After stunning Trade Deadline, Preller's Padres primed for compelling offseason

As the Padres dominated the headlines at the Trade Deadline, the joke was that July 31 should be renamed “A.J. Preller Day.”

As the schedule races toward October, should we be preparing for A.J. Preller SZN?

There will be a number of storylines to follow this offseason. Will Kyle Tucker stay in Chicago? Will Alex Bregman opt out in Boston? Will the Yankees keep Cody Bellinger?

But no team will be as fascinating to watch as Preller’s Padres, who are challenging the Dodgers in the National League West but will have significant work to do in order to do the same in 2026.

“The expectation with this group is always to go win a ring, go win a championship,” Preller said after his stunning Trade Deadline, which included five trades involving 22 players. “That's the goal.”

The core is in place. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill are signed through 2034, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts through 2033. Jake Cronenworth’s contract will keep him with the Padres through 2030. Ramón Laureano’s $6.5 million club option is expected to be picked up, and Gavin Sheets is arbitration-eligible for two more years. Catcher Freddy Fermin, acquired prior to the Deadline, is under club control for four more years.

That would seem to put the lineup in a good place moving forward, but the pitching staff -- which entered Wednesday with an NL-best 3.65 ERA -- is far less certain.

Starters Dylan Cease and Michael King are headed for free agency, and closer Robert Suarez is expected to opt out of his contract. The rotation entering the offseason is led by Nick Pivetta (who is having a career-best season at age 32), Yu Darvish (who turned 39 last month) and Joe Musgrove, who will be 33 and is returning from Tommy John surgery.

As with the rotation, the bullpen situation is fluid. In addition to Suarez’s likely opt-out, Jason Adam’s ruptured quad tendon could keep him out for part of 2026, and Wandy Peralta can also opt out of the final three years and $13.15 million of his deal. The Padres could have multiple bullpen spots to address this winter, although Mason Miller -- San Diego’s top Deadline acquisition -- can easily slide into the closer’s role if the Padres decide against turning him back into a starter.

“They’ll still have a solid core of players to build around,” an NL executive said. “I can’t see a scenario where they don’t continue to work on adding pieces that they think can help them win a championship.”

In addition to Cease, King and Suarez, the Padres face the loss of three-time batting champ Luis Arraez and midseason pickup Ryan O’Hearn, who are also headed for free agency.

Figuring out how Preller and the Padres will approach the offseason may come down to one key question.

“How much money will they have to spend?” an American League executive asked. “That is an important factor in the course that they take, as is how they perform in the playoffs.”

Assuming all of the above plays out as expected, San Diego will have roughly $152 million committed to nine players: Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, Pivetta, Musgrove, Darvish, Cronenworth, Laureano and Yuki Matsui. Arbitration raises for Adrian Morejon, Adam, Fermin, Sheets and Miller will add to that number.

If the Padres are determined to stay beneath the $244 million Competitive Balance Tax threshold -- and it’s unclear whether that will be the case -- it will present Preller with another opportunity to get creative.

“I think he’ll do what he always does,” an NL executive said. “He’ll find a way to go after some big names.”

If spending big is off the table, the trade market could be an option. But after dealing away 12 prospects in his Deadline deals -- including San Diego’s then-No. 1 (Leo De Vries) and seven others ranked between third and 17th in MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 list for the club -- the Padres may not have the prospect capital to make big moves via trade.

“It never seems like they do,” an NL executive said. “But they always find a taker.”

The idea of the Padres bringing back both Cease and King seems like a long shot, although they figure to try re-signing one of the starters. Executives were split as to which pitcher they would try to sign; Cease is the more durable arm, but King’s upside when healthy is higher.

“It might be price-dependent,” an NL exec said. “Or they could go in another direction altogether and trade for a lower-cost starter.”

Whatever Preller opts to do this winter, the consensus among his rival executives is that the Padres aren’t going anywhere any time soon.

“A reasonable baseline assumption is that A.J. will continue to do what he’s always done in San Diego: attempt to maximize the current season’s roster while worrying about the future when he gets there,” an NL executive said. “How that plays out exactly is anyone’s guess. But we shouldn’t assume that his M.O. is going to change all of a sudden just because the Padres will be losing a handful of impactful players."