The key for Painter finding success in The Show? Fixing his fastball

PHILADELPHIA -- Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly approached Andrew Painter in the dugout in the middle of the third inning on Thursday at Citizens Bank Park.

Painter had been hit hard in the first three innings in a 12-1 loss to the A’s, so Mattingly told Painter he could stop there if he wanted. Painter declined. He said he would like to continue.

“I think you have to learn how to deal with that stuff,” said Painter, the Phillies' No. 2 prospect (and MLB Pipeline's No. 21 overall).

Painter allowed eight runs in 3 2/3 innings to fall to 1-4 with a 6.89 ERA. He allowed three homers -- each on a two-strike fastball.

In his first seven appearances as a rookie, Painter, 23, has shown flashes of the talent that has had folks drooling since the Phillies made him the 13th overall pick in the 2021 Draft. But he also has shown how much he needs to improve before he becomes a top-of-the-rotation starter.

He has time. The Phillies have Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola pitching ahead of him, so he shouldn’t feel the pressure to carry a rotation.

“I think he’s a kid who knows he’s got good stuff and he’s confident in what he can do,” Mattingly said.

Painter isn’t the first top prospect to struggle. Cole Hamels was 1-3 with a 5.50 ERA in his first seven starts in 2006.

Hamels was mostly a fastball-changeup pitcher then. Painter throws six pitches, but his fastballs have not been effective. Batters entered Thursday hitting .348 against his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, which ranked 19th highest out of 136 pitchers (minimum 200 fastballs thrown).

“That pitch, in particular,” Mattingly said, “it’s something that we recognize.”

Painter’s fastballs average a combined 96.2 mph, which is almost 2 mph faster than the league average (94.3 mph). But they have generated only 15 whiffs out of 160 swings, including just three of 23 on Thursday. The 9.4% whiff rate ranks 118th out of 124 pitchers (minimum 100 swings).

Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker and Jacob Wilson each homered off an inside fastball.

“I think that was part of the setup,” Painter said. “I think the approach there was, everything hard was in and everything soft was away. So I would imagine an approach there was -- [if] they saw it in, they thought it was a fastball. If they saw it away, they figured it was spinning or they were taking it.”

Statcast shows the pitches have below average movement compared to pitchers who throw those pitches at a similar velocity and release point. His four-seam fastball averages -0.7 inches less vertical break and -3.2 inches less horizontal break, while his sinker averages -4.0 inches less vertical break and -2.6 inches less horizontal break.

“Specfically, the last two starts, I think the shape has been a lot better,” Painter said. “I made a couple tweaks. It’s definitely been flying better. The results haven’t been there. But like I said, it’s probably the process and the setup. I think probably moving in and out a little more. I think throwing the four[-seam] outside will help that.”

Painter will work on these things before his next start, which should come next week in Boston.

“The positive is his response when I gave him a chance to come out of the game,” Mattingly said. “It could have been a spot where he took his ball and went home, but he didn't. He wanted to go back out.”