Nola named Game 3 starter for Phils, with Ranger ready behind him

PHILADELPHIA -- Aaron Nola’s 2025 campaign has not gone the way that he or the Phillies ever could have envisioned.

One of the most consistent and durable starting pitchers in Major League Baseball over the past decade, Nola posted a 6.01 ERA while making just 17 starts during an injury-riddled regular season.

And yet, the Phillies are turning to the veteran righty with their season on the line in a must-win Game 3 of the National League Division Series against the Dodgers on Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium.

The decision to go with Nola over Ranger Suárez came as a shock to many -- but Suárez figures to also have a significant role in Game 3.

“You're going to see Ranger tomorrow,” manager Rob Thomson said on Tuesday afternoon. “I would be shocked if you don't see Ranger tomorrow.”

This will be Nola’s 11th career postseason start -- but his first in a potential elimination game.

“I’m going to go out and compete as best as I can, and try to put the guys in a good position to win a baseball game,” Nola said following the Phillies’ 4-3 loss in Game 2 on Monday night. “Obviously, we’re 0-2 right now, so going into L.A., we’ve obviously got to get a win and just take it inning by inning and pitch by pitch.”

Though Nola is the longest-tenured Phillie and certainly has a proven track record, he went just 5-10 this season. He missed three months from mid-May to mid-August due to a sprained right ankle and a stress fracture in one of his ribs.

Nola’s 6.01 ERA is the second-highest regular-season ERA by any pitcher to start a potential elimination game in postseason history. Oliver Pérez had a 6.55 ERA in 2006 before starting Game 7 of the NLCS for the Mets. He tossed six innings of one-run ball and took a no-decision in a loss to the Cardinals.

Suárez has had an up-and-down season in his own right, but ultimately finished with a 3.20 ERA in 26 starts. He also has a 1.43 career ERA over 37 2/3 postseason innings.

Given the off-day following both Game 1 and Game 2, the Phillies need only three starters for this series, regardless of how long it goes. Game 1 starter Cristopher Sánchez and Game 2 starter Jesús Luzardo are lined up for Games 4 and 5, if necessary.

That left Thomson to decide between Nola and Suárez for Game 3.

“I'd regret having either one of those guys not pitch in this series,” Thomson said.

Including the postseason, all 295 of Nola's big league appearances have come as a starter. Suárez, meanwhile, has pitched in just about every role imaginable during his eight seasons with the Phillies. He’s made plenty of relief appearances, including two in the postseason -- and even locked down the NL pennant-clinching save in the 2022 NLCS.

So, with Thomson likely planning to use both Nola and Suárez in Game 3, the order in which he deploys them came down to that experience.

“[Nola’s] more comfortable starting,” Thomson said. “The numbers on their lefties are very similar, Ranger vs. Nola. And the trust factor -- I have trust in both of them, don't get me wrong. But Nola has pitched in some really big games for us in the last couple of years.”

Thomson will undoubtedly have a quick hook with the Phillies’ season on the line, but even if Nola is pitching well, it’s possible he’s asked only to get through the Dodgers’ lineup one time.

Suárez will be in the bullpen from the start of the game. If Nola falters early, Thomson would likely use a traditional reliever to escape the inning and bring in Suárez to start the ensuing frame.

Despite his struggles this season, it’s worth noting that Nola has typically navigated the opposing lineup pretty well the first time through. Opponents hit just .252 with a .693 OPS against Nola when facing him for the first time. That OPS jumped to .797 the second time through -- and 1.005 the third time.

That said, Nola entered the postseason on a high note after saving arguably his best start of the year for his final start of the regular season. He pitched a season-high eight innings against the Twins on Sept. 26, all while racking up a season-high nine strikeouts and allowing just one run off two hits.

“His last start was phenomenal,” Thomson said. “That's the Nola we've seen. So I'm banking that we're going to get that.”

The Phillies certainly need it if they want to avoid their second straight NLDS exit.

“You’ve got to take it one game at a time,” Nola said. “You can’t get three wins in Game 3, right? So we’ve got to take it one game at a time.”