2 games back in the NL Wild Card spot despite 2025 stars Geraldo Perdomo and Ketel Marte playing well below last season’s levels and a pitching staff that's been hampered by injuries. The NL West is pretty much out of the question with the Dodgers involved, but a Wild Card spot is fully within reach.

8. Orioles (21.1%) at Astros (24.5%)
The Orioles find themselves back in the playoff race after beginning the month of July with a 7-3 stretch. It's surely been a frustrating season in Birdland given the expectations, but there's ample time to turn things around. Entering the second half, the O's are 45-51 but just two games back of an AL Wild Card spot.

At 47-51, the Astros are just three games back in the AL West and 1 1/2 games back of a Wild Card spot. It's hard for one player to carry a team in baseball, but Yordan Alvarez has sure done his best in what could result in his first MVP award.

9. Dodgers (100.0%) at Yankees (97.0%)
It’s an old school rivalry between the Dodgers and Yankees, a heavyweight battle between two of baseball’s top clubs, a repeat of the 2024 World Series and Los Angeles vs. New York. What more can you ask for? There's no denying the drama and excitement surrounding this series in the Bronx, but both teams are essential locks to make the playoffs, especially so for a Dodgers club with an 11 1/2-game lead in the NL West.

Fittingly, Saturday’s game will be nationally televised on FOX (8:08 p.m. ET) and the series finale will be NBC’s Sunday Night Baseball Game (7:20 p.m. ET). While Aaron Judge is still sidelined, this series will still feature the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger, while Cam Schlittler, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Gerrit Cole will likely toe the rubber.