Underselling? Overselling? Let's break down World Series odds

As of Friday morning, FanGraphs’ playoff odds were giving the Dodgers a 28.6% chance of winning the World Series -- more than double the odds of any other MLB team.

This begs an interesting question: Really??!

Don’t get it twisted. The Dodgers should absolutely be the favorites to win the World Series. They have the deepest and highest-ceiling roster of any MLB team.

It’s just that 28.6% odds are astronomically high for MLB.

A year ago, through the same number of games, the Dodgers’ odds were at 16.4%. Two years ago, they were at 19%. Certainly, the addition of Tarik Skubal and the relative weakness of the American League this season are important factors when assessing the Dodgers’ chances. But the last team to end a season with odds at least as high as the Dodgers’ current odds are right now was the 2019 Astros (35.2%), who, as it turns out, did not win the World Series.

Clearly, computers aren’t infallible. And come to think of it, neither are the Dodgers.

So let’s balance the math with some mood, taking a look at the FanGraphs-calculated World Series odds of the contenders and determining whether they “feel” like they are overselling or underselling a team’s chances.

10 PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGHER

1) Dodgers, 28.6%

How do those odds feel? Like the computers don’t know Shohei Ohtani is hurt

Why? Ohtani’s second-half slide and late-season IL placement compounds the potential for October offensive regression for a unit with a ton of miles on it.

The Dodgers have also been navigating late-inning uncertainty associated with the injuries and performance struggles of star closer Edwin Díaz, who also won’t have a ton of innings to right himself after his return from a neck issue.

And of course, there is the inherent volatility of short series, with the possibility that the Dodgers (who notably don’t hold the tiebreakers over the NL East-leading Braves or NL Central-leading Brewers) have to play the Wild Card Series again. It wasn’t an issue for them last year, but this year’s NL field likely poses stiffer competition than a series against the Reds that amounted to a scrimmage for L.A.

2) Brewers, 12%

How do those odds feel? Like they are not a “Miz”-take

Why? These are actually higher odds than the Brewers had a year ago at this time (9.4%), and they are higher than any team not named the Dodgers. So it’s hard to argue the projections aren’t showing Milwaukee any love here. The Brewers play smart baseball, with genuine starting depth, an elite bullpen and game management and a dynamic and athletic core that provides excellent defense and baserunning. Do you want to face Jacob Misiorowski twice in a short series? The objectively correct answer is no.

But to put the Brewers’ odds any higher would be to ignore the reality that the postseason tends to reward teams who can hit the ball over the fence. That’s not the Brewers’ game. They’re 30th in MLB in home runs. Doesn’t mean they can’t do it in the games that matter most, but there’s some healthy skepticism baked in here.

BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PERCENT

3) Yankees, 9.4%

How do those odds feel? Like a fairly accurate “Judge”-ment

Why? We’re in a strange position in the AL this year in which a team that is not even on pace to win its division has the highest World Series odds. Yet it’s not indefensible. While the Yankees are currently trending toward a date with the rival Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, where anything can happen in a short series, their raw run differential and power and the presence of Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole and Max Fried at the top of the rotation make them truly dangerous.

The obvious X-factor is Aaron Judge, who doesn’t have the greatest postseason track record even when fully healthy, let alone after missing much of the season. But again, the postseason rewards big arms and power bats, and the Yankees are simply the AL club best-positioned in both departments.

4) Rays, 9.2%

How do those odds feel? Slightly un-Ray-sonable.

Why? This is really no different than the Brewers’ conundrum. Yes, the Rays are vying for the AL’s top seed and the direct line to the Division Series that comes with it. They are also inordinately difficult to beat at home and could lock up home-field advantage through the AL bracket. And as tends to be the case with Rays teams, they are excellent at run prevention, maximizing platoon advantages, pinch-hitting, small ball, defense and baserunning. But like the Brewers, they will find it harder to win via their offensive strengths in October, where you’re going up the cream of each opponent’s crop and it is inherently more difficult to string base hits together.

All that said, there is a good argument that the Rays’ percentage should at least be up there with that of the Brewers, given the more open nature of the AL vs. the superpowers assembled in the NL. But again, one can understand why the Yankees, with their power, would be slightly ahead of the Rays, even with the extra series taken into account.

5) Phillies, 7.7%

How do those odds feel? Like someone spilled cheese whiz on the hard drive

Why? It’s not that 7.7% is too high in a vacuum. But it’s a little strange that the Phils rank ahead of the Braves, despite not overtaking them in the NL East (yet?). The discrepancy is a little easier to understand in the AL East, given the aforementioned power difference, but that’s not an issue here, and playing the Wild Card Series vs. having the bye is not a layup, no matter what those “rust vs. rest” people tell you.

Overall, the Phillies’ odds of winning feel as strong as in any season in the Dave Dombrowski era. They didn’t get it done in 2022 and have fallen frustratingly short in the years since, but with ace-caliber arms in Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo and Zack Wheeler, the distinct ability to change games with a single swing and the important addition of Luis Arraez to give the lineup a different, more postseason-ready dimension, they have the goods to overcome the Dodgers and anyone else.

Still, the Braves should probably be above the Phils as of now.

6) Red Sox, 6.4%

How do those odds feel? As confusing as navigating Boston’s winding, crooked streets

Why? Another non-division-leader ahead of the Braves? And a team currently in line for a road date in the Wild Card Series, at that? You could explain it as a byproduct of the weaker AL (and the Red Sox have played really well on the road this season), but, again, we already established that didn’t appear to be factored into the Rays’ percentage. And it’s not as if the Red Sox, for all their overall depth, are an elite home-run-hitting team.

Anyway, as with the Phillies, there’s nothing necessarily wrong with this percentage on its own. The Red Sox went on a midseason surge for the ages, and that doesn’t happen without tapping into or at least creating a special clubhouse cohesion. They’ve got a competitive rotation, dynamic outfield defense and a strong and varied offensive cast. We’ve seen that they can get as hot as anyone in history.

7) Braves, 5.5%

How do those odds feel? Frankly, un-“Weiss”

Why? No one’s claiming the Braves should be in Dodgers’ territory, but it is bizarre to see them behind a couple of AL Wild Cards here. They currently hold a home-field edge, and Truist Park has been good to them. And while their pitching staff has dealt with its share of injuries, Tyler Mahle has been a Trade Deadline godsend who should slot in behind Chris Sale, while manager Walt Weiss’ bullpen foursome of Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Didier Fuentes and Robert Suarez might actually be the best leverage grouping Atlanta has taken into October in recent years.

The Braves have a run differential north of 100 and have performed well against teams above .500 (they won the season series against the Phillies and Dodgers and split with the Brewers). So while the NL East is not yet in the bag for the Braves, they probably deserve a couple more ticks in the World Series odds.

BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PERCENT

8) Cubs, 4.7%

How do those odds feel? PCA (Perfectly Credible and Appropriate)

Why? The Cubs could go the distance on the might of their Pete Crow-Armstrong-fueled, best-in-MLB offense, which has depth and power and speed and will be a handful to even the best of pitching staffs. This is also a dynamic defensive team, which can go a long way in an environment that is so nip-and-tuck.

But the Cubs’ own pitching staff lacks elite starting rotation depth. Kevin Gausman is a proven October weapon but has been inconsistent since his Trade Deadline arrival, and the Cubs’ staff might have trouble matching wits with some of the others in this NL field. Between that and the Wild Card Series hurdle, it’s perfectly understandable why the historically unbalanced Cubs rank where they rank.

9) Astros, 4.5%

How do those odds feel? Not Astro-nomically high, but … a little high

Why? Houston’s pole position in the AL West says more about the division than it does the Astros. They have a negative run differential and are the ultra-rare team to dismiss their general manager in the midst of a possible division title run. Obviously, this is not a team on the same level as the juggernauts of Houston postseasons past.

While Yordan Alvarez can swing a series all by himself, the Astros lack the elite pitching depth that was once one of their trademarks and could have trouble against some of the heavy-hitting lineups in the field. So 4.5% might be a tick high here.

10) Guardians, 3.2%

How do those odds feel? Not nearly as ambitious as picking the Browns to win the Super Bowl, but still ambitious

Why? The Guardians are still behind the White Sox in the standings but above them in the odds. It’s hard to get behind that. While Cleveland’s pitching staff is durable and stout overall, the lack of premium power and general inconsistency of the offense is an issue, particularly with José Ramírez likely still feeling the effects of midseason hamate surgery. This team might advance on its ability to play tight, grind-it-out October games, but it is sub-.500 against teams with winning records and doesn’t have much margin for error.

11) White Sox, 2.4%

How do those odds feel? Like the Sox are under-“Rate”d

Why? Until or unless Cleveland takes over the division, the Sox should be ahead of the Guards, even if a first-round bye is not guaranteed for the AL Central winner. The Sox lack true, ace-caliber dominance atop the rotation but do have more quick-strike ability to clear the bases with a single swing. It will be fascinating to see whether their nothing-to-lose attitude two years after losing 121 games translates in October, where their inexperience might not be as daunting in this particular AL field.

BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PERCENT

12) Rangers, 1.5%
13) (tie) Padres and Blue Jays, 1.4%
15) Diamondbacks, 1.3%

How do these odds feel? Certainly within 1% of reality

Why? Hard to argue any of these teams should be higher, given their place in the standings. The Rangers are (ever so slightly) distinguished here because they actually still have a shot at a division title. The Blue Jays haven’t won more than four in a row all year, so any enthusiasm about their potential to get hot is muted. The Padres or Diamondbacks could be a handful for whichever team has the NL’s No. 3 seed, but they would still be swimming upstream in that tough NL field.

LESS THAN 1 PERCENT

16) Mariners, 0.3%
17) Orioles, 0.2%
18) (tie) Pirates and Twins, 0.1%

How do these odds feel? Upsetting, honestly

Why? Because when I picked the Mariners to win the World Series six months ago, I think I inadvertently, immediately set their odds at 0.3%. My apologies to everyone in Seattle.