As Braves figure out rotation, they're looking for a 'playoff starter'

NORTH PORT, Fla. -- The encouraging medical updates the Braves received about Grant Holmes and Reynaldo López this winter might have lessened the urgency to address the starting rotation. But president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos still continued his pursuit of a frontline starter.

“We’ve been looking for a playoff starter,” Anthopoulos said. “We have had a lot of conversations and explored a lot of things with guys that we thought could slot into the top three [rotation spots].”

A couple weeks ago, the Braves were planning to open the season with Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach as their top three starters. So, the bar to fit as a top starter in Atlanta was certainly higher than it was before the team recently learned Schwellenbach will be sidelined into at least June while recovering from arthroscopic surgery to remove bone spurs from his right elbow.

So, has the scope widened since Schwellenbach exited a Jan. 30 side session feeling tightness in his right elbow?

“It definitely opens it up some,” Anthopoulos said. “But Schwellenbach is a frontline guy. I think you're always looking to add -- when you can -- depth and bodies. And, I think you're weighing, ‘Who are those opportunities going to come at the expense of?’”

Many Braves fans expressed disappointment this week when free agent Chris Bassitt reportedly agreed to a one-year, $18.5 million deal with the Orioles. The 36-year-old pitcher has made 30-plus starts and totaled 170-plus innings each of the past four years. He seemed like a good fit even before Schwellenbach’s injury was revealed.

Had the Braves signed Bassitt, Holmes likely would have been the odd man out in the rotation. Holmes is out of options, but he could remain with the club as the swingman in the bullpen.

Accounting for Schwellenbach’s absence, the top fifth starter candidates are Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz and Hurston Waldrep. Waldrep wowed many, including Sale, with the live batting practice session he completed on Thursday. He has a chance to be a frontline starter by the end of the season. But with Elder and Wentz out of options, one of them might be a better fit to begin the year as the fifth starter.

Why? Well, rotation depth is incredibly valuable, and both Elder and Wentz would be claimed by another club if they aren’t on Atlanta’s Opening Day roster as a starter or reliever.

If the Braves were to sign free agents Lucas Giolito or Zac Gallen, Elder or Wentz would be the odd man out. Either could be protected by being moved to the bullpen.

Regardless of what the Braves do, there will be injury risks surrounding both Holmes and López.

Holmes was shut down in late July with right elbow discomfort. An MRI showed a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament and a partial tear in his flexor tendon. But he was throwing side sessions again in October and has arrived in camp feeling great. He thinks the UCL tear might have been pre-existing.

As for López, he made one start before undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery last year. The right-hander felt great at the end of the season and has come to camp with no restrictions. Maybe cleaning some debris from his shoulder was all he needed. But it would be easier to be optimistic if his arm woes didn’t begin during the final two months of his 2024 All-Star season.

But the Braves seem willing to take this calculated gamble. If the season were to begin today, the rotation would be Sale, Strider, López, Holmes and either Elder or Wentz, with Waldrep just waiting for what might be a lasting spot within the rotation.

Waldrep and highly regarded prospect JR Ritchie (MLB Pipeline’s No. 90 overall) could both be part of the rotation at some point this season, and there’s always a chance Schwellenbach could be ready at some point.

But for now, there’s at least reason to question if the Braves will have enough quality starting pitching to get through the 162-game season in competitive fashion.

“We’re going to continue to have discussions all Spring Training,” Anthopoulos said. “There’s still guys out there and guys you can get through trade. But again, we like the four [top starters], and we like the guys competing for the fifth spot as well.”