Analysis: These six surprises have helped the Pirates get off to a fast start

DALLAS — Through the first 22 games, the Pirates have unquestionably been among the better stories in baseball.

They’ve hoisted cones and donned a welder’s mask. In its most recent Power Rankings, MLB.com has the Pirates ranked fifth, ahead of every other NL Central club.

It’s been a fun start, and it has also included plenty of success stories. Here are six that stand out, selected because there was at least some question whether it would work out this way.

Note: Paul Skenes being really good wasn’t exactly a question prior to the 2026 season, hence why his performance doesn’t fit the spirit of this list.

1. Braxton Ashcraft has been elite.

The Pirates have the third-lowest ERA in the sport (3.22), the second best in the National League, but it hasn’t solely been because of Skenes. It also hasn’t just been because of Mitch Keller or Bubba Chandler.

No, there’s another right-hander who’s been pitching better than all of them in Braxton Ashcraft.

In his first full big league season, Ashcraft leads MLB in expected ERA at 1.98, while only two pitchers have a lower FIP (1.81). When looking at FanGraphs’ calculation of wins above replacement (fWAR), only six pitchers in either league have accumulated more than Ashcraft’s mark of 1.2.

Traditionally speaking, Ashcraft has pitched to a 2.38 ERA in four starts (22 2/3 innings), walking seven and striking out 27. Whether it’s been velocity or his use of spin, specifically a sharp curveball, Ashcraft has been downright nasty.

2. Entering the season, there were fair questions about the fifth starter spot. Sign a lefty, many argued. There was also concern about Carmen Mlodzinski reprising his role as a starter.

Here’s guessing those concerns have dissipated. Mlodzinski been that good, pitching to a 1.77 ERA in four outings (three starts) while posting the 16th-best FIP in MLB at 2.49.

Mlodzinski has yet to allow a homer and has a barrel rate of 1.7%, which puts him in the 89th percentile across MLB.

The right-hander has his splitter to thank. Opponents are hitting just .120 against the pitch and slugging a mere .200. It has become a truly elite weapon, its run value (3) making it the fourth-best pitch on the Pirates’ entire staff.

(Ashcraft’s curveball and the four-seamers of Keller and Isaac Mattson are just a tick better.)

3. The offense has gone from weakness to strength. And the second of those terms probably doesn’t do it justice.

The idea in Spring Training was if the Pirates could jump 10 spots or so in runs, it might be enough when combined with this pitching staff. Pittsburgh has been far better than that.

Only six teams have scored more than the Pirates’ 113 runs. They’re fourth in on-base percentage (.342) and OPS (.744), sixth in slugging (.402), tied for sixth in homers (26) and seventh in batting average (.253).

Imagine telling yourself in October 2025 that those types of numbers and rankings would be possible.

Ryan O’Hearn has been a great addition. Oneil Cruz has taken a step forward. He and Bryan Reynolds have lineup protection, and the latter finally looks like himself again. Spencer Horwitz has enjoyed a much better April. Marcell Ozuna is rounding into form. And Brandon Lowe ..

4. Yeah, he’s been everything the Pirates have expected and more.

Lowe’s leadership has been outstanding. He’s also played a solid second base, as evidenced by his Outs Above Average of 2; only six second basemen throughout MLB have fared better.

But where Lowe has made the biggest difference has been at the plate, especially when it comes to hitting heat and delivering professional at-bats.

Lowe’s walk rate (13.6%) is a career-high, while he’s striking out just 20.5% of the time, the lowest of his career. He’s also slugging .657 against fastballs, better than he’s ever done against that pitch.

Only seven in MLB have accumulated more than Lowe’s 1.1 fWAR to this point, the result of a .975 OPS, including seven home runs, and 18 RBIs.

5. When it comes to year-over-year improvements, few throughout baseball have seen a more drastic change than Gregory Soto, who has been part of the Pirates’ two-headed monster at the back end of the bullpen.

Soto has seen his average exit velocity drop by 7.8 mph, the fourth-largest drop of any pitcher. His hard hit percentage (-18.9%) qualified as the seventh-biggest drop.

Opponents are hitting just .077 against Soto’s sinker, which he’s throwing 42.2% of the time. It’s the best hitters have fared against any of his regular offerings.

6. Remember when Cruz was a mess against left-handed pitching?

The Pirates center fielder batted just .102 when facing it last season. A year later, after hiring his own southpaw to throw batting practice in the Dominican Republic, Cruz has upped his average versus lefties to .393.

He’s already matched his number of hits against lefties from 2026 (11), while three of those have sailed over the fence.

Cruz still isn’t a finished product, but there’s been a bunch of progress, giving the Pirates a unique force atop their lineup.

Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH.