X-factors who can push their teams back to October

Spring Training is here and optimism is plentiful across the league.

Every team enters the year with some hope of being a competitive group, with many clubs looking for deep playoff runs. For last year's playoff teams, the goal is to dethrone the Dodgers and be the last team standing. For more than half of the league, though, the goal is to return to the playoffs after missing out on last year’s postseason. As such, there’s no shortage of key players across the league attempting to right the ship and help their respective clubs play October baseball.

In this exercise, we looked at 10 players on potential playoff teams that were not a part of last year’s tournament. For the sake of keeping this list shorter, these 10 players are on teams that have at least a 20 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to the FanGraphs playoff odds.

Austin Riley, 3B, ATL

From 2021-23, Riley was one of baseball’s best players, slugging the sixth-most home runs (108) of any player, while his 16.1 WAR (per FanGraphs) only trailed eight position players. Not coincidentally, the Braves won a World Series the first year of that stretch and won 101 and 104 games, respectively, in 2022 and ‘23. Since then, Riley has dealt with various issues that limited him to 110 games in 2024 and 102 games last season, while his OPS dipped below .800 in each of those seasons.

It’s unfair to peg Riley as the sole reason why the Braves have struggled in the last two years, but he’s very clearly one of the key players that make Atlanta’s engine run. While the club will look to several players across the roster to bounce back, a vintage Riley season where he crushes 30-plus homers and racks up a five-win season would go a long way in helping the Braves return to the postseason.

Adley Rutschman, C, BAL

Rutschman’s career arc has been confounding. Selected first overall in the 2019 Draft, Rutschman was widely viewed as a generational talent at catcher and he certainly lived up to that hype to begin his career, racking up 11.1 WAR through his first two seasons thanks to all-around excellence. It was more of the same through the first half of 2024, when he was selected to a second straight All-Star Game thanks to 2.7 WAR and 16 homers.

Inexplicably, Rutschman has a .639 OPS and just 1.2 WAR in 148 games since the second half of 2024. Injuries are partially to blame -- he had multiple oblique strains in 2025 -- but that doesn’t fully explain the drop-off from being one of baseball’s top players. For the Orioles to compete in a hyper-competitive AL East, a bounceback from Rutschman would be a huge boost.

Shane McClanahan, LHP, TBR

McClanahan blossomed as one of baseball’s top starters from 2021-23 before injuries ravaged the talented left-hander. Across 404 2/3 innings in his first three seasons, McClanahan had a 3.02 ERA and punched out 456 hitters, while flashing some of the nastiest stuff of any starting pitcher. Then, the injuries: he underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2023 and dealt with nerve issues in his left triceps last March that have kept him off an MLB mound for over two years.

The 28-year-old lefty is healthy this spring and fully prepared to be in the Rays’ rotation on Opening Day. Even if there’s a slower ramp-up or if his innings are limited, a healthy McClanahan pitching at the top of his game could make the Rays a legitimate contender.

Bryce Eldridge, 1B/DH, SF

At 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds, Eldridge looks every bit of the part of a prodigious lefty slugger. The power showed up in a major way after being selected 16th overall in the 2023 Draft, as Eldridge bashed 54 home runs with a .512 SLG in 249 games in the Minors before he was promoted to the Majors late last season. He struggled in a small 10-game sample in the Majors but hopes are high that Eldridge, MLB Pipeline's No. 25 prospect, could be a perennial 30-plus homer threat.

Of course, Eldridge struck out in 27.1 percent of his MiLB plate appearances and his ability to get to that raw power consistently will determine the type of career he has. If Eldridge can keep that figure below 30 percent, that provides ample opportunity for him to connect for upwards of 30 home runs a year. An Eldridge breakout could make the Giants’ offense one of the top units in baseball.

Oneil Cruz, CF, PIT

Few players possess the raw physical tools that Cruz boasts. He owns the two hardest-hit baseballs in the Statcast era, including a 122.9 mph home run last May. His 29.2 feet-per-second sprint speed last season placed him in the 93rd percentile of players. And his 98.2 mph arm strength was tops among all players. Yet, Cruz has been the textbook definition of a league-average player: he owns a career 100 wRC+ (100 is average) with similarly average defensive metrics.

