The nasty pitch that could help Chapman evolve

Aroldis Chapman will turn 39 in February, and the flame-throwing marvel is thinking about what pitching might look like without his scintillating fastball.

“I’m not 25 anymore,” Chapman said. “I’m older. I’m not throwing 105 miles per hour every day. That’s the reality.”

Hold on a second: That’s actually something Chapman said nearly six years ago, as relayed to The Athletic at the onset of Spring Training in February 2021. Chapman -- at the time entering his age-33 season -- worked alongside Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake to bring back his splitter, a pitch he had not thrown since defecting from Cuba. He told The Athletic that he wanted to evolve into a pitcher, not a thrower.

Chapman has mostly lived up to his word. He has deployed his splitter pretty consistently in the six seasons since.

But could the splitter become an even bigger weapon for Chapman heading into 2027? And might this be necessary adjustment as Chapman continues to try and stave off Father Time?

The power lefty is obviously a fastball-first pitcher. He always has been ever since he burst onto the scene with historic triple-digit heat as a rookie in 2010.

But Chapman's velocity dipped last season. His 97.4 mph average fastball velo (four-seamers + sinkers) was the slowest in a single season in his 17-year career. He threw just 27 pitches at 100.0+ mph, his fewest in a non-shortened season. Chapman cracked 101 mph three times, which would be a positive for most pitchers. But this is Chapman we're talking about: He had thrown at least 10 101.0+ mph pitches in each of his previous 16 seasons.

This doesn't mean that Chapman's velo won't pick back up -- we've actually seen this play out before. In an injury-riddled 2022 campaign, Chapman's fastball averaged 97.7 mph. That shot up to 99.5 mph the very next season.

Without elite velo, though, Chapman’s four-seamer looked oddly mortal. The league hit .333 with a 17.7% whiff rate against Chapman’s four-seam fastball in 2026. That was the lowest swing-and-miss rate against his four-seamer in a single season in his career. And it actually missed bats at a lower rate than league average -- the average four-seam fastball in 2026 induced a 21.8% whiff rate. We do not think of Chapman as having a below-average fastball.

Maybe it is time for Chapman to evolve a bit. He has done so before. This is not the same pitcher who threw his four-seamer 87.6% of the time in 2012 with the Reds, blowing away hitters with gas. Chapman's first big change came in 2018, when he incorporated a two-seam fastball into his pitch mix. He prominently featured the pitch for the first time in '23, and now he throws it nearly as often as his four-seamer. The two-seamer gives hitters another look, and it may very well have sustained his career.

So, what's next? We don’t want to put too much stock into one appearance, but it’s hard to ignore what Chapman did on Sept. 23 against the Guardians, slamming the door on a tense 1-0 Red Sox victory.

Chapman struck out the side on 12 pitches. Five of the 12 pitches were splitters, and all five induced a swing-and-miss. Four of the five whiffs came on splitters out of the strike zone. All three of his strikeouts came against a splitter. It was the first time in his career that he recorded three strikeouts with his splitter in the same game.

All three Cleveland hitters flailed at the offering. And who could blame them?

That's the other part to all of this. Like everything that Chapman tends to throw, the splitter is a particularly nasty pitch.

Chapman throws a true power splitter. His variant averages 90.2 mph, which is six full ticks faster than the average splitter thrown by a left-handed pitcher (84.0 mph). The Phillies' Tim Mayza was the only lefty to throw a faster splitter in 2026, and Mayza threw just 23 splitters all season.

This is particularly unique coming from the left-hand side: Chapman was one of just seven lefties to throw at least 100 splitters last season. Meanwhile, 52 right-handed pitchers threw 100+ splitters in 2026.

Chapman's splitter comes in fast and drops straight down, carrying true to the hitter without much horizontal movement. Only five splitters (min. 50 pitches thrown) averaged less horizontal movement than Chapman's splitter did last season.

That makes it a perfect complement to his two fastball shapes, which also don't fade arm-side like some other fastballs do. Chapman's four-seamer, two-seamer and splitter all approach the hitter along a similar path. But the splitter drops 30.5 inches on its way to the plate, which is nearly a foot-and-a-half more than his fastballs.

The absence of spin helps create the tumbling action. Chapman's splitter averaged just 1,215 rpm last season, compared to his high-spin four-seamer (2,427 rpm). That's why his four-seamer carries through the zone.

Chapman also does an exceptional job tunneling his splitter with his two fastball shapes. They are all thrown on the same spin axis, or out of the same window. So, when they leave Chapman's hand, they look the same. But by the time they arrive to the plate, the splitter is not moving anything like either fastball variant.

The four-seamer stays relatively true. The sinker fades down and toward Chapman's arm side. The splitter spins even more in that direction, countering the hitter's initial expectation.

Here's what this all looks like.

That three-pitch combination is incredibly difficult for a batter to hit. They are gearing up for Chapman's triple-digit heat, and out of the hand, it looks like they're about to get an iconic fastball ... only for a splitter to come diving out of the strike zone. It is no wonder the pitch elicits so many cartoonish swings.

Just maybe, we'll see more of it from an ever-evolving Chapman in 2027.