Previewing -- and predicting -- Astros '25 season

This story was excerpted from Brian McTaggart’s Astros Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

HOUSTON -- The Astros may not be the juggernaut they were as recently as 2022 when they rolled through the postseason with an 11-2 record and beat the Phillies in the World Series, but they remain among the elites of the American League and will be looking to re-establish their place in the hierarchy.

Despite losing four key members of the 2022 championship team in the offseason -- third baseman Alex Bregman (Red Sox), right fielder Kyle Tucker (Cubs), starting pitcher Justin Verlander (Giants) and reliever Ryan Pressly (Cubs) -- the Astros have a solid lineup anchored by Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes, Yainer Diaz and top prospect Cam Smith.

Houston lacks some starting pitching depth, but the top four in the rotation -- Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Ronel Blanco -- is solid, and the bullpen is anchored by experienced arms in Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. After being swept by the Tigers in the AL Wild Card Series -- the first time Houston didn’t advance to the ALCS since 2016 -- the Astros are thirsty for more in ’25.

“I feel better than I did last year, to be honest with you,” second-year manager Joe Espada said. “There is a blend between veterans and youth that I really liked. I think last year, how we ended the season, we really used that momentum to build in camp and to really embrace the challenges that were ahead of us. I think we prepared ourselves really well to accomplish what we wanted to accomplish and I’m really happy where we’re at.”

What needs to go right?
Altuve handles left field. The nine-time All-Star who’s played 1,765 games at second base in his career, Altuve has made a much-publicized move to left this spring and will open the season at his new position. Altuve has shown the athleticism to handle the position, but dropped a pair of fly balls in Grapefruit League play and mistimed a jump at the wall in another occurrence, so the book is still out on whether he can be a viable option in left field.

Great unknown
The bullpen. Trading Pressly to the Cubs just before camp punched a big hole in Houston’s bullpen, where Hader (closer) and Abreu (setup) are the anchors. The club also returns Tayler Scott, who had a 2.23 ERA last year in 62 games, but there’s a lack of experienced depth after that, with lefties Bryan King and Steven Okert and right-hander Luis Contreras being counted on to get key outs. Rafael Montero, who was DFA’d last year, earned a bullpen spot, hoping to recapture his 2022 form. Long reliever Ryan Gusto is a rookie.

Team MVP will be ... Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez is coming off his fourth consecutive 30-plus-homer season, one in which he slashed .308/.392/.567 with 35 homers and 86 RBIs to solidify himself as one of baseball’s top sluggers. He earned his third consecutive AL All-Star nod and was named the team’s MVP in ’24. He’s going to be getting most of his at-bats at DH this year to keep him healthy, and Alvarez is hoping to notch his first career 40-homer season … or more. Could Alvarez break Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell’s club single-season record of 47 homers set 25 years ago?

Team Cy Young will be ... Hunter Brown
Nothing against Valdez, who was the team’s best starting pitcher last year and could very well put up better numbers in his final year before free agency in ’25, but Brown’s emergence last year sets him up to assume the role of ace. Brown was 0-4 with a 9.78 ERA in his first six starts last season before adding a sinker to his repertoire on May 5, which turned his season around. He went 11-5 with a 2.51 ERA in 147 innings in his final 25 games (24 starts) of the regular season. And he says he’s a lot more comfortable this year.

Bold prediction: Cam Smith wins Rookie of the Year
Smith, acquired from the Cubs in December’s blockbuster trade that sent Tucker to the Cubs, immediately became Houston’s top prospect and homered in his first two Grapefruit League at-bats. That set the stage for an eye-opening spring for Smith, who has played in only five games above High-A. Still, he showed incredible maturity and an advanced approach to the plate that forced the Astros to put him on the Opening Day roster at 22 years old. Smith, who was playing at Florida State at this time last year, will be the first Astros player to make his debut on Opening Day since Jeremy Peña in 2022.