Astros-Rays preview: AL MVP hopefuls face off with playoff implications on the line

Though not division rivals, the stakes are plenty high for both the Rays and Astros as the two first-place clubs prepare to meet for a weekend series at Tropicana Field.

The Rays’ lead in the American League East is identical to the Astros’ advantage in the AL West. Tampa Bay holds a three-game lead over the Yankees, while Houston holds a three-game advantage over the Rangers.

A drastic outcome, such as a sweep either way, could have lingering effects for both teams as they inch toward October. Let’s dive in.

The postseason picture: What’s at stake?

Rays: A lot. The Rays could clinch their first trip to the postseason since 2023 as soon as Friday night, and they would surely like to celebrate that as soon as possible then get back to their top priority of winning the division. The AL East likely won’t be decided until the Rays’ four-game, three-day series at Yankee Stadium from Sept. 22-24, but they would obviously like to have a lead heading into the final week of the season. No better place to do it than Tropicana Field, where they’ve been great all season, and no better time than now.

Astros: Houston eked out a series win in Philadelphia thanks to a timely Cam Smith home run off Jhoan Duran, but the Astros continue to cling to a tight lead in the AL West with 15 games remaining. Although nine of those 15 are against sub-.500 teams (Royals, Mariners, Athletics), the Astros still have six games against first-place clubs in the Rays and Braves. Given that the Rangers continue to hang around near the top of the division, the Astros can’t afford to stumble this weekend, thus opening the door for Texas.

What has been an area of strength for each team down the stretch?

Rays: They’ve been playing well in just about every area recently. Their lineup has come on strong thanks to the Trade Deadline addition of Liam Hicks and the red-hot hitting of Chandler Simpson, plus the usual contributions from Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero atop the order. The top of the rotation has been excellent thanks to Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez and the resurgent Freddy Peralta. The bullpen had a tough series in Texas, but closer Bryan Baker has converted 28 consecutive save opportunities and setup man Tyler Wells has brought another huge arm to the back end of the ‘pen.

Astros: The starting pitching has been very strong, thanks to Hunter Brown pitching like an ace (Wednesday's outing against the Phillies notwithstanding) and Hayden Wesneski excelling since he came off the injured list. Peter Lambert has been steady throughout the season, but the Astros have gotten occasional good outings from Ronel Blanco and Cristian Javier, as well. In 19 games since Aug. 21, Astros starters had a 3.06 ERA with six quality starts -- two by Brown and Wesneski and one by Lambert. Brown has thrown 92 innings this year (he missed 2 1/2 months with a shoulder strain) and Wesneski has pitched 45 2/3 innings since returning from Tommy John surgery, so workload won't be an issue in late September.

What are some of the weaknesses that could make each team vulnerable in the final 2 1/2 weeks?

Rays: Injuries have hit the Rays' roster over the past week or so. Their rotation is without Shane McClanahan. Their bullpen is down Garrett Cleavinger and Manuel Rodríguez. Their defensive anchor at shortstop, Taylor Walls, is also sidelined. They’ve created enough depth to withstand those hits for the time being, but any further injuries would create additional challenges, especially in the bullpen. It’s also important that they continue to get contributions from the bottom of the order so they’re not overly dependent upon the “Big Four” up top.

Astros: The offense, which was a strength of the team early in the season while the pitching was in shambles, has scuffled for six weeks. Houston’s offense is slashing .233/.305/.391 since Aug. 1. The drop of production coincides with Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez going into prolonged slumps. Peña and Alvarez have been Houston’s best two hitters by a wide margin, but neither is swinging the bat well entering the final two weeks of the season. Alvarez has three homers since Aug. 1 and has lost his grip on the AL Triple Crown, which seemed like a foregone conclusion a few weeks ago. Peña is slashing .190/.240/.362 with five homers in his first 33 games since Aug. 1.

This series is highlighted by two sluggers competing for the AL home run title, and possibly MVP. Here's why...

… Yordan Alvarez should win MVP: Even with subpar production over the past month (.241/.371/.388, 3 HR, 12 RBIs over his past 33 games), Alvarez’s numbers may make him the first Triple Crown winner since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and only the second since 1967.

Whether Alvarez winds up winning the traditional Triple Crown or not, his numbers this season have been overwhelming. He’s leading the AL in all three slash-line categories at .310/.427/.590, also topping the leaderboards in runs scored, walks, OPS+ and total bases while ranking second in home runs and RBI.

The fact that Alvarez has played only 23 of his 145 games in left field might be a strike against him, but the slugger has carried an Astros lineup that doesn’t feature another everyday player with an OPS of .800, helping Houston enter the home stretch atop the AL West.

… Junior Caminero should win MVP: Alvarez has the better overall numbers, including a massive OPS advantage, but Caminero has two compelling arguments in his favor. One, he’s the best player on the AL’s best team. Plus, he plays defense every day -- literally every day, as he hasn’t missed a start this season -- whereas Alvarez has mostly been a designated hitter.

The rest of Caminero’s case probably depends on the outcome of Alvarez’s Triple Crown chase. If Caminero (39) stays ahead of Alvarez (38) atop the home run leaderboard, that’s another point in his favor. And Alvarez (.310) is still fending off two of Caminero’s teammates, Chandler Simpson (.308) and Yandy Díaz (.305), for the batting title, not to mention Pete Alonso (and Caminero) for the AL lead in RBIs.

If Alvarez doesn’t have the edge statistically for all three, much less any of those three categories, voters could be less inclined to give him the nod and instead favor Caminero. Especially if the Rays secure the AL’s top seed.