Analysis: The good, bad and unknown with the Pirates after one month

As they often do, the Pirates found a way to cram a lot into the first month of the season.

There was the 1-3 start featuring a frustrating opening series in New York. They’re currently trying to snap a five-game losing streak that includes getting swept by the Cardinals at PNC Park. In between, the Pirates looked pretty darn good at 15-8.

So, which is it?

Good question. And also not something we can answer in five weeks.

But there have been myriad storylines. With the team headed west (to Arizona and San Francisco) Sunday, I’ve broken them down into the good, the bad and the unknown.

The good

• I’ll start with the offense because that’s why the Pirates' 16-16 record feels so different than 12-19 a year ago. They’re actually equipped to compete — even with some slow starts recently. It’s a simply a matter of doing other stuff more consistently, which I’ll address.

But as lousy as the Pirates were offensively last year, they’re currently tied for ninth in runs scored with 153. They’re 13th in homers (34) and batting average (.244) and 19th in OPS (.703).

Has it been perfect? No, absolutely not. But it's been more strength than hindrance.

• Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn have been great additions.

Lowe: .252 average, .890 OPS, eight doubles, eight homers, 20 RBIs, 16 runs

O’Hearn: .306 average, .875 OPS, four doubles, five homers, 20 RBIs, 16 runs

They’ve fit seamlessly into the clubhouse and assumed leadership roles. It was evident from Opening Day, and it hasn’t changed.

• Oneil Cruz has 26 RBIs, one shy of Willie Stargell’s 1971 club record for March/April and tying what Xavier Nady did in 2008. Cruz already has nine homers after hitting 20 last season and is batting .342 versus lefties. There’s been bad, too. See below.

• There were plenty of questions about Mitch Keller after how he finished last season. Those have been answered, at least for now, though it’s certainly fair to take a wait-and-see approach with his recent second-half trends.

But so far, Keller has been consistent and very good: 3.18 ERA in six starts, walking 11 and striking out 25 over 34 innings.

• Nick Gonzales saw his 10-game hitting streak snapped Thursday, but it’s hard to ignore what he’s done: team-high .317 average, plus hitting .347 with 15 RBIs with runners on. The defense has looked like a second baseman moving to third, sure. But it’s hard to argue with the bat.

• Recency bias hurts this, but there have been some solid performances in the bullpen. Gregory Soto (1.84) and Yohan Ramirez (1.83) have ERAs under two. Soto has a 0.82 WHIP. Ramirez has worked the fifth-most innings of any MLB reliever. Mason Montgomery hasn’t been scored on in nine straight, walking three and striking out 12 in those 8 2/3 innings. Isaac Mattson had a scoreless-inning streak of 15 1/3 innings prior to yesterday.

I know there have been blowups. The middle relief must be addressed. Still, the group has a 3.74 ERA, eighth-lowest in MLB.

• Konnor Griffin could fit in both categories. He was hitting .189 midway through April but has upped that to .259 over the past 14, that stretch including two homers and stolen bases. Plate discipline has improved, though his strikeout (29.2%, 17th percentile) and whiff (33.9%, 11th) rates need work. Speed and athleticism are obvious. Still trending more up than down.

The bad

• Hard to not start with Marcell Ozuna given his contract and lack of offensive production. Ozuna right now has third-lowest OPS (.466) of any qualified position player. He’s slashing .162/.224/.242 while striking out 27.1% (29 in 107 plate appearances) of the time. He’s had a three-part first month a lot like the Pirates:

First 11 games: .070, no extra-base hits
Six in the middle: .385, two doubles, two homers
Last nine: .100, no extra-base hits

Crazy as it might sound, I still think he’ll snap out of it. He’s done this before.

• The offense on the whole has been better, but there’s room for improvement when it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position, something that has contributed to the five-game losing streak.

On the season, the Pirates are hitting .228 with runners in scoring position, 26th in MLB. Their 88 strikeouts in that situation are the most of any club. Has to be better.

• Pittsburgh’s defensive execution has lacked. If you look at all-encompassing stats like defensive runs saved (FanGraphs) or fielding run value (Baseball Savant), the Pirates have actually fared reasonably well. Only 10 teams have a better DRS (7). Six have a better FRV (-3).

Traditional numbers aren’t good. They’ve made 19 errors, which is way too many and sixth-most in MLB. Their fielding percentage (.983) is also the sixth-lowest. We knew there would be defensive deficiencies, but these numbers should be better.

• As a team, the Pirates are issuing too many walks; their 126 are the eighth-most in MLB. Some of that has been connected to the starters, who’ve been good (3.88 ERA, tied for ninth-lowest) but not elite.

Those guys have actually pitched to a 4.95 ERA over the past 17, which is way too high and sizable departure from how it looked over the first 15 (2.75).

The unknown

• What will happen to Bubba Chandler? There’s a ton of ability, and we’ve seen what it looks like when he’s on. But he also has a 4.97 ERA and has the fourth-most walks (20) of any MLB pitcher. The Pirates need more consistency from Chandler.

• Do they keep the same catching arrangement? Only Washington (.459) has a worse OPS from catchers than Pittsburgh (.488). Henry Davis and Joey Bart are both hitting under .200, but we’re seeing some interesting trends in the Minor Leagues.

Endy Rodriguez started slow but has been hitting of late. Over his past 10, Rodriguez is 14 for 39 (.359) with five doubles, five RBIs and 10 walks for Triple-A Indianapolis. Meanwhile, Rafael Flores Jr. has homered three times in his past 10 games, including a 466-foot shot.

Davis has done a solid job handling the pitching staff, but at some point they’re going to need more offense from that spot.

• Jared Triolo will return to the MLB club soon. He’ll have a role, but how does that look? It might be tough to take Gonzales’ bat out of the lineup if he keeps hitting. At the same time, Triolo offers a clear defensive upgrade at third.

• Which direction does this go with Bryan Reynolds? He’s walking 17.5% of the time, trouncing his previous career-best mark of 11.6% in 2021, and has a 114 OPS+ (100 is average), an upgrade over 2025 (99) and close to his career figure (119).

The issue: Reynolds is slugging .377, the second-worst for him behind 2020 (.357). He’s on pace for just 35 extra-base hits compared to 57 last season and an average of 58 the past five seasons. Are the walks a way to get on base while getting on track? Or are we seeing something more?

• Do they keep Cruz in the leadoff spot? The home runs and RBIs are great. However, Cruz trails only Washington’s James Wood in strikeouts (48) and has a .321 on-base percentage that’s 107th in MLB. Over his past 16, Cruz is hitting .186 with a .688 OPS and 31 strikeouts in 77 plate appearances (40.3%). The power is great. But less boom or bust would help.

Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH on X.