While there’s plenty of value in league-average players, Cruz quite obviously has another gear in him if it comes together. The elevated strikeout rate (career 31.7 percent rate) is the No. 1 culprit and if he can shave that figure down, there’s the baseline for a star player. Coming off a poor 2025 showing (.676 OPS, 1.6 WAR in 135 games), Cruz could be the key player in helping the Pirates return to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

Cole Ragans, LHP, KC

Ragans was a key reason why the Royals grabbed a Wild Card spot in 2024, as the left-hander had a breakout season in which he made his first All-Star Game and finished fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting. Ragans was downright dominant with a 3.14 ERA and 223 strikeouts in 186 1/3 innings, while also throwing six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts in his playoff debut. A left rotator cuff strain and left groin strain limited him to just 61 2/3 innings last season, however.

While Ragans posted a 4.67 ERA in 2025, every other ERA indicator -- whether it was expected ERA (2.67), FIP (2.50) or xFIP (2.45) -- suggested that he was every bit of the ace he was the prior season. Ragans, who already has two Tommy John surgeries under his belt, carries an extensive injury history but if he exceeds 150 innings, he’ll be one of the better starters in baseball and give the Royals a legitimate No. 1 starter.

Sean Manaea, LHP, NYM

Between Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean, the Mets have a formidable 1-2 punch. While there are multiple intriguing options beyond those two, they’ll need a third starter to step up as a legitimate No. 3 starter. In 2024, Manaea certainly was that kind of pitcher, posting career-best figures in ERA (3.47), xERA (3.75) and innings (181 2/3). The veteran left-hander struggled last season with a 5.64 ERA in 60 2/3 innings and didn’t debut until July 13 due to multiple injuries.

The good news is Manaea has been a durable starter throughout his career and under the hood, his numbers weren’t quite that bad last year. The lefty had a career-best 28.5 percent strikeout rate and only walked 4.6 percent of opposing hitters, with an inflated home run rate (1.93 HR/9) being his main issue. If Manaea is closer to his 2024 version, the Mets’ rotation is going to look awfully good.

Evan Carter, CF, TEX

You couldn’t have drawn up a better beginning to a career than when Carter emerged in 2023, when he posted 1.058 OPS in his first 23 games and then ran a .300/.417/.500 slash line in 17 postseason games to help the Rangers secure their first World Series title. That Carter did so as a 21-year-old made him one of the more exciting young players in the sport.

Then came the injuries, which included a stress reaction in his lower back, back spasms, a right quad strain and a right wrist fracture. Those injuries limited him to just 108 games in 2024-25, when Carter posted a .688 OPS with 1.5 WAR. Carter is only 23 years old and has yet to put together a full MLB season. If he stays healthy this year, perhaps it’ll be the full breakout season the Rangers have envisioned since Carter’s electric debut in 2023.

Ryne Nelson, RHP, AZ

Even with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly back in the fold and the expected return of Corbin Burnes later in the season, there are plenty of questions about Arizona’s pitching capabilities. If the three starters mentioned before are healthy and operating near their career norms, the club should be in good shape, but the D-backs surely need another quality starter in that mix. Luckily, Nelson showed that promise last season when he posted a 3.39 ERA and solid peripherals across a career-high 154 innings.

If Nelson can simply repeat his season, the D-backs might have enough pitching to complement their excellent trio of position players in Corbin Caroll, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo. Considering that Nelson has incrementally improved in three straight seasons, there’s also a chance that the 28-year-old can level up even more in 2026.

Jacob Lopez, LHP, ATH

The A’s boast one of the best groups of position players in all of baseball but the organization is still in search for quality pitchers at the big league level. That search is even more paramount considering how hitter-friendly West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park played last season. Luckily, the A’s might have found a hidden gem in Lopez.

The left-hander was an unexpected bright spot in 2025, as Lopez had a 4.08 ERA, 3.64 xERA and 113 strikeouts in 92 2/3 innings. At 6-foot-4, Lopez wasn’t overpowering with a 90.7 mph fastball but he flashed an impressive five-pitch mix and 95th percentile extension that led to an excellent 28.3 percent strikeout rate and 33.2 percent hard-hit rate. If Lopez can repeat those numbers in a larger sample, he could be leading the A’s rotation next season.