Analysis: How Braxton Ashcraft’s breakout season could be getting even better

ST. LOUIS – The slicing and dicing Braxton Ashcraft did through the St. Louis Cardinals lineup on Thursday was certainly impressive, both in execution and circumstance.

With a series to win and a four-game losing streak to shrink in the rearview mirror, Ashcraft understood the assignment and shoved: seven innings, one run allowed and nine strikeouts.

It was the fourth start of at least seven innings for Ashcraft in his last six assignments, his MLB-high fifth of at least 6 2/3 innings.

“Seeing it from behind the mound, I don’t know how anyone ever hits it,” said Brandon Lowe after the Pirates’ 6-2 victory at Busch Stadium.

What the Pirates have on their hands with Ashcraft is impressive. He has the makings of another ace, with premium velocity, a mature approach and two devastating breaking balls.

The third part of that might be downright scary for hitters. It’s also worth a deeper discussion.

Against the Cardinals, Ashcraft threw his slider 34% of the time, up from his season usage rate of 21%. Conversely, he used his curveball 22% of the time, down slightly from how frequently he’s been throwing it (26%).

There’s a reason, too.

This offseason, Ashcraft said he made a concerted effort to work more on his curveball. It produced very good results in 2025 (.122 batting average against), but Ashcraft has never been the type to remain satisfied.

With the big-picture goal of pitching deeper into games – something he’s done very well – Ashcraft knew he needed to have multiple offerings to combat a lineup the third time.

“You give hitters the opportunity to see the same pitch three times, they’re probably going to do something with it,” Ashcraft said.

Which is why he spent so much time on his curveball over the winter, ensuring he can get it to any location in any count. The slider, which was Ashcraft’s primary breaking ball last season, was shelved and trusted; the 26-year-old Texan has always been able to rediscover a feel for it quickly.

Through his first half-dozen starts, Ashcraft placed a heavy emphasis on his curveball – and it obviously worked. Thursday’s start dropped Ashcraft’s ERA to 2.89. He currently sits 19th across MLB in that category, three spots behind Paul Skenes.

But the feel with his slider has been catching up fast. On Thursday, Ashcraft dotted the zone with the pitch, using it to rack up five whiffs and punctuate three of his career-high-tying nine strikeouts.

In other words, Ashcraft has become a stud starter who eats innings, who throws strikes and attacks with heat and who has two sharp, distinct breaking balls.

To quote Skenes, good luck.

“I found the slider through my Tommy John rehab,” Ashcraft said. “It’s just one of those things, through the offseason, it’s one of the easier pitches for me to find and locate. The curveball is a big point of emphasis. It’s a big pitch. It requires a little bit more attention than the slider.

“There’s been a big emphasis on getting the curveball to where it needs to be. I’ve kind of just let the slider come naturally. As the volume increases, the slider has gotten to where it was when I came up last year.”

That place is a .225 average against, a .333 slugging percentage and a 32.4% whiff rate. All very good numbers.

The entire mix has allowed Ashcraft to stick around longer in games, the right-hander logging 62 1/3 innings, seventh-most in MLB. Ashcraft’s entire body of work should be attracting more attention around the league, although it seems the secret is still not out.

Skenes and Mitch Keller have made the MLB All-Star Game, and Ashcraft has been pitching every bit as well as those looking to make a run at the Midsummer Classic.

And he’s only nearing his one-year anniversary in the big leagues, which arrives May 26.

It’s crazy to think about … but not if you consider the Pirates’ recent success developing pitchers. The Pirates received calls on Ashcraft a few offseasons ago and refused to budge.

We’re very much seeing why now.

The diverse pitch mix has allowed Ashcraft to rack up strikeouts – 65, 10th in MLB – but also to comport himself well in tough situations. With runners in scoring position, opponents are hitting just .079 against Ashcraft, fourth-lowest of any qualified pitcher.

How Ashcraft worked on his curveball this winter, as well as the recent surge his slider has been experiencing, help explain why.

When you couple them with a fastball, a sinker, strike-throwing and an advanced feel for pitching, it’s easy to see why Ashcraft has had such an impressive season.

The stuff is really hard to hit.

“Anything in any count and pitching inside have been big for him,” Pirates manager Don Kelly said. “He’s been able to get guys off the plate and own the inside part. Then it opens up the offspeed and for him to be able to go to different pitches in different counts.”

Added Lowe, “When he’s out there rolling, he can throw any of his pitches in the zone. It’s a lot of pitches to try and cover.”

Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH.