Can new baserunning coach coax 20 SBs from a Brave with 7 in his career?

NORTH PORT, Fla. -- Antoan Richardson strengthened his reputation as a baserunning guru when he helped Juan Soto shock the baseball world with 38 stolen bases last season. So now that Richardson has switched from the Mets’ coaching staff to the Braves’, might Austin Riley tally at least 15 steals this year?

“He’s going to get 20,” Braves center fielder Michael Harris II said.

Just to be clear. We’re talking about the same Riley who has totaled seven stolen bases through his first six big league seasons. So why are we even talking about the possibility of him tripling his career total this year?

“Antoan was the mastermind behind [Soto’s 38 steals],” Braves catcher Drake Baldwin said before Atlanta's 7-6 win over the Yankees on Friday at CoolToday Park. “Now that we’ve got him on our staff, we can see how much passion he brings. I can see more than 15. I saw [Riley] steal a base the other day, and he made it look easy.”

One of the National League East’s most interesting offseason developments occurred in early November, when it was announced that the Braves had hired Jeremy Hefner to be their pitching coach and Richardson to be their first-base/baserunning coach. Both coaches had been with the division-rival Mets.

So why is Richardson highly regarded? Well, the Mets ranked last among all 30 teams in average sprint speed last year, but they ranked fifth in stolen bases. Those numbers certainly don’t jibe. As for the Braves, they ranked 29th in average sprint speed and 26th in stolen bases. Those numbers correlate.

Baldwin was behind the plate for eight of 13 games played against the Mets last year. So did he get the sense Richardson’s knowledge was aiding New York’s baserunners?

“I always felt like they were one step ahead,” Baldwin said. “I think that’s the best way to put it. We’d try to throw somebody out, and it was like, ‘Geez, they’re already halfway there.’ So it’s good to have him on our team.”

Before delving into what might set Richardson apart, it seems important to know whether he thinks Riley can swipe at least 15 bags this year.

“You never know,” Richardson said. “Maybe in June we can revisit this conversation.”

It’s not like Riley is slow. Harris (28.5 feet per second) was the only Braves regular with a better average sprint speed last year. OK, Riley isn’t going to be considered a burner with a sprint speed of 28.2 feet/second … but he’s faster than Soto, whose sprint speed was 25.8 feet/second in 2025.

Soto tied for the NL lead in steals and ranked 243 out of 271 players (min. 100 opportunities) in sprint speed. How is that possible?

“He told me he wanted to steal 30 bases, and I said to him, ‘I don't know if you’re fast enough, but you get on base enough,’” Richardson said. “I knew he would have the opportunities. All you can do is prepare, and if the situation presents itself, take advantage.”

Richardson’s ability to analyze pitchers’ tendencies on video and during games has been lauded by his co-workers and opponents. He seemingly meshed immediately with Braves manager Walt Weiss, who is attempting to make his offense more muti-dimensional than it has been the past couple of years. Instead of relying so heavily on home runs, Weiss might have Harris, Ozzie Albies and possibly Riley running more frequently.

Harris exited last season with 20 homers and 20 steals despite entering the All-Star break with MLB’s lowest OPS. Albies seems capable of stealing 20 bases for the first time since 2021, and a healthy Ronald Acuña Jr. might make a run at a second 40-40 season.

“Antoan knows how important baserunning is to me,” Weiss said. “It’s really important to him, and he’s made it important to the players.

“No one likes to do baserunning drills in Spring Training. It’s like the least favorite thing to do. But when we do our drills, guys are running like they are racing for the winning run. That’s Antoan. They can feel his passion.”

Braves first baseman Matt Olson heard this passion while playing the Mets the past couple of years.

“He's very interactive,” Olson said. “He's probably the most interactive coach over there. He just stays on guys, telling them if he likes a look or doesn’t like a look. Now that he’s been with us, you can see he really grinds on stuff.”

So will Richardson’s knowledge and feel for pitchers’ tendencies be enough for Riley to steal 15-plus bases this year?

“Riley could do it,” Olson said. “If you get a good read on a guy, speed shouldn’t be as big of a factor.